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Dr. Mu​hammad Arshad
Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), 15374, Muencheberg, Germany

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0 Adaptation planning
0 Sustainable land management
0 Environmental Management and Policy
0 Crop and livelihood diversification
0 Droughts and flood resistance

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Climate variability and crop productivity

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Articles
Published: 11 June 2020 in Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal
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Extensive use of pesticides in agricultural production results in increased health risks and health costs, productivity loss, and degradation of the environment. Farmers’ risk perceptions of pesticide residues can help mitigate these issues. This paper applies an ordered probit model to analyze farmers’ perceptions of pesticide residues using a cross-sectional dataset of 209 vegetable cultivators in Punjab, Pakistan. Important determinants of farmers’ perceptions include their educational level, family labor, ratio of self-consumed foodstuffs, health effects, integrated pest management (IPM) training, knowledge, and awareness. Among these determinants, farmers’ awareness and IPM training programs are the principle indicators of risk perception. These results have significant implications for policymakers because farmers’ perceptions including overuse of pesticides tend to worsen if supported by the internalization of social norms, which, in turn, is restricted by farmers’ awareness and knowledge. The study findings suggest that special attention should be given to farmers who are limited to receiving information directly from agricultural extension officers. Moreover, intensive IPM training programs should be designed with the aim of conveying precautionary measures for human health and a sustainable agro-ecosystem.

ACS Style

Yasir Mehmood; Muhammad Arshad; Harald Kaechele; Nasir Mahmood; Rong Kong. Pesticide residues, health risks, and vegetable farmers’ risk perceptions in Punjab, Pakistan. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal 2020, 27, 846 -864.

AMA Style

Yasir Mehmood, Muhammad Arshad, Harald Kaechele, Nasir Mahmood, Rong Kong. Pesticide residues, health risks, and vegetable farmers’ risk perceptions in Punjab, Pakistan. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal. 2020; 27 (3):846-864.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Yasir Mehmood; Muhammad Arshad; Harald Kaechele; Nasir Mahmood; Rong Kong. 2020. "Pesticide residues, health risks, and vegetable farmers’ risk perceptions in Punjab, Pakistan." Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal 27, no. 3: 846-864.

Journal article
Published: 22 February 2020 in Sustainability
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Climate change is a severe threat to the agricultural sector in general and to rainfed farming in particular. The aim of this study was to investigate the factors that can potentially affect the adaptation process against climate change. This study focused on wheat farmers and farming systems in the rainfed agroecological zone of Pakistan. Farmers’ data related to climate change fatalism, the availability of climate-specific extension services, socioeconomic and institutional variables, and farm characteristics were collected. A logit model to assess farmers’ decisions to adopt an adaptation measure and a multinomial logit model to assess their choice of various adaptation measures were used. The results showed that fatalistic farmers were unlikely to implement climate change adaptation measures. The variables related to the climate-specific extension services, including farmers’ participation in training on climate-resilient crop farming and the availability of mobile communication-based advisory services, had highly significant and positive impacts on farmers’ decisions and their choice of adaptation measures. Input market access and tractor ownership also had positive and significant impacts on farmers’ decisions to adapt and their choice of adaptation measures. This study highlights the need to improve rainfed-wheat farmers’ education levels to change their fatalistic attitudes towards climate change. Furthermore, government action is needed to provide climate-specific extension services to ensure sustainable production levels that will ultimately lead to food and livelihood security under a changing climate.

ACS Style

Nasir Mahmood; Muhammad Arshad; Harald Kaechele; Muhammad Faisal Shahzad; Ayat Ullah; Klaus Mueller. Fatalism, Climate Resiliency Training and Farmers’ Adaptation Responses: Implications for Sustainable Rainfed-Wheat Production in Pakistan. Sustainability 2020, 12, 1650 .

