Low-risk limits recommended for alcohol consumption vary substantially across different national guidelines. To define thresholds associated with lowest risk for all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease, we studied individual-participant data from 599 912 current drinkers without previous cardiovascular disease. We did a combined analysis of individual-participant data from three large-scale data sources in 19 high-income countries (the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD, and the UK Biobank). We characterised dose-response associations and calculated hazard ratios (HRs) per 100 g per week of alcohol (12·5 units per week) across 83 prospective studies, adjusting at least for study or centre, age, sex, smoking, and diabetes. To be eligible for the analysis, participants had to have information recorded about their alcohol consumption amount and status (ie, non-drinker vs current drinker), plus age, sex, history of diabetes and smoking status, at least 1 year of follow-up after baseline, and no baseline history of cardiovascular disease. The main analyses focused on current drinkers, whose baseline alcohol consumption was categorised into eight predefined groups according to the amount in grams consumed per week. We assessed alcohol consumption in relation to all-cause mortality, total cardiovascular disease, and several cardiovascular disease subtypes. We corrected HRs for estimated long-term variability in alcohol consumption using 152 640 serial alcohol assessments obtained some years apart (median interval 5·6 years [5th-95th percentile 1·04-13·5]) from 71 011 participants from 37 studies. In the 599 912 current drinkers included in the analysis, we recorded 40 310 deaths and 39 018 incident cardiovascular disease events during 5·4 million person-years of follow-up. For all-cause mortality, we recorded a positive and curvilinear association with the level of alcohol consumption, with the minimum mortality risk around or below 100 g per week. Alcohol consumption was roughly linearly associated with a higher risk of stroke (HR per 100 g per week higher consumption 1·14, 95% CI, 1·10-1·17), coronary disease excluding myocardial infarction (1·06, 1·00-1·11), heart failure (1·09, 1·03-1·15), fatal hypertensive disease (1·24, 1·15-1·33); and fatal aortic aneurysm (1·15, 1·03-1·28). By contrast, increased alcohol consumption was log-linearly associated with a lower risk of myocardial infarction (HR 0·94, 0·91-0·97). In comparison to those who reported drinking >0-≤100 g per week, those who reported drinking >100-≤200 g per week, >200-≤350 g per week, or >350 g per week had lower life expectancy at age 40 years of approximately 6 months, 1-2 years, or 4-5 years, respectively. In current drinkers of alcohol in high-income countries, the threshold for lowest risk of all-cause mortality was about 100 g/week. For cardiovascular disease subtypes other than myocardial infarction, there were no clear risk thresholds below which lower alcohol consumption stopped being associated with lower disease risk. These data support limits for alcohol consumption that are lower than those recommended in most current guidelines. UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, European Union Framework 7, and European Research Council.

Conflicting evidence exists regarding the association between saturated fatty acids (SFAs) and type 2 diabetes. In this longitudinal case-cohort study, we aimed to investigate the prospective associations between objectively measured individual plasma phospholipid SFAs and incident type 2 diabetes in EPIC-InterAct participants. The EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study includes 12,403 people with incident type 2 diabetes and a representative subcohort of 16,154 individuals who were selected from a cohort of 340.234 European participants with 3·99 million person-years of follow-up (the EPIC study). Incident type 2 diabetes was ascertained until Dec 31, 2007, by a review of several sources of evidence. Gas chromatography was used to measure the distribution of fatty acids in plasma phospholipids (mol%); samples from people with type 2 diabetes and subcohort participants were processed in a random order by centre, and laboratory staff were masked to participant characteristics. We estimated country-specific hazard ratios (HRs) for associations per SD of each SFA with incident type 2 diabetes using Prentice-weighted Cox regression, which is weighted for case-cohort sampling, and pooled our findings using random-effects meta-analysis. SFAs accounted for 46% of total plasma phospholipid fatty acids. In adjusted analyses, different individual SFAs were associated with incident type 2 diabetes in opposing directions. Even-chain SFAs that were measured (14:0 [myristic acid], 16:0 [palmitic acid], and 18:0 [stearic acid]) were positively associated with incident type 2 diabetes (HR [95% CI] per SD difference: myristic acid 1·15 [95% CI 1·09-1·22], palmitic acid 1·26 [1·15-1·37], and stearic acid 1·06 [1·00-1·13]). By contrast, measured odd-chain SFAs (15:0 [pentadecanoic acid] and 17:0 [heptadecanoic acid]) were inversely associated with incident type 2 diabetes (HR [95% CI] per 1 SD difference: 0·79 [0·73-0·85] for pentadecanoic acid and 0·67 [0·63-0·71] for heptadecanoic acid), as were measured longer-chain SFAs (20:0 [arachidic acid], 22:0 [behenic acid], 23:0 [tricosanoic acid], and 24:0 [lignoceric acid]), with HRs ranging from 0·72 to 0·81 (95% CIs ranging between 0·61 and 0·92). Our findings were robust to a range of sensitivity analyses. Different individual plasma phospholipid SFAs were associated with incident type 2 diabetes in opposite directions, which suggests that SFAs are not homogeneous in their effects. Our findings emphasise the importance of the recognition of subtypes of these fatty acids. An improved understanding of differences in sources of individual SFAs from dietary intake versus endogenous metabolism is needed. EU FP6 programme, Medical Research Council Epidemiology Unit, Medical Research Council Human Nutrition Research, and Cambridge Lipidomics Biomarker Research Initiative.

