Electricity prices behave more irregular patterns due to uncertainties and effects of mixed-temporal primary energy markets. Thus, it is challenging to precisely forecast them. To conquer this barrier, an interpretable interval prediction method that seamlessly unifies cross-energy and electricity markets is proposed. At the outset, to clarity the feature rising the aberrant electricity prices, several exogenous, and multitemporal features from other primary energy markets, such as natural gas and coal markets, are unified to settle our database. Then, a Gaussian mixture model (GMM)-lightweight gradient boosting machine hybrid detector is presented to isolate and foresee the outlier sequence of electricity prices. A hybrid LSTNet-kernel density estimation (LSTNet-KDE) method is further proposed to enable outlier-adaptive interpretable interval prediction. Specifically, the LSTNet contributes to amalgamating multitemporality across markets and predicting the principal trends, and the KDE serves to encapsulate the uncertainty for the GMM-foreseen outliers. The method further merges with the Shapley additive explanations technique, such that exogenous latent features that induce electricity prices outliers can be finally comprehended. The numerical study on the real-world Danish electricity market verifies that, our proposed method beats other rivals in terms of precision, especially notable in forecasting outliers of electricity prices.

Electricity prices are a central element of the electricity market, and accurate electricity price forecasting is critical for market participants. However, in the context of increasingly integrated economic markets, the complexity of the electricity system has increased. As a result, the number of factors required to consider in electricity price forecasting is growing. In addition, the high percentage of renewable energy penetration has increased the volatility of electricity generation, making it more challenging to predict prices accurately. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic forecasting method based on SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanation) feature selection and LSTNet (long- and short-term time-series network) quantile regression. First, to reduce feature redundancy and overfitting, we use the SHAP method to perform feature selection in a high-dimensional input feature set, and specifically analyze the magnitude and manner in which features affect electricity prices. Second, we apply the LSTNet quantile regression model to predict the electricity value under different quantiles. Finally, the probability density function and the prediction interval of the predicted electricity prices are obtained by kernel density estimation. The case of the Danish electricity market validates the effectiveness and accuracy of our proposed method. The accuracy of the proposed method is better than that of other methods, and we assess the importance and direction of the impact of features on electricity prices.

In order to adapt to the development of the green power certificate trading (GPCT) and carbon emissions trading (CET) market, reduce the carbon emissions of the distribution network and increase the investment income, this paper proposes a new distribution network (NDN) planning and simulation operation bi-layer model with new energy (NE) as the main body, considering the GPCT and CET mechanisms. First, the upper layer determines the capacity and location of wind turbine (WT), photovoltaic (PV), hydraulic turbine (HT), micro turbine (MT), and energy storage (ES), while the lower simulation operation considers the operation costs of WT, PV, HT, MT, ES, load demand response (DR) and carbon emissions. The planning objective was to minimize the total cost of investment, operation and carbon emissions in the planning period. Then, on the basis of a traditional distribution network (TDN), security constraints, carbon emissions intensity, GPCT volume and CET volume were added. Finally, the cases study of the improved IEEE33 node and PG&E69 node NDN planning were provided. The results of NDN planning and TDN planning are compared and analyzed, and a sensitivity analysis was carried out to study the impact of GPCT and CET mechanisms with different price levels on investment planning. The results verify the applicability and rationality of the model.