The biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA)—so‐called “treatment response”—strongly predicts long‐term outcome in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). Several long‐term prognostic models based solely on the treatment response have been developed that are widely used to risk stratify PBC patients and guide their management. However, they do not take other prognostic variables into account, such as the stage of the liver disease. We sought to improve existing long‐term prognostic models of PBC using data from the UK‐PBC Research Cohort. We performed Cox's proportional hazards regression analysis of diverse explanatory variables in a derivation cohort of 1,916 UDCA‐treated participants. We used nonautomatic backward selection to derive the best‐fitting Cox model, from which we derived a multivariable fractional polynomial model. We combined linear predictors and baseline survivor functions in equations to score the risk of a liver transplant or liver‐related death occurring within 5, 10, or 15 years. We validated these risk scores in an independent cohort of 1,249 UDCA‐treated participants. The best‐fitting model consisted of the baseline albumin and platelet count, as well as the bilirubin, transaminases, and alkaline phosphatase, after 12 months of UDCA. In the validation cohort, the 5‐, 10‐, and 15‐year risk scores were highly accurate (areas under the curve: >0.90). Conclusions: The prognosis of PBC patients can be accurately evaluated using the UK‐PBC risk scores. They may be used to identify high‐risk patients for closer monitoring and second‐line therapies, as well as low‐risk patients who could potentially be followed up in primary care. (Hepatology 2016;63:930–950)

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC), primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) and autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) represent the three major autoimmune liver diseases (AILD). PBC, PSC, and AIH are all complex disorders in that they result from the effects of multiple genes in combination with as yet unidentified environmental factors. Recent genome-wide association studies have identified numerous risk loci for PBC and PSC that host genes involved in innate or acquired immune responses. These loci may provide a clue as to the immune-based pathogenesis of AILD. Moreover, many significant risk loci for PBC and PSC are also risk loci for other autoimmune disorders, such type I diabetes, multiple sclerosis and rheumatoid arthritis, suggesting a shared genetic basis and possibly similar molecular pathways for diverse autoimmune conditions. There is no curative treatment for all three disorders, and a significant number of patients eventually progress to end-stage liver disease requiring liver transplantation (LT). LT in this context has a favourable overall outcome with current patient and graft survival exceeding 80% at 5years. Indications are as for other chronic liver disease although recent data suggest that while lethargy improves after transplantation, the effect is modest and variable so lethargy alone is not an indication. In contrast, pruritus rapidly responds. Cholangiocarcinoma, except under rigorous selection criteria, excludes LT because of the high risk of recurrence. All three conditions may recur after transplantation and are associated with a greater risk of both acute cellular and chronic ductopenic rejection. It is possible that a crosstalk between alloimmune and autoimmune response perpetuate each other. An immunological response toward self- or allo-antigens is well recognised after LT in patients transplanted for non-autoimmune indications and sometimes termed "de novo autoimmune hepatitis". Whether this is part of the spectrum of rejection or an autoimmune process is not clear. In this manuscript, we review novel findings about disease processes and mechanisms that lead to autoimmunity in the liver and their possible involvement in the immune response vs. the graft after LT.

Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) has been regarded as female-predominant without evidence of gender difference in survival. We aimed to compare the overall survival, incidence and prevalence of PBC in two well defined population-based studies over a recent decade, considering also sex ratios and mortality. We have taken advantage of population-wide records, during 2000–2009, in Lombardia, Northern Italy and Denmark. We focused on the incident cases of PBC, including gender and outcome, among 9.7 million inhabitants of Lombardia and 5.5 million of Denmark. In Lombardia there were 2,970 PBC cases with a female:male ratio of 2.3:1. The age/sex-adjusted annual incidence of PBC was 16.7 per million. Point prevalence was 160 per million on January 1^st 2009. In Denmark there were 722 cases of incident PBC, female:male ratio was 4.2:1 and the annual incidence was 11.4 per million, a point prevalence of 115 per million in 2009. Cox regression multivariate analysis identified male sex as an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in both Italian (HR 2.36) and Danish population (HR 3.04). Our data indicate for PBC a sex ratio significantly lower than previously cited, a reversal of the usual latitudinal difference in prevalence and a surprisingly higher overall mortality for male patients.