AMA Style

Nasir Mahmood, Muhammad Arshad, Harald Kaechele, Muhammad Faisal Shahzad, Ayat Ullah, Klaus Mueller. Fatalism, Climate Resiliency Training and Farmers’ Adaptation Responses: Implications for Sustainable Rainfed-Wheat Production in Pakistan. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (4):1650.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Nasir Mahmood; Muhammad Arshad; Harald Kaechele; Muhammad Faisal Shahzad; Ayat Ullah; Klaus Mueller. 2020. "Fatalism, Climate Resiliency Training and Farmers’ Adaptation Responses: Implications for Sustainable Rainfed-Wheat Production in Pakistan." Sustainability 12, no. 4: 1650.

Journal article
Published: 09 July 2019 in Ecological Economics
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Climate change may influence crop income negatively or positively. To address this, present study is an attempt to quantify the impacts of climate change on net income from crop farming in Bangladesh using Ricardian method. For estimating the relationship between net crop income and climatic parameters, farm household and climate data were collected from the selected agro-ecological zones (AEZs) in Bangladesh. The results revealed that net crop income is sensitive to climate, particularly to seasonal temperature. Temperature rise was found to be positively influencing net crop income in AEZs having adequate irrigation facilities. Marginal impact estimates suggest that increase in temperature and rainfall will lead to increase in net income from crop farming in Bangladesh. However, the impacts will vary significantly across cropping seasons and space (studied AEZs). Using selected AOGCM scenarios, the study predicts that net crop incomes are expected to increase in the future. The empirical findings underscore the need for policy makers to take agro-ecological zones specific effects of climate change into consideration when formulating and implementing the adaptation strategies in Bangladesh.

ACS Style

Mohammad Shakhawat Hossain; Muhammad Arshad; Lu Qian; Minjuan Zhao; Yasir Mehmood; Harald Kächele. Economic impact of climate change on crop farming in Bangladesh: An application of Ricardian method. Ecological Economics 2019, 164, 106354 .

AMA Style

Mohammad Shakhawat Hossain, Muhammad Arshad, Lu Qian, Minjuan Zhao, Yasir Mehmood, Harald Kächele. Economic impact of climate change on crop farming in Bangladesh: An application of Ricardian method. Ecological Economics. 2019; 164 ():106354.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Mohammad Shakhawat Hossain; Muhammad Arshad; Lu Qian; Minjuan Zhao; Yasir Mehmood; Harald Kächele. 2019. "Economic impact of climate change on crop farming in Bangladesh: An application of Ricardian method." Ecological Economics 164, no. : 106354.

Journal article
Published: 19 June 2019 in Science of The Total Environment
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More than three-quarters of the world's total cultivated land is under rainfed farming, producing almost 70% of total food. Most food production comes from developing and least favored nations. Pakistan, a developing country with an agro-based economy, is facing severe threats from climate change. Rainfed agriculture, especially wheat farming, is highly susceptible due to its heavy dependency on precipitation, one of the most important climatic parameters. Wheat is the main food crop, as well as a major source of calorific intake, for millions of people in Pakistan. This study aims to quantify the impacts of climate variability on mean yield levels and yield variability of wheat crop in the rainfed zone of Pakistan. Multistage random sampling technique is used for primary data collection from 400 rainfed wheat farmers during the 2016–17 crop season. The study uses primary data on crop input-output, management, socioeconomic, institutional, and historical climatic data (1980–2017). The data are analyzed employing the Just and Pope (J-P) stochastic production function approach with linear and non-linear functional forms. The results reveal that temperature rise negatively affects observed wheat mean yields, while cumulative precipitation positively affected it. Further, input market access, seed rate, and cumulative precipitation also cause variability in yield levels, leading to yield instability. Further, farm elevation influences wheat mean yield positively while input market access influences it negatively. The findings of the study have important implications for climate resilient wheat farming. Timely and tailor-made adaptations need to be undertaken in the rainfed wheat farming systems of Pakistan. Creating awareness among farmers about the optimal use of agronomic inputs under changing climatic conditions could be an effective adaptation strategy that improves yields and copes with yield instability.

ACS Style

Nasir Mahmood; Muhammad Arshad; Harald Kächele; Hua Ma; Ayat Ullah; Klaus Müller. Wheat yield response to input and socioeconomic factors under changing climate: Evidence from rainfed environments of Pakistan. Science of The Total Environment 2019, 688, 1275 -1285.

