Climate change has significant impacts on species' distributions and diversity patterns. Understanding range shifts and changes in richness gradients under climate change is crucial for conservation. The Tibetan Plateau, home to wild yak, chiru, and kiang, contains a biome with many endemic ungulates. It is highly sensitive to climate change and a region that merits particular attention with regard to the impacts of global climate change on its biomes. Maximum entropy approaches were used to estimate current and future potential distributions, in response to climate change, for 22 ungulate species. We used three general circulation (MK3, HADCM3, MIROC3_2‐MED) and three emissions scenarios (B1, A1B, A2) to derive estimated future measurements of 14 environmental variables over three time periods (2020, 2050, 2080), and then modeled species distributions using these predicted environmental measurements for each time period under two dispersal hypotheses (full and zero, respectively). This resulted in a total of 6160 prediction models. We found that these ungulates, on average, may lose 30–50% of their distributional areas, depending on the dispersal scenarios. In addition, 55–68% of the ungulate species were predicted to become locally endangered under the different dispersal assumptions, 23–32% to become locally critically endangered, and 4–7 endemic species to become globally endangered. Furthermore, ungulate species ranges may experience average poleward shifts of ~300 km. We also predict west‐to‐east reductions in species richness: southeastern mountainous areas currently have the highest species richness, but are predicted to face the greatest diversity losses, whereas the northern areas are predicted to see increasing numbers of ungulate species in the 21st century. Our study indicates much more severe range reductions of ungulates on the Tibetan Plateau than those anticipated elsewhere in the world, and species richness patterns will change dramatically with climate change. For conservation, we suggest (1) securing existing protected areas, and (2) establishing new nature reserves to counterbalance climate change impacts.

The karst area of southwest China (KASC) is the largest piece of karst landscape on the earth and a global biodiversity hot-spot with high concentrations of endemic species. Although a number of nature reserves (NRs) have been established across the region, the representativeness of biodiversity of the NR system is still unknown. Based on comprehensive literature and field surveys and intensive consultations with zoologists and wildlife managers, we compiled distributions of 1,204 terrestrial vertebrate species and 271 NRs in KASC. We found Jinxiu, Mengla, Hekou and Jinghong have the richest amphibian species; Jinxiu has the highest species richness of reptiles; Jinghong, Menghai and Mengla have the largest numbers of avian species; whereas, Mengla, Longzhou and Ningming have the greatest mammalian diversity in the region. Gap analysis among NR system, species richness pattern and five biogeographic indicators found insufficient representation of the NR system on territorial vertebrate diversity. The conservation effectiveness in Guizhou Province was much lower than that in Guangxi and Yunnan Provinces. Under-representation and over-representation simultaneously occurred in many of the ecoregions, elevation classes, vegetation types, landcover categories and human disturbance intensity gradients. For conservation of terrestrial vertebrates in KASC, several suggestions were presented in this study.