Significance: Climate extremes are major drivers of long-term forest growth trends, but we still lack appropriate knowledge to anticipate their effects. Here, we apply a conceptual framework to assess the vulnerability of Circum-Mediterranean Abies refugia in response to climate warming, droughts, and heat waves. Using a tree-ring network and a process-based model, we assess the future vulnerability of Mediterranean Abies forests. Models anticipate abrupt growth reductions for the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing forest die-off in the past decades. However, growth would increase in moist refugia. Circum-Mediterranean fir forests currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable according to the climate model predictions for the late 21st century.

Alpine treelines are considered monitors of the effects of climate on forest growth and dynamics. Treelines are expected to react to current climate warming by showing upslope migrations. However, treeline dynamics are often characterized by lagged responses to rising temperatures, that is, treeline inertia. In addition, encroachment within the treeline ecotone seems to be a more widespread response to climate warming than treeline ascent. We investigate how the treeline responds to climate in a Pyrenean site with an intense Mountain pine (Pinus uncinata) regeneration but also abundant dead trees. We use dendrochronology to reconstruct treeline dynamics (growth, tree recruitment, and death) and to build an age structure of Pyrenean Mountain pine forests, and relate them to temperature reconstructions of the study area. We also describe the spatial structure and estimate the size reproductive threshold of pine recruits. The study treeline showed profuse pine recruitment in the 1980s. These recruit...

The ability of trees to cope with climate change is a pivotal feature of forest ecosystems, especially for rear-edge populations facing warm and dry conditions. To evaluate current and future forests threats, a multi-proxy focus on the growth, anatomical and physiological responses to climate change is needed. We examined the long-term xylem adjustments to climate variability of the temperate Quercus robur L. at its rear edge and the sub-Mediterranean Quercus pyrenaica Willd. Both species coexist at a mesic (ME, humid and warmer) and a xeric (XE, dry and cooler) site in northern Spain, the latter experiencing increasing temperatures in recent decades. We compared xylem traits at each site and assessed their trends, relationships and responses to climate (1960–2008). Traits included basal area increment, earlywood vessel hydraulic diameter, density and theoretical-specific hydraulic conductivity together with latewood oxygen (δ¹⁸O) stable isotopes and δ¹³C-derived water-use efficiency (iWUE). Quercus robur showed the highest growth at ME, likely through enhanced cambial activity. Quercus pyrenaica had higher iWUE at XE compared with ME, but limited plasticity of anatomical xylem traits was found for the two oak species. Similar physiological performance was found for both species. The iWUE augmented in recent years especially at XE, likely explained by stomatal closure given the increasing δ¹⁸O signal in response to drier and sunnier growing seasons. Overall, traits were more correlated at XE than at ME. The iWUE improvements were linked to higher growth up to a threshold (~85 μmol mol^–1) after which reduced growth was found at XE. Our results are consistent with Q. pyrenaica and Q. robur coexisting at the central and dry edge of the climatic species distribution, respectively, showing similar responses to buffer warmer conditions. In fact, the observed adjustments found for Q. robur point towards growth stability of similar rear-edge oak populations under warmer climate conditions.