Objective: To accurately calculate the risk for postoperative complications and death after surgery in the preoperative period using machine-learning modeling of clinical data. Background: Postoperative complications cause a 2-fold increase in the 30-day mortality and cost, and are associated with long-term consequences. The ability to precisely forecast the risk for major complications before surgery is limited. Methods: In a single-center cohort of 51,457 surgical patients undergoing major inpatient surgery, we have developed and validated an automated analytics framework for a preoperative risk algorithm (MySurgeryRisk) that uses existing clinical data in electronic health records to forecast patient-level probabilistic risk scores for 8 major postoperative complications (acute kidney injury, sepsis, venous thromboembolism, intensive care unit admission >48 hours, mechanical ventilation >48 hours, wound, neurologic, and cardiovascular complications) and death up to 24 months after surgery. We used the area under the receiver characteristic curve (AUC) and predictiveness curves to evaluate model performance. Results: MySurgeryRisk calculates probabilistic risk scores for 8 postoperative complications with AUC values ranging between 0.82 and 0.94 [99% confidence intervals (CIs) 0.81–0.94]. The model predicts the risk for death at 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months with AUC values ranging between 0.77 and 0.83 (99% CI 0.76–0.85). Conclusions: We constructed an automated predictive analytics framework for machine-learning algorithm with high discriminatory ability for assessing the risk of surgical complications and death using readily available preoperative electronic health records data. The feasibility of this novel algorithm implemented in real time clinical workflow requires further testing.

Funding has been viewed in the literature as one of the main determinants of scientific activities. Also, at an individual level, securing funding is one of the most important factors for a researcher, enabling him/her to carry out research projects. However, not everyone is successful in obtaining the necessary funds. The main objective of this work is to measure the effect of several important factors such as past productivity, scientific collaboration or career age of researchers, on the amount of funding that is allocated to them. For this purpose, the paper estimates a temporal non-linear multiple regression model. According to the results, although past productivity of researchers positively affects the funding level, our findings highlight the significant role of networking and collaboration. It was observed that being a member of large scientific teams and getting connected to productive researchers who have also a good control over the collaboration network and the flow of information can increase the chances for securing more money. In fact, our results show that in the quest for the research money it is more important how researchers build their collaboration network than what publications they produce and whether they are cited.