The ongoing COVID-19 epidemic continues to spread within and outside of China, despite several social distancing measures implemented by the Chinese government. Limited epidemiological data are available, and recent changes in case definition and reporting further complicate our understanding of the impact of the epidemic, particularly in the epidemic’s epicenter. Here we use previously validated phenomenological models to generate short-term forecasts of cumulative reported cases in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China. Using daily reported cumulative case data up until 13 February 2020 from the National Health Commission of China, we report 5- and 10-day ahead forecasts of cumulative case reports. Specifically, we generate forecasts using a generalized logistic growth model, the Richards growth model, and a sub-epidemic wave model, which have each been previously used to forecast outbreaks due to different infectious diseases. Forecasts from each of the models suggest the outbreaks may be nearing extinction in both Guangdong and Zhejiang; however, the sub-epidemic model predictions also include the potential for further sustained transmission, particularly in Zhejiang. Our 10-day forecasts across the three models predict an additional 65–81 cases (upper bounds: 169–507) in Guangdong and an additional 44–354 (upper bounds: 141–875) cases in Zhejiang by February 23, 2020. In the best-case scenario, current data suggest that transmission in both provinces is slowing down.

Though numbers alone may be insufficient to capture the nuances of population health, they provide a common language of appraisal and furnish clear evidence of disparities and inequalities. Over the past 30 years, facilitated by high speed computing and electronics, considerable investment has been made in the collection and analysis of urban health indicators, environmental indicators, and methods for their amalgamation. Much of this work has been characterized by a perceived need for a standard set of indicators. We used publication databases (e.g. Medline) and web searches to identify compilations of health indicators and health metrics. We found 14 long-term large-area compilations of health indicators and determinants and seven compilations of environmental health indicators, comprising hundreds of metrics. Despite the plethora of indicators, these compilations have striking similarities in the domains from which the indicators are drawn—an unappreciated concordance among the major collections. Research with these databases and other sources has produced a small number of composite indices, and a number of methods for the amalgamation of indicators and the demonstration of disparities. These indices have been primarily used for large-area (nation, region, state) comparisons, with both developing and developed countries, often for purposes of ranking. Small area indices have been less explored, in part perhaps because of the vagaries of data availability, and because idiosyncratic local conditions require flexible approaches as opposed to a fixed format. One result has been advances in the ability to compare large areas, but with a concomitant deficiency in tools for public health workers to assess the status of local health and health disparities. Large area assessments are important, but the need for small area action requires a greater focus on local information and analysis, emphasizing method over prespecified content.

Purpose of review Over the past several years, one segment of the complex field of HIV transmission dynamics – heterosexual networks – has dominated theoretical and empirical investigation. This review provides an overview of recent work on HIV risks and networks, with a focus on recent findings in heterosexual network dynamics. Recent findings Qualitative (ethnographic) assessments have demonstrated the heterogeneity and complexity of heterosexual connections, particularly in Africa, where tradition, official polygamy, and unofficial multiperson arrangements have lead to concurrency of sexual partnerships. A large, quantitative study on Likoma Island, Malawi, demonstrated the considerable, interlocking sexual connections that arise from a high-concurrency sexual setting, even with a low average number of partnerships (low degree) of long duration. Such settings, as suggested by ethnographic studies, may be common in Africa and, coupled with newer information about transmissibility during acute and early infection, may provide a plausible explanation for endemic transmission and possibly for rapid HIV propagation. Summary Recognition of high-concurrency, low-degree networks is an important development for understanding HIV transmission dynamics. Their relevance to heterosexual transmission, and possible extension to other epidemiologic settings, reinforces the heterogeneity and complexity of HIV transmission dynamics.

Diarrheal disease is a leading cause of death among young children worldwide. As rates of acute diarrhea (AD; 1–6 days duration) have decreased, persistent diarrhea (PD; > 14 days duration) accounts for a greater proportion of the diarrheal disease burden. We describe factors associated with the duration of moderate-to-severe diarrhea in Kenyan children < 5 years old enrolled in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study. We found 587 (58%) children experienced AD, 360 (35%) had prolonged acute diarrhea (ProAD; 7–13 days duration), and 73 (7%) had PD. We constructed a Cox proportional hazards model to identify factors associated with diarrheal duration. Risk factors independently associated with longer diarrheal duration included infection with Cryptosporidium (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.868, P = 0.035), using an unimproved drinking water source (HR: 0.87, P = 0.035), and being stunted at enrollment (HR: 0.026, P < 0.0001). Diarrheal illness of extended duration appears to be multifactorial; given its association with adverse health and development outcomes, effective strategies should be implemented to reduce the duration and severity of diarrheal illness. Effective treatments for Cryptosporidium should be identified, interventions to improve drinking water are imperative, and nutrition should be improved through exclusive breastfeeding in infants ≤ 6 months and appropriate continued feeding practices for ill children.

The gap between how health information is communicated and what people understand and can use to make informed health decisions is called health literacy. This gap was exacerbated by the rapidly changing and excessive volume of information, misinformation, and disinformation during the COVID-19 pandemic. People with lower health literacy may not have understood the importance of COVID-19 vaccination for themselves or for their communities. Our aim was to understand health literacy levels within Fulton County, Georgia, and their relationship to vaccine prevalence. Fulton county residents ages 18 and over (n = 425) completed an on-line Health Literacy Questionnaire. Individual, organizational, functional, interactive, and critical health literacy scales were created. Vaccination prevalence data were collected from the Georgia Vaccine Distribution Dashboard. All data were divided into one of three county areas. There were statistically significant variations in vaccine prevalence χ²(3) = 29.325, p < 0.001 among the three county areas. All levels of health literacy predicted overall county vaccination prevalence F (4,420) = 85.941, p < 0.001, There were significant differences in health literacy levels among two of the three county area pairs; the lowest resourced county area had the lowest vaccination prevalence and health literacy rates. This is the first example of relating direct health literacy measures across a major metropolitan US county with vaccine prevalence data.