AMA Style

Nasir Mahmood, Muhammad Arshad, Harald Kächele, Hua Ma, Ayat Ullah, Klaus Müller. Wheat yield response to input and socioeconomic factors under changing climate: Evidence from rainfed environments of Pakistan. Science of The Total Environment. 2019; 688 ():1275-1285.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Nasir Mahmood; Muhammad Arshad; Harald Kächele; Hua Ma; Ayat Ullah; Klaus Müller. 2019. "Wheat yield response to input and socioeconomic factors under changing climate: Evidence from rainfed environments of Pakistan." Science of The Total Environment 688, no. : 1275-1285.

Journal article
Published: 20 May 2019 in International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management
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Changes in climate may have both beneficial and harmful effects on crop yields. However, the effects will be more in countries whose economy depends on agriculture. This study aims to measure the economic impacts of climate change on crop farming in Bangladesh. A Ricardian model was used to estimate the relationship between net crop income and climate variables. Historical climate data and farm household level data from all climatic zones of Bangladesh were collected for this purpose. A regression model was then developed of net crop income per hectare against long-term climate, household and farm variables. Marginal impacts of climate change and potential future impacts of projected climate scenarios on net crop incomes were also estimated. The results revealed that net crop income in Bangladesh is sensitive to climate, particularly to seasonal temperature. A positive effect of temperature rise on net crop income was observed for the farms located in the areas having sufficient irrigation facilities. Estimated marginal impact suggests that 1 mm/month increase in rainfall and 10°C increase in temperature will lead to about US$4-15 increase in net crop income per hectare in Bangladesh. However, there will be significant seasonal and spatial variations in the impacts. The assessment of future impacts under climate change scenarios projected by Global Circulation Models indicated an increase in net crop income from US$25-84 per hectare in the country. The findings of this study indicate the need for development practitioners and policy planners to consider both the beneficial and harmful effects of climate change across different climatic zones while designing and implementing the adaptation policies in the country. Literature survey of the Web of Science, Science Direct and Google Scholar indicates that this study is the first attempt to measure the economic impacts of climate change on overall crop farming sector in Bangladesh using an econometric model.

ACS Style

Mohammad Shakhawat Hossain; Lu Qian; Muhammad Arshad; Shamsuddin Shahid; Shah Fahad; Javed Akhter. Climate change and crop farming in Bangladesh: an analysis of economic impacts. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 2019, 11, 424 -440.

AMA Style

Mohammad Shakhawat Hossain, Lu Qian, Muhammad Arshad, Shamsuddin Shahid, Shah Fahad, Javed Akhter. Climate change and crop farming in Bangladesh: an analysis of economic impacts. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management. 2019; 11 (3):424-440.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Mohammad Shakhawat Hossain; Lu Qian; Muhammad Arshad; Shamsuddin Shahid; Shah Fahad; Javed Akhter. 2019. "Climate change and crop farming in Bangladesh: an analysis of economic impacts." International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 11, no. 3: 424-440.

Research article
Published: 20 September 2018 in Environmental Science and Pollution Research
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Various measures are adopted by flood-prone households for the mitigation of flood risk along with various post-flood coping strategies. We analyze the role of various ex ante household-level flood mitigation strategies in influencing riverine flood damages. The study also presents an account on the linkages of various ex post coping strategies and flood damages experienced in a flood event in Pakistan. For achieving a uniform flood damage indicator, polychoric principle component analysis (PCA) is employed to construct a composite flood damage index considering various aspects of economic, social, and psychological impacts of a flood event. The adjusted flood damage index is regressed on various socioeconomic features and ex ante mitigation actions to know their effect on the former. Results indicate that distance from river, elevating house, and pre-shifting investigating about flooding problem help in significantly reducing the overall flood damages. Likewise, group-based actions like voting political candidates based on their flood-control promises, organizing grass-root group meetings, and raising voices through memos/petitions are found to significantly reduce flood-related damages while leaving house premises before flooding is found to increase the overall flood damage. Post-flood coping strategies comprise of social and financial support along with some livelihood diversification and disinvestment strategies such as selling livestock, jewelry, and withdrawing children from schools. Borrowing money, reducing food consumption, and agricultural diversification are more prevalent strategies among low and medium damage groups while consuming savings is more conspicuous among high damage group. The study concludes with the emphasis on policy interventions for effective early warning, location-specific flood intensity information, and proper streamlining of planning process and compensation system.

