Daniel Ayllón

Prof. Daniel Ayllón

Biodiversity, Ecology and Evolution, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
orcid

Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

19Years (2008-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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1 January 2020 in Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
VGVolker Grimm
Volker Grimm
SRSteven F. Railsback
Steven F. Railsback
Christian Ernest VincenotChristian Ernest Vincenot
Christian Ernest Vincenot
Uta BergerUta Berger
Uta Berger
CGCara Gallagher
Cara Gallagher
DADaniel Ayllón
Daniel Ayllón
The Overview, Design concepts and Details (ODD) protocol for describing Individual-and Agent-Based Models (ABMs) is now widely accepted and used to document such models in journal articles. As a standardized document for providing a consistent, logical and readable account of the structure and dynamics of ABMs, some research groups also find it useful as a workflow for model design. Even so, there are still limitations to ODD that obstruct its more widespread adoption. Such limitations are discussed and addressed in this paper: the limited availability of guidance on how to use ODD; the length of ODD documents; limitations of ODD for highly complex models; lack of su icient details of many ODDs to enable reimplementation without access to the model code; and the lack of provision for sections in the document structure covering model design rationale, the model's underlying narrative, and the means by which the model's fitness for purpose is evaluated. We document the steps we have taken to provide better guidance on: structuring complex ODDs and an ODD summary for inclusion in a journal article (with full details in supplementary material; Table); using ODD to JASSS, () , http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/ / / .html Doi:. /jasss. point readers to relevant sections of the model code; update the document structure to include sections on model rationale and evaluation. We also further advocate the need for standard descriptions of simulation experiments and argue that ODD can in principle be used for any type of simulation model. Thereby

22 November 2011 in Global Change Biology
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Journal Article
Closed access
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Ana AlmodóvarAna Almodóvar
Ana Almodóvar
GNGraciela G. Nicola
Graciela G. Nicola
DADaniel Ayllón
Daniel Ayllón
Benigno ElviraBenigno Elvira
Benigno Elvira

10 November 2016 in Ecosystems
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Journal Article
Closed access
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VGVolker Grimm
Volker Grimm
DADaniel Ayllón
Daniel Ayllón
SRSteven F. Railsback
Steven F. Railsback

1 April 2016 in Ecological Modelling
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Journal Article
Closed access
DADaniel Ayllón
Daniel Ayllón
SRSteven F. Railsback
Steven F. Railsback
SVSimone Vincenzi
Simone Vincenzi
JGJürgen Groeneveld
Jürgen Groeneveld
AAAna Almodóvar
Ana Almodóvar
VGVolker Grimm
Volker Grimm

22 August 2021 in Diversity and Distributions
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
RBRocío A. Baquero
Rocío A. Baquero
ABA. Márcia Barbosa
A. Márcia Barbosa
DADaniel Ayllón
Daniel Ayllón
CGCarlos Guerra
Carlos Guerra
Enrique SanchezEnrique Sanchez
Enrique Sanchez
GNGraciela G. Nicola
Graciela G. Nicola
Aim: Invasive alien species (IAS) can cause profound impacts on ecosystem function and diversity, human health, well‐being and livelihoods. Climate change is an important driver of biological invasions, so it is critical to develop models and climate‐driven scenarios of IAS range shifts to establish preventive measures. In this study, we analyse how projected changes in the frequency and magnitude of climate extreme events could affect the spread of the six most widely distributed invasive vertebrate species in the Iberian Peninsula.Location: Iberian Peninsula.Taxa: Red avadavat (Amandava amandava), common waxbill (Estrilda astrild), monk parakeet (Myiopsitta monachus), rose‐ringed parakeet (Psittacula krameri), American mink (Neovison vison) and pond slider (Trachemys scripta).Methods: We followed best‐practice standards for species distribution models (SDMs) regarding handling of the response and predictor variables, model building and evaluation using metrics that assess different facets of model performance. We used an ensemble approach with four modelling methods of varying complexity, including both regression‐based and tree‐based machine‐learning algorithms. We analysed five regional models for current (1971–2000) and future climate (2021–2050). We used principal components analysis to assess consensus among model outputs and positively weighed predictions from well‐performing models.Results: Selected models showed high consensus and good predictive capacity on block cross‐validation areas. Generalized Linear Models and Generalized Additive Models scored highest in reliability (calibration), but Bayesian Additive Regression Trees provided the best balance between calibration and discrimination capacity. Forecasts include visible changes in environmental favourability, with losses generally outweighing the gains, but with some areas becoming more favourable for several species.Main conclusions: Increased frequency and/or intensity of climate extreme events associated with ongoing climate change are projected to reduce overall invasion risk for the species examined although increases in favourability should be expected locally.

1 February 2018 in Fisheries Research
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
GNGraciela G. Nicola
Graciela G. Nicola
Benigno ElviraBenigno Elvira
Benigno Elvira
BJBror Jonsson
Bror Jonsson
DADaniel Ayllón
Daniel Ayllón
AAAna Almodóvar
Ana Almodóvar