Warming-induced carbon loss through terrestrial ecosystem respiration (Re) is likely getting stronger in high latitudes and cold regions because of the more rapid warming and higher temperature sensitivity of Re (Q₁₀). However, it is not known whether the spatial relationship between Q₁₀ and temperature also holds temporally under a future warmer climate. Here, we analyzed apparent Q₁₀ values derived from multiyear observations at 74 FLUXNET sites spanning diverse climates and biomes. We found warming-induced decline in Q₁₀ is stronger at colder regions than other locations, which is consistent with a meta-analysis of 54 field warming experiments across the globe. We predict future warming will shrink the global variability of Q₁₀ values to an average of 1.44 across the globe under a high emission trajectory (RCP 8.5) by the end of the century. Therefore, warming-induced carbon loss may be less than previously assumed because of Q₁₀ homogenization in a warming world.

The natural shift in land cover from non-vegetated to vegetated land is termed as vegetation expansion, which has substantial impacts on regional climate conditions and land surface energy balance. Barrens dominate the northwestern Tibetan Plateau, where vegetation is predicted to expand northwestward with the ongoing climate warming. However, rare studies have confirmed such a forecast with large-scale vegetation monitoring. In this study, we used a landcover dataset, classified according to the International Geosphere–Biosphere Program criteria, to examine previous model-based predictions and the role of climate on the expansion rate across the plateau. Our results showed that shrublands, open forests, grasslands, and water bodies expanded while evergreen and deciduous broadleaf forests, croplands and barrens shrank during the period 2001–2018. Vegetation expanded by 33,566 km² accounting for about 1.3% of the total area of this plateau and the land cover shifting from barrens to grasslands was the primary way of vegetation expansion. Spatially, the vegetation expanded northwestward to lands with colder, drier, and more radiation in the climate. Increasing precipitation positively correlated with the vegetation expansion rate for the arid and semi-arid northwest Tibetan Plateau and warming contributed to the vegetation expanding in the semi-humid southeast Tibetan Plateau. Our results verified the predictions of models and highlighted the “greening” on barrens in recent years.

The timing regimes of precipitation can exert profound impacts on grassland ecosystems. However, it is still unclear how the peak aboveground biomass (AGB_peak) of alpine grasslands responds to the temporal variability of growing season precipitation (GSP) on the northern Tibetan Plateau. Here, the temporal variability of precipitation was defined as the number and intensity of precipitation events as well as the time interval between consecutive precipitation events. We conducted annual field measurements of AGB_peak between 2009 and 2016 at four sites that were representative of alpine meadow, meadow-steppe, alpine steppe, and desert-steppe. Thus, an empirical model was established with the time series of the field-measured AGB_peak and the corresponding enhanced vegetation index (EVI) (R² = 0.78), which was used to estimate grassland AGB_peak at the regional scale. The relative importance of the three indices of the temporal variability of precipitation, events, intensity, and time interval on grassland AGB_peak was quantified by principal component regression and shown in a red–green–blue (RGB) composition map. The standardized importance values were used to calculate the vegetation sensitivity index to the temporal variability of precipitation (VSIP). Our results showed that the standardized VSIP was larger than 60 for only 15% of alpine grassland pixels and that AGB_peak did not change significantly for more than 60% of alpine grassland pixels over the past decades, which was likely due to the nonsignificant changes in the temporal variability of precipitation in most pixels. However, a U-shaped relationship was found between VSIP and GSP across the four representative grassland types, indicating that the sensitivity of grassland AGB_peak to precipitation was dependent on the types of grassland communities. Moreover, we found that the temporal variability of precipitation explained more of the field-measured AGB_peak variance than did the total amount of precipitation alone at the site scale, which implies that the mechanisms underlying how the temporal variability of precipitation controls the AGB_peak of alpine grasslands should be better understood at the local scale. We hypothesize that alpine grassland plants promptly respond to the temporal variability of precipitation to keep community biomass production more stable over time, but this conclusion should be further tested. Finally, we call for a long-term experimental study that includes multiple natural and anthropogenic factors together, such as warming, nitrogen deposition, and grazing and fencing, to better understand the mechanisms of alpine grassland stability on the Tibetan Plateau.

Understanding the importance of temperature and precipitation on plant productivity is beneficial, to reveal the potential impact of climate change on vegetation growth. Although some studies have quantified the response of vegetation productivity to climate change at local, regional, and global scales, changes in climatic constraints on vegetation productivity over time are not well understood. This study combines the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the net primary production (NPP) modeled by CASA during the plant-growing season, to quantify the interplay of climatic (growing-season temperature and precipitation, GST and GSP) constraints on alpine-grassland productivity on the Tibetan Plateau, as well as the temporal dynamics of these constraints. The results showed that (1) 42.2% and 36.3% of grassland NDVI and NPP on the Tibetan Plateau increased significantly from 2000 to 2019. GSP controlled grassland growth in dryland regions, while humid grasslands were controlled by the GST. (2) The response strength of the NDVI and NPP to precipitation (partial correlation coefficient R_NDVI-GSP and R_NPP-GSP) increased substantially between 2000 and 2019. Especially, the R_NDVI-GSP and R_NPP-GSP increased from 0.14 and 0.01 in the first 10year period (2000–2009) to 0.83 and 0.78 in the second 10-year period (2010–2019), respectively. As a result, the controlling factor for alpine-grassland productivity variations shifted from temperature during 2000–2009 to precipitation during 2010–2019. (3) The increase in precipitation constraints was mainly distributed in dryland regions of the plateau. This study highlights that the climatic constraints on alpine-grassland productivity might change under ongoing climate change, which helps the understanding of the ecological responses and helps predict how vegetation productivity changes in the future.