ACS Style

Azhar Abbas; T. S. Amjath-Babu; Harald Kächele; Muhammad Usman; M. Amjed Iqbal; Muhammad Arshad; M. Adnan Shahid; Klaus Müller. Sustainable survival under climatic extremes: linking flood risk mitigation and coping with flood damages in rural Pakistan. Environmental Science and Pollution Research 2018, 25, 32491 -32505.

AMA Style

Azhar Abbas, T. S. Amjath-Babu, Harald Kächele, Muhammad Usman, M. Amjed Iqbal, Muhammad Arshad, M. Adnan Shahid, Klaus Müller. Sustainable survival under climatic extremes: linking flood risk mitigation and coping with flood damages in rural Pakistan. Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 2018; 25 (32):32491-32505.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Azhar Abbas; T. S. Amjath-Babu; Harald Kächele; Muhammad Usman; M. Amjed Iqbal; Muhammad Arshad; M. Adnan Shahid; Klaus Müller. 2018. "Sustainable survival under climatic extremes: linking flood risk mitigation and coping with flood damages in rural Pakistan." Environmental Science and Pollution Research 25, no. 32: 32491-32505.

Journal article
Published: 01 June 2018 in Ecological Indicators
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South Asia is the world’s most poverty-dense region, where climate change and climate variability are expected to result in increased heat stress and erratic precipitation patterns that affect agricultural productivity. Considerable evidence has been generated on the effects of these stresses on crop yield, though previous research has not yet examined their influence on the economic efficiency of cereal producers. Surveying 240 farmers across eight of Pakistan’s twelve agro-ecological zones, we examined the impact of temperature and precipitation anomalies – as indicators of climatic variability – and the number of days when temperature exceeds crop specific heat stress thresholds on the economic efficiency of rice and wheat production. To this end, we employed first-stage stochastic production frontier (SPF) models and second-stage ordinary least square (OLS) and quantile regression models. Both OLS and quantile regressions indicated that terminal heat >34 °C has a significant negative impact on wheat production economic efficiency. Small positive deviation (0.54 °C ± 0.16 SD) of the wheat season’s mean temperature from the medium-term historical mean also significantly and negatively affected economic efficiency across all regression models. Heat stress >35.5 °C during rice flowering in the monsoon also had a significant and negative impact. A slight positive deviation in temperature averaging 0.38 °C (±0.11 SD) above the medium-term mean also had significant negative effects across all regressions. Cumulative precipitation conversely had significant yet contrary effects, by offsetting farmers’ investment in supplementary irrigation and increasing economic efficiency. Our results highlight the fact that indicators of climatic variability and heat stress negatively affect the economic efficiency of both rice and wheat producing farmers. Farmers’ education and access to financial and extension services were however both positively associated with economic efficiency. Our findings point to the importance of developing interlinked agronomic, economic and socio-ecological policy strategies to adapt and increase the resilience of Pakistan’s cereal systems to climatic variability.

ACS Style

Muhammad Arshad; T.S. Amjath-Babu; Sreejith Aravindakshan; Timothy J. Krupnik; Verena Toussaint; Harald Kächele; Klaus Müller. Climatic variability and thermal stress in Pakistan’s rice and wheat systems: A stochastic frontier and quantile regression analysis of economic efficiency. Ecological Indicators 2018, 89, 496 -506.

