This study investigates the potential reconstruction of summer monsoon season streamflow variations in the middle reaches of the Yellow River from tree rings in the Qinling Mountains. The regional chronology is significantly positively correlated with the July–October streamflow of the middle Yellow River from 1919 to 1949, and the derived reconstruction explains 36.4% of the actual streamflow variance during this period. High streamflows occurred during 1644–1757, 1795–1806, 1818–1833, 1882–1900, 1909–1920 and 1933–1963. Low streamflows occurred during 1570–1643, 1758–1794, 1807–1817, 1834–1868, 1921–1932 and 1964–2012. High and low streamflow intervals also correspond well to the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensity. Some negative correlations of our streamflow reconstruction with Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) also suggest the linkage of regional streamflow changes to the Asian summer monsoon circulation. Although climate change has some important effects on the variation in streamflow, anthropogenic activities are the primary factors mediating the flow cessation of the Yellow River, based on streamflow reconstruction.

Our understanding of Central Asian historical streamflow variability is still limited because of short instrumental hydrologcial records. Based on tree-ring cores collected from three sampling sites in Kaiken River basin near Tien Shan, a regional tree-ring width chronology were developed. The correlation analysis showed that the runoff of Kaiken River from previous August to current June was significantly correlated with the regional chronology, and the high correlation coefficient was 0.661 (P < 0.01). Based on the regional chronology, the August-June runoff of Kaiken River has been reconstructed over the past 422 year, and it accounted for 43.7% of actual runoff variance during the common period 1983–2013. The reconstruction model is reliable, and the trend of observed and reconstructed data is relatively consistent. The results of multi-taper spectral analysis for the runoff reconstruction indicated some remarkable cycles for the past 422 years; the 11.5-year cycles correspond to the solar cycle and is found widely in runoff reconstructions in Central Asia. This may imply a solar influence on the hydroclimate variations of Tien Shan. The runoff reconstruction of Kaiken River compares well with runoff reconstructions the Urumqi River and Manas River, and implies that there is a common driving factor for the runoff in central Tien Shan, China. The analysis of linkages between climate variation and the runoff reconstruction of Kaiken River shows that there is a relationship between extremes in runoff variation and abnormal atmospheric circulations. Our 422-year steamflow reconstruction provides long-term perspective on current and 20th century hydrological events in central Tien Shan, is useful for aids sustainable water management and addresses regional climate change challenges.