The role of C17:0 and C15:0 in human health has recently been reinforced following a number of important biological and nutritional observations. Historically, odd chain saturated fatty acids (OCS-FAs) were used as internal standards in GC-MS methods of total fatty acids and LC-MS methods of intact lipids, as it was thought their concentrations were insignificant in humans. However, it has been thought that increased consumption of dairy products has an association with an increase in blood plasma OCS-FAs. However, there is currently no direct evidence but rather a casual association through epidemiology studies. Furthermore, a number of studies on cardiometabolic diseases have shown that plasma concentrations of OCS-FAs are associated with lower disease risk, although the mechanism responsible for this is debated. One possible mechanism for the endogenous production of OCS-FAs is α-oxidation, involving the activation, then hydroxylation of the α-carbon, followed by the removal of the terminal carboxyl group. Differentiation human adipocytes showed a distinct increase in the concentration of OCS-FAs, which was possibly caused through α-oxidation. Further evidence for an endogenous pathway, is in human plasma, where the ratio of C15:0 to C17:0 is approximately 1:2 which is contradictory to the expected levels of C15:0 to C17:0 roughly 2:1 as detected in dairy fat. We review the literature on the dietary consumption of OCS-FAs and their potential endogenous metabolism.

Higher circulating levels of the branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs; i.e., isoleucine, leucine, and valine) are strongly associated with higher type 2 diabetes risk, but it is not known whether this association is causal. We undertook large-scale human genetic analyses to address this question. Genome-wide studies of BCAA levels in 16,596 individuals revealed five genomic regions associated at genome-wide levels of significance (p < 5 × 10⁻⁸). The strongest signal was 21 kb upstream of the PPM1K gene (beta in standard deviations [SDs] of leucine per allele = 0.08, p = 3.9 × 10⁻²⁵), encoding an activator of the mitochondrial branched-chain alpha-ketoacid dehydrogenase (BCKD) responsible for the rate-limiting step in BCAA catabolism. In another analysis, in up to 47,877 cases of type 2 diabetes and 267,694 controls, a genetically predicted difference of 1 SD in amino acid level was associated with an odds ratio for type 2 diabetes of 1.44 (95% CI 1.26–1.65, p = 9.5 × 10⁻⁸) for isoleucine, 1.85 (95% CI 1.41–2.42, p = 7.3 × 10⁻⁶) for leucine, and 1.54 (95% CI 1.28–1.84, p = 4.2 × 10⁻⁶) for valine. Estimates were highly consistent with those from prospective observational studies of the association between BCAA levels and incident type 2 diabetes in a meta-analysis of 1,992 cases and 4,319 non-cases. Metabolome-wide association analyses of BCAA-raising alleles revealed high specificity to the BCAA pathway and an accumulation of metabolites upstream of branched-chain alpha-ketoacid oxidation, consistent with reduced BCKD activity. Limitations of this study are that, while the association of genetic variants appeared highly specific, the possibility of pleiotropic associations cannot be entirely excluded. Similar to other complex phenotypes, genetic scores used in the study captured a limited proportion of the heritability in BCAA levels. Therefore, it is possible that only some of the mechanisms that increase BCAA levels or affect BCAA metabolism are implicated in type 2 diabetes. Evidence from this large-scale human genetic and metabolomic study is consistent with a causal role of BCAA metabolism in the aetiology of type 2 diabetes.

A critical question facing the field of metabolomics is whether data obtained from different centers can be effectively compared and combined. An important aspect of this is the interlaboratory precision (reproducibility) of the analytical protocols used. We analyzed human samples in six laboratories using different instrumentation but a common protocol (the AbsoluteIDQ p180 kit) for the measurement of 189 metabolites via liquid chromatography (LC) or flow injection analysis (FIA) coupled to tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS). In spiked quality control (QC) samples 82% of metabolite measurements had an interlaboratory precision of <20%, while 83% of averaged individual laboratory measurements were accurate to within 20%. For 20 typical biological samples (serum and plasma from healthy individuals) the median interlaboratory coefficient of variation (CV) was 7.6%, with 85% of metabolites exhibiting a median interlaboratory CV of <20%. Precision was largely independent of the type of sample (serum or plasma) or the anticoagulant used but was reduced in a sample from a patient with dyslipidaemia. The median interlaboratory accuracy and precision of the assay for standard reference plasma (NIST SRM 1950) were 107% and 6.7%, respectively. Likely sources of irreproducibility were the near limit of detection (LOD) typical abundance of some metabolites and the degree of manual review and optimization of peak integration in the LC–MS/MS data after acquisition. Normalization to a reference material was crucial for the semi-quantitative FIA measurements. This is the first interlaboratory assessment of a widely used, targeted metabolomics assay illustrating the reproducibility of the protocol and how data generated on different instruments could be directly integrated in large-scale epidemiological studies.