AMA Style

Muhammad Arshad, T.S. Amjath-Babu, Sreejith Aravindakshan, Timothy J. Krupnik, Verena Toussaint, Harald Kächele, Klaus Müller. Climatic variability and thermal stress in Pakistan’s rice and wheat systems: A stochastic frontier and quantile regression analysis of economic efficiency. Ecological Indicators. 2018; 89 ():496-506.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Muhammad Arshad; T.S. Amjath-Babu; Sreejith Aravindakshan; Timothy J. Krupnik; Verena Toussaint; Harald Kächele; Klaus Müller. 2018. "Climatic variability and thermal stress in Pakistan’s rice and wheat systems: A stochastic frontier and quantile regression analysis of economic efficiency." Ecological Indicators 89, no. : 496-506.

Journal article
Published: 05 February 2018 in British Food Journal
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the effect of partial quantity rationing of credit on the technical efficiency of dairy farmers in the Punjab province of Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach Prior to the field survey, the authors constructed a theoretical model for clear identification of partial quantity rationed dairy farmers. Data from 154 dairy farmers were collected that represented three districts of the province. The collected data were analyzed in two stages: first, the efficiency level of dairy farmers was estimated using a stochastic frontier approach; second, the authors employed an inefficiency-effects model to estimate the effect of partial quantity rationing of credit on technical efficiency. Findings The results revealed that education level of the household head, cross-breed and imported cattle, and electric chaff cutter, all had significant positive impacts on technical efficiency, followed by diversified sources of income. Conversely, the analysis of our key variables, interest rate on principal amount and partial quantity rationing of credit had significant negative effects on the technical efficiency of dairy farmers in selected districts of the Punjab province in Pakistan. Originality/value The study will be an important contribution to the existing credit constraints and technical efficiency literature and will particularly help the rural financial institutions in terms of approving the loan amount according to the actual requirements of the borrowers. The study’s findings and subsequent recommendations will be useful for policy makers in achieving the actual production level, bringing down the poverty levels and ensuring food security in the country.

ACS Style

Yasir Mehmood; Kong Rong; Muhammad Khalid Bashir; Muhammad Arshad. Does partial quantity rationing of credit affect the technical efficiency of dairy farmers in Punjab, Pakistan? British Food Journal 2018, 120, 441 -451.

AMA Style

Yasir Mehmood, Kong Rong, Muhammad Khalid Bashir, Muhammad Arshad. Does partial quantity rationing of credit affect the technical efficiency of dairy farmers in Punjab, Pakistan? British Food Journal. 2018; 120 (2):441-451.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Yasir Mehmood; Kong Rong; Muhammad Khalid Bashir; Muhammad Arshad. 2018. "Does partial quantity rationing of credit affect the technical efficiency of dairy farmers in Punjab, Pakistan?" British Food Journal 120, no. 2: 441-451.

Original articles
Published: 02 November 2016 in International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology
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Many studies have examined the impact of climatic variability on agricultural productivity, although an understanding of these effects on farmland values and their relationship to farmers’ decisions to adapt and modify their land-use practices remains nascent in developing nations. We estimated the impacts of the deviation in our study year's (2012) temperature and precipitation patterns from medium-term (1980–2011) climatic patterns on farmland values in Pakistan. This was accomplished by employing a modified form of a Ricardian regression model. We also examined farmers’ perceptions of climate change during this period, as well as their perceptions of climate change impacts on farm productivity, in addition to past and anticipated farm adaptation strategies. Our results indicate that positive temperature deviation from the medium-term mean – indicative of climatic change – affects farmland values in Pakistan. Deviation in annual cumulative precipitation conversely appears to have no significant impact. Estimates of the marginal impact of temperature deviation suggested a slight but negative linear relationship with farmland values. The location of farms in areas where farmers can avail financial or extension services conversely had a positive impact on farmland values, as did the availability of irrigation facilities. Our analysis of farmers’ perceptions of climate change and their consequent adaptation behavior indicated a relatively high degree of awareness of climatic variability that influenced a number of proactive and future anticipated farm adaptation strategies. Examples included increased use of irrigation and farm enterprise diversification, as well as land-use change, including shifting from agriculture into alternative land uses. National policy in Pakistan underscores the importance of maintaining a productive rural agricultural sector. Our findings consequently highlight the importance of appropriate adaptation strategies to maintain both farm productivity and farmland values in much of Pakistan. The implications of increased extension and financial services to enhance farmers’ potential for climate change adaptation are discussed.