Treatment guidelines recommend a stepwise approach to primary biliary cholangitis: all patients begin treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) monotherapy and those with an inadequate biochemical response after 12 months are subsequently considered for second-line therapies. However, as a result, patients at the highest risk can wait the longest for effective treatment. We determined whether UDCA response can be accurately predicted using pretreatment clinical parameters. We did logistic regression analysis of pretreatment variables in a discovery cohort of patients in the UK with primary biliary cholangitis to derive the best-fitting model of UDCA response, defined as alkaline phosphatase less than 1·67 times the upper limit of normal (ULN), measured after 12 months of treatment with UDCA. We validated the model in an external cohort of patients with primary biliary cholangitis and treated with UDCA in Italy. Additionally, we assessed correlations between model predictions and key histological features, such as biliary injury and fibrosis, on liver biopsy samples. 2703 participants diagnosed with primary biliary cholangitis between Jan 1, 1998, and May 31, 2015, were included in the UK-PBC cohort for derivation of the model. The following pretreatment parameters were associated with lower probability of UDCA response: higher alkaline phosphatase concentration (p<0·0001), higher total bilirubin concentration (p=0·0003), lower aminotransferase concentration (p=0·0012), younger age (p<0·0001), longer interval from diagnosis to the start of UDCA treatment (treatment time lag, p<0·0001), and worsening of alkaline phosphatase concentration from diagnosis (p<0·0001). Based on these variables, we derived a predictive score of UDCA response. In the external validation cohort, 460 patients diagnosed with primary biliary cholangitis were treated with UDCA, with follow-up data until May 31, 2016. In this validation cohort, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the score was 0·83 (95% CI 0·79-0·87). In 20 liver biopsy samples from patients with primary biliary cholangitis, the UDCA response score was associated with ductular reaction (r=-0·556, p=0·0130) and intermediate hepatocytes (probability of response was 0·90 if intermediate hepatocytes were absent vs 0·51 if present). We have derived and externally validated a model based on pretreatment variables that accurately predicts UDCA response. Association with histological features provides face validity. This model provides a basis to explore alternative approaches to treatment stratification in patients with primary biliary cholangitis. UK Medical Research Council and University of Milan-Bicocca.

Background Late acute rejection (LAR) after liver transplantation is often associated with poor clinical outcomes. We reviewed our experience of managing LAR in the current era to determine its natural history. Methods A database of 970 consecutive adult liver transplants was reviewed retrospectively. LAR was defined as histologically proven acute cellular rejection occurring more than 90 days after transplantation. Results The incidence of LAR was 11%, with a mean time of 565 days (median, 311 days; range, 90–2922 days) after transplantation. The highest rates for LAR were in seronegative hepatitis (17%), primary biliary cirrhosis (16%), and primary sclerosing cholangitis (13%) with an odds ratio of 2.3, 2.1, and 1.8, respectively. Logistic regression showed that younger recipients, primary biliary cirrhosis, and previous graft loss were independent predictors of LAR (P<0.001). Mean trough whole blood tacrolimus levels were at their lowest levels 1 week before the diagnosis of rejection (5.5 ng/mL; SD, 2.6) compared with levels of 7.7 ng/mL 4 weeks before rejection, showing a clear temporal relation. Graft survival was worse in those with LAR (P<0.01), whereas the best graft survival was among early acute rejection cases (85% 10-year survival; P<0.01). Poor response to treatment correlated with the development of ductopenic rejection (r=0.3; P<0.01). Approximately half with early ductopenic rejection eventually died (n=15). Conclusion LAR continues to provide a risk to patient and graft survival: understanding risk factors may allow an improvement in monitoring and early intervention and so prevent early graft loss.