Eliana Vivas

Mrs. Eliana Vivas

Doctoral Student, Escuela de Ingeniería Informática, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Chile
orcid

Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

8Years (2019-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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15 December 2020 in Entropy
Verified
Journal Article
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EVEliana Vivas
Eliana Vivas
HAHector Allende-Cid
Hector Allende-Cid
RSRodrigo Salas
Rodrigo Salas
Electric power forecasting plays a substantial role in the administration and balance of current power systems. For this reason, accurate predictions of service demands are needed to develop better programming for the generation and distribution of power and to reduce the risk of vulnerabilities in the integration of an electric power system. For the purposes of the current study, a systematic literature review was applied to identify the type of model that has the highest propensity to show precision in the context of electric power forecasting. The state-of-the-art model in accurate electric power forecasting was determined from the results reported in 257 accuracy tests from five geographic regions. Two classes of forecasting models were compared: classical statistical or mathematical (MSC) and machine learning (ML) models. Furthermore, the use of hybrid models that have made significant contributions to electric power forecasting is identified, and a case of study is applied to demonstrate its good performance when compared with traditional models. Among our main findings, we conclude that forecasting errors are minimized by reducing the time horizon, that ML models that consider various sources of exogenous variability tend to have better forecast accuracy, and finally, that the accuracy of the forecasting models has significantly increased over the last five years.

19 October 2022 in Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
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Journal Article
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EVEliana Vivas
Eliana Vivas
LGLelys Bravo de Guenni
Lelys Bravo de Guenni
HAHector Allende-Cid
Hector Allende-Cid
RSRodrigo Salas
Rodrigo Salas

5 November 2019 in Entropy
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Journal Article
Open access
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EVEliana Vivas
Eliana Vivas
HAHector Allende-Cid
Hector Allende-Cid
RSRodrigo Salas
Rodrigo Salas
LGLelys Bravo de Guenni
Lelys Bravo de Guenni
It is well known that environmental fluctuations and fishing efforts modify fishing patterns in various parts of the world. One of the most affected areas is northern Chile. The reduction of the gaps in the implementation of national fisheries’ management policies and the basic knowledge that supports the making of such decisions are crucial. That is why in this research, a transfer function method with variable coefficients is proposed to forecast monthly disembarkation of anchovies and sardines in northern Chile, taking into account the incidence of large-scale climatic variables on landings. The method uses a least squares procedure and wavelets to expand the coefficients of the transfer function. Linear estimators of the time varying coefficients are proposed, followed by a truncation of the wavelet expansion up to an appropriate scale. Finally, the estimators for the transfer function coefficients are obtained by using the inverse wavelet transformation. Research results suggest that the transfer function models with variable coefficients fit the behavior of the anchovies’ landing with great accuracy, while the use of transfer function models with constant coefficients fits sardines’ landings better. Both fisheries’ landings could be explained to a large extent from the large scale climatic variables.

31 January 2025 in International Journal of Intelligent Systems
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Journal Article
Open access
EVEliana Vivas
Eliana Vivas
HAHector Allende-Cid
Hector Allende-Cid
LGLelys Bravo de Guenni
Lelys Bravo de Guenni
Aurelio F. BarivieraAurelio F. Bariviera
Aurelio F. Bariviera
RSRodrigo Salas
Rodrigo Salas
Renewable energy forecasting is crucial for pollution prevention, management, and long‐term sustainability. In response to the challenges associated with energy forecasting, the simultaneous deployment of several data‐processing approaches has been used in a variety of studies in order to improve the energy–time‐series analysis, finding that, when combined with the wavelet analysis, deep learning techniques can achieve high accuracy in energy forecasting applications. Consequently, we investigate the implementation of various wavelets within the structure of a long short‐term memory neural network (LSTM), resulting in the new LSTM wavelet (LSTMW) neural network. In addition, and as an improvement phase, we modeled the uncertainty and incorporated it into the forecast so that systemic biases and deviations could be accounted for (LSTMW with luster: LSTMWL). The models were evaluated using data from six renewable power generation plants in Chile. When compared to other approaches, experimental results show that our method provides a prediction error within an acceptable range, achieving a coefficient of determination ( R 2 ) between 0.73 and 0.98 across different test scenarios, and a consistent alignment between forecasted and observed values, particularly during the first 3 prediction steps.

20 June 2026 in Scientific Reports
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Journal Article
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EVEliana Vivas
Eliana Vivas
CJChengyan Ji
Chengyan Ji
LGLelys Bravo de Guenni
Lelys Bravo de Guenni
We propose a leakage-free wavelet-based methodology for drought prediction that enables both competitive forecasting performance and improved interpretability of predictor–target relationships. Unlike standard time-series decomposition approaches, the wavelet transform is applied within moving windows of the past values, preventing the use of future information during model training. The method merges local and large-scale climate predictors across multiple temporal scales and is evaluated using 76 years of drought data from Illinois, USA. Predictive performance is assessed using RMSE, SMAPE, MASE, R 2 , and directional accuracy (DA), including uncertainty calculated with seasonal bootstrap confidence intervals. The proposed model frequently outperforms naïve and univariate wavelet baselines, achieving improvements of up to 26.5% in RMSE and 4.95% in SMAPE and higher directional accuracy in diverse scenarios compared to several benchmark methods. Through decomposing both predictors and target variables, the methodology helps characterize how different frequency components are associated with drought evolution, providing a more interpretable representation of hydroclimatic interactions and additional insights into the scale-dependent dynamics of drought processes.