ACS Style

Muhammad Arshad; Harald Kächele; Timothy J. Krupnik; T. S. Amjath-Babu; Sreejith Aravindakshan; Azhar Abbas; Yasir Mehmood; Klaus Müller. Climate variability, farmland value, and farmers’ perceptions of climate change: implications for adaptation in rural Pakistan. International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology 2016, 24, 532 -544.

AMA Style

Muhammad Arshad, Harald Kächele, Timothy J. Krupnik, T. S. Amjath-Babu, Sreejith Aravindakshan, Azhar Abbas, Yasir Mehmood, Klaus Müller. Climate variability, farmland value, and farmers’ perceptions of climate change: implications for adaptation in rural Pakistan. International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology. 2016; 24 (6):532-544.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Muhammad Arshad; Harald Kächele; Timothy J. Krupnik; T. S. Amjath-Babu; Sreejith Aravindakshan; Azhar Abbas; Yasir Mehmood; Klaus Müller. 2016. "Climate variability, farmland value, and farmers’ perceptions of climate change: implications for adaptation in rural Pakistan." International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology 24, no. 6: 532-544.

Journal article
Published: 03 August 2016 in Paddy and Water Environment
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Rice and wheat are the principal calorie sources for over a billion people in South Asia, although each crop is particularly sensitive to the climatic and agronomic management conditions under which they are grown. Season-long heat stress can reduce photosynthesis and accelerate senescence; if extreme heat stress is experienced during flowering, both rice and wheat may also experience decreased pollen viability and stigma deposition, leading to increased grain sterility. Where farmers are unable to implement within-season management adaptations, significant deviations from expected climatic conditions would affect crop growth, yield, and therefore have important implications for food security. The influence of climatic conditions on crop growth have been widely studied in growth chamber, greenhouse, and research station trials, although empirical evidence of the link between climatic variability and yield risk in farmers’ fields is comparatively scarce. Using data from 240 farm households, this paper responds to this gap and isolates the effects of agronomic management from climatic variability on rice and wheat yield risks in eight of Pakistan’s twelve agroecological zones. Using Just and Pope production functions, we tested for the effects of crop management practices and climatic conditions on yield and yield variability for each crop. Our results highlight important risks to farmers’ ability to obtain reliable yield levels for both crops. Despite variability in input use and crop management, we found evidence for the negative effect of both season-long and terminal heat stress, measured as the cumulative number of days during which crop growth occurred above critical thresholds, though wheat was considerably more sensitive than rice. Comparing variation in observed climatic parameters in the year of study to medium-term patterns, rice, and wheat yields were both negatively affected, indicative of production risk and of farmers’ limited capacity for within-season adaptation. Our findings suggest the importance of reviewing existing climate change adaptation policies that aim to increase cereal farmers’ resilience in Pakistan, and more broadly in South Asia. Potential agronomic and extension strategies are proposed for further investigation.

ACS Style

Muhammad Arshad; T. S. Amjath-Babu; Timothy J. Krupnik; Sreejith Aravindakshan; Azhar Abbas; Harald Kächele; Klaus Mueller. Climate variability and yield risk in South Asia’s rice–wheat systems: emerging evidence from Pakistan. Paddy and Water Environment 2016, 15, 249 -261.

AMA Style

Muhammad Arshad, T. S. Amjath-Babu, Timothy J. Krupnik, Sreejith Aravindakshan, Azhar Abbas, Harald Kächele, Klaus Mueller. Climate variability and yield risk in South Asia’s rice–wheat systems: emerging evidence from Pakistan. Paddy and Water Environment. 2016; 15 (2):249-261.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Muhammad Arshad; T. S. Amjath-Babu; Timothy J. Krupnik; Sreejith Aravindakshan; Azhar Abbas; Harald Kächele; Klaus Mueller. 2016. "Climate variability and yield risk in South Asia’s rice–wheat systems: emerging evidence from Pakistan." Paddy and Water Environment 15, no. 2: 249-261.

