Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) in plasma cell free DNA (cfDNA) of cancer patients is associated with poor prognosis, but is challenging to detect from low plasma volumes. In metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC), ctDNA assays are needed to prognosticate outcomes of patients treated with androgen receptor (AR) inhibitors. We develop a custom targeted cfDNA sequencing assay, named AR-ctDETECT, to detect ctDNA in limiting plasma cfDNA available from mCRPC patients in the Alliance A031201 randomized phase 3 trial of enzalutamide with or without abiraterone. Of 776 patients, 59% are ctDNA-positive, with 26% having high ctDNA aneuploidy and 33% having low ctDNA aneuploidy but displaying AR gain or structural rearrangement, MYC/MYCN gain, or a pathogenic mutation. ctDNA-positive patients have significantly worse median overall survival than ctDNA-negative patients (29.0 months vs. 47.4 months, respectively). Here, we show that mCRPC patients identified as ctDNA-positive using the AR-ctDETECT assay have poor survival despite treatment with potent AR inhibitors in a phase 3 trial.

PURPOSE: We have previously developed and externally validated a prognostic model of overall survival (OS) in men with metastatic, castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) treated with docetaxel. We sought to externally validate this model in a broader group of men with docetaxel-naïve mCRPC and in specific subgroups (White, Black, Asian patients, different age groups, and specific treatments) and to classify patients into validated two and three prognostic risk groupings on the basis of the model.METHODS: Data from 8,083 docetaxel-naïve mCRPC men randomly assigned on seven phase III trials were used to validate the prognostic model of OS. We assessed the predictive performance of the model by computing the time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (tAUC) and validated the two-risk (low and high) and three-risk prognostic groups (low, intermediate, and high).RESULTS: The tAUC was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.73 to 0.75), and when adjusting for the first-line androgen receptor (AR) inhibitor trial status, the tAUC was 0.75 (95% CI, 0.74 to 0.76). Similar results were observed by the different racial, age, and treatment subgroups. In patients enrolled on first-line AR inhibitor trials, the median OS (months) in the low-, intermediate-, and high-prognostic risk groups were 43.3 (95% CI, 40.7 to 45.8), 27.7 (95% CI, 25.8 to 31.3), and 15.4 (95% CI, 14.0 to 17.9), respectively. Compared with the low-risk prognostic group, the hazard ratios for the high- and intermediate-risk groups were 4.3 (95% CI, 3.6 to 5.1; P < .0001) and 1.9 (95% CI, 1.7 to 2.1; P < .0001).CONCLUSION: This prognostic model for OS in docetaxel-naïve men with mCRPC has been validated using data from seven trials and yields similar results overall and across race, age, and different treatment classes. The prognostic risk groups are robust and can be used to identify groups of patients for enrichment designs and for stratification in randomized clinical trials.[Media: see text]

Purpose: CALGB 90206 was a phase III trial of 732 patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) comparing bevacizumab plus IFNα (BEV + IFN) with IFNα alone (IFN). No difference in overall survival (OS) was observed. Baseline samples were analyzed to identify predictive biomarkers for survival benefit. Patients and Methods: A total of 32 biomarkers were assessed in 498 consenting patients randomly assigned into training (n = 279) and testing (n = 219) sets. The proportional hazards model was used to test for treatment arm and biomarker interactions of OS. The estimated coefficients from the training set were used to compute a risk score for each patient and to classify patients by risk in the testing set. The resulting model was assessed for predictive accuracy using the time-dependent area under the ROC curve (tAUROC). Results: A statistically significant three-way interaction between IL6, hepatocyte growth factor (HGF), and bevacizumab treatment was observed in the training set and confirmed in the testing set (P < 0.0001). The model based on IL6, HGF, and bevacizumab treatment was predictive of OS (P < 0.001), with the high- and low-risk groups having a median OS of 10.2 [95% confidence interval (CI), 8.0–13.8] and 34.3 (95% CI, 28.5–40.5) months, respectively. The average tAUROC for the final model of OS based on 100 randomly split testing sets was 0.78 (first, third quartiles = 0.77, 0.79). Conclusions: IL6 and HGF are potential predictive biomarkers of OS benefit from BEV + IFN in patients with mRCC. The model based on key biological and clinical factors demonstrated predictive efficacy for OS. These markers warrant further validation in future anti-VEGF and immunotherapy in mRCC trials. See related commentaries by Mishkin and Kohn, p. 2722 and George and Bertagnolli, p. 2725

Upfront combination therapy in 81 chemotherapy/ARSI-naïve patients with mCRPC was well tolerated with improved PFS.

Purpose: Androgen receptor pathway inhibitors (ARPI), such as enzalutamide and abiraterone, are standard treatments for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). However, a subset of patients display primary resistance and most eventually acquire secondary resistance. This study aimed to define genomic features of ARPI resistance using longitudinal ctDNA analysis. Experimental Design: We used the targeted AR-ctDETECT cell-free DNA (cfDNA) sequencing assay to profile tumor-derived genomic alterations in plasma samples collected at baseline and progression from patients with mCRPC enrolled in the phase III Alliance A031201 trial of first-line enzalutamide with or without abiraterone. Analysis focused on 327 patients with paired samples available from both time points. Results: Progression plasma samples displayed elevated cfDNA levels and increased ctDNA positivity. AR was the most frequently altered gene at baseline and at progression. AR copy-number gains and AR genomic structural rearrangements (AR-GSR) increased at progression, along with copy-number losses of FANCA, POLD1, RAD54L, CDKN2A, ZNRF3, and ETS2. An AR extrachromosomal DNA signature was enriched at progression and was associated with AR-GSRs predicted to truncate the AR ligand-binding domain. Stratification by two extre mes of radiographic progression-free survival revealed preferential accumulation of AR alterations in patients with delayed progression and a higher burden of non-AR alterations in patients with rapid progression. Conclusions: AR alterations in ctDNA accumulate at progression in patients with mCRPC treated with ARPIs, especially in those with initially durable responses. These findings support the use of liquid biopsy to serially track resistance mechanisms and inform precision therapy in advanced prostate cancer. See related commentary by Chauhan et al., p. 2323