Journal article
Published: 01 August 2016 in Ecological Indicators
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Several studies estimate the immediate impact of climate change on agricultural societies in terms of changes in crop yields or farm income, though few studies concentrate on the immediate secondary consequences of climate change. This synthetic analysis uses a set of indicators to assess the repercussions of predicted income reductions resulting from climate change on food consumption, nutrition, health expenditure, education, and recreation in Zimbabwe, Cameroon, South Africa and Ethiopia. We also assess the potential decline in human development potential among smallholder dryland farmers in these sub-Saharan African countries. In contrast to previous efforts, the current study directly integrates the uncertainties in estimations of income changes and secondary consequences through a weighting scheme. The results reveal moderate to high levels of secondary impacts which could lead to increased vulnerability to diseases, susceptibility to nutritional disorders, deprivation of educational opportunities, and ultimately to a reduction in human and societal development potential among the considered nations. The article concludes by proposing a portfolio of policy options for ameliorating the secondary impacts of climate change in these sub-Saharan African countries.

ACS Style

T.S. Amjath-Babu; Timothy J. Krupnik; Sreejith Aravindakshan; Muhammad Arshad; Harald Kaechele. Climate change and indicators of probable shifts in the consumption portfolios of dryland farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for policy. Ecological Indicators 2016, 67, 830 -838.

AMA Style

T.S. Amjath-Babu, Timothy J. Krupnik, Sreejith Aravindakshan, Muhammad Arshad, Harald Kaechele. Climate change and indicators of probable shifts in the consumption portfolios of dryland farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for policy. Ecological Indicators. 2016; 67 ():830-838.

Chicago/Turabian Style

T.S. Amjath-Babu; Timothy J. Krupnik; Sreejith Aravindakshan; Muhammad Arshad; Harald Kaechele. 2016. "Climate change and indicators of probable shifts in the consumption portfolios of dryland farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for policy." Ecological Indicators 67, no. : 830-838.

Research articles
Published: 26 May 2015 in Climate and Development
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Pakistan has become a poster child for extreme weather events such as floods and droughts in recent years. The frequency and severity of these events are expected to increase in the future due to predicted climatic changes. This scenario suggests the likelihood of increased crop damage in flood- or drought-prone areas, and hence the need for risk-reducing mechanisms. This paper attempts to determine whether crop insurance is an acceptable tool against flood and drought events in rural Pakistan. It also analyses the factors influencing a farmer's willingness to pay insurance premiums. In a rural farm-household survey, farmers were asked about their willingness to pay for a hypothetical crop insurance programme employing a “double-bounded dichotomous contingent valuation method”. The results revealed that around 30% of the respondents accepted the idea of crop insurance as a tool to reduce and mitigate the financial risks associated with floods and droughts. Our findings suggest that the frequency and severity of the previous weather-related extremes, socio-economic settings, farm typology and the farming communities’ ability to pay need to be taken into consideration when introducing crop insurance programmes against flood or drought in Pakistan. Furthermore, disseminating awareness among farming communities about the future climatic changes and the associated risks of the occurrence of extreme weather events is imperative. The government's willingness to share/subsidize insurance premiums may increase the demand for crop insurance among smallholders in Pakistan and protect them from the negative repercussions of these extreme weather events in order to sustain their livelihoods.

ACS Style

Muhammad Arshad; T.S Amjath-Babu; Harald Kächele; Klaus Mueller. What drives the willingness to pay for crop insurance against extreme weather events (flood and drought) in Pakistan? A hypothetical market approach. Climate and Development 2015, 8, 234 -244.

AMA Style

Muhammad Arshad, T.S Amjath-Babu, Harald Kächele, Klaus Mueller. What drives the willingness to pay for crop insurance against extreme weather events (flood and drought) in Pakistan? A hypothetical market approach. Climate and Development. 2015; 8 (3):234-244.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Muhammad Arshad; T.S Amjath-Babu; Harald Kächele; Klaus Mueller. 2015. "What drives the willingness to pay for crop insurance against extreme weather events (flood and drought) in Pakistan? A hypothetical market approach." Climate and Development 8, no. 3: 234-244.