Cupressus gigantea (C. gigantea) is an endemic endangered species on the Tibetan Plateau; its potential suitable areas and priority protection in the context of global climate change remain poorly predicted. This study utilized Biomod2 and Marxan to assess the potential suitable areas and priority protection for C. gigantea. Our study revealed that the suitable areas of C. gigantea were concentrated in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, with the center in Lang County. Temperature was identified as a crucial environmental factor influencing the distribution of C. gigantea. Over the coming decades, the suitable range of C. gigantea expanded modestly, while its overall distribution remained relatively stable. Moreover, the center of the highly suitable areas tended to migrate towards Milin County in the northeast. Presently, significant areas for improvement are needed to establish protected areas for C. gigantea. The most feasible priority protected areas were located between the Lang and Milin counties in Tibet, which have more concentrated and undisturbed habitats. These results provide scientific guidance for the conservation and planning of C. gigantea, contributing to the stability and sustainability of ecosystems.

Climate change has had an almost irreversible impact on the distribution patterns of tree species on the Tibetan Plateau, driving some vulnerable species to the brink of extinction. Therefore, it is important to assess the vulnerability of tree species in climate-sensitive areas under the following three IPCC-CMIP6 scenarios: SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585. The MaxEnt model was used to predict adaptive distribution for one endangered (Acer wardii W. W. Smith (A. wardii)) and six vulnerable maple plants on the Tibetan Plateau under current and future conditions. We then evaluated their vulnerability using the landscape fragmentation index. Our results showed that the current adaptive areas of vulnerable maple species were mainly distributed in the southeast of the Tibetan Plateau. The dominant factors affecting adaptive areas were temperature annual range (BIO7) for Acer sikkimense Miq. and Acer sterculiaceum Wall.; annual precipitation (BIO12) for Acer cappadocicum Gled.; precipitation of driest month (BIO14) for Acer pectinatum Wall. ex G. Nicholson, Acer taronense Hand.-Mazz., and A. wardii; and subsoil clay fraction (S_CLAY) for Acer campbellii Hook.f. & Thoms. ex Hiern (A. campbellii) Under the three future scenarios, the adaptive areas of maple on the Tibetan Plateau area shifted to the northwest, and habitat suitability increased in the northwestern part of the adaptive areas. In the SSP370 scenario, all seven species showed an increase in adaptive areas, while certain species decreased in some periods under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios. The status of the endangered maple species is likely to be even more fragile under the three future scenarios. A. wardii and A. campbellii are more vulnerable and may face extinction, requiring immediate attention and protection. In contrast, the vulnerability of the remaining five species decreased. In conclusion, this study provides recommendations for conserving vulnerable maple species on the Tibetan Plateau. Our data support understanding the distributional changes and vulnerability assessment of these tree species.

The suitable habitat of endangered Ephedra species has been severely threatened and affected by climate change and anthropogenic activities; however, their migration trends and restoration strategies are still relatively understudied. In this study, we utilized the MaxEnt model to simulate the suitable habitats of five endangered Ephedra species in China under current and future climate scenarios. Additionally, we identified significant ecological corridors by incorporating the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model. Under the current climate scenario, the suitable area of Ephedra equisetina Bunge, Ephedra intermedia Schrenk ex Mey, Ephedra sinica Stapf, and Ephedra monosperma Gmel ex Mey comprised 16% of the area in China, while Ephedra rhytidosperma Pachom comprised only 0.05%. The distribution patterns of these five Ephedra species were primarily influenced by altitude, salinity, temperature, and precipitation. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable areas of E. equisetina, E. intermedia, and E. sinica are projected to expand, while that of E. monosperma is expected to contract. Notably, E. rhytidosperma will lose its suitable area in the future. Our identified ecological corridors showed that the first-level corridors encompassed a wider geographical expanse, incorporating E. equisetina, E. intermedia, E. sinica, and E. monosperma, while that of E. rhytidosperma exhibited a shorter length and covered fewer geographical areas. Overall, our study provides novel insights into identifying priority protected areas and protection strategies targeting endangered Ephedra species.

The insect predator–prey system mediates several feedback mechanisms which regulate species abundance and spatial distribution. However, the spatiotemporal dynamics of such discrete systems with the refuge effect remain elusive. In this study, we analyzed a discrete Holling type II model incorporating the refuge effect using theoretical calculations and numerical simulations, and selected moths with high and low growth rates as two exemplifications. The result indicates that only the flip bifurcation opens the routes to chaos, and the system undergoes four spatiotemporally behavioral patterns (from the frozen random pattern to the defect chaotic diffusion pattern, then the competition intermittency pattern, and finally to the fully developed turbulence pattern). Furthermore, as the refuge effect increases, moths with relatively slower growth rates tend to maintain stability at relatively low densities, whereas moths with relatively faster growth rates can induce chaos and unpredictability on the population. According to the theoretical guidance of this study, the refuge effect can be adjusted to control pest populations effectively, which provides a new theoretical perspective and is a feasible tool for protecting crops.

Global warming is critical to the distribution pattern of endangered plants; therefore, understanding the future changes in the adaptive areas of endangered spruce and driving factors on the Tibetan Plateau is of great research significance for spruce species conservation and sustainability. In this study, variations in the distribution pattern of four endangered spruce species (Picea. Balfouriana, Picea. Linzhiensis, Picea. Complanata, and Picea. Aurantiaca) on the Tibetan Plateau were predicted by the MaxEnt model, and the important environmental variables affecting its geographic distribution were analyzed. We found that under the current climate conditions, the four endangered spruce species were mainly situated in the southern and southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The mean temperature of the coldest quarter was a key environmental variable affecting the geographic distribution of four endangered spruce species, with suitable growth ranges of −9–8 °C for P. balfouriana and −6–5 °C for P. linzhiensis, P. complanata, and P. aurantiaca. Under different future climate pathways, the highly suitable habitat of four endangered spruce was mainly situated in the east, south, and southeast districts of the Tibetan Plateau. With the suitable growth range of key variables continuing to expand on the Tibetan Plateau, the area of suitable habitat for each of the four endangered spruce species increases to varying degrees. Compared with the current climate, four endangered spruce species will expand to the northwest of the Tibetan Plateau under different future climate scenarios, and the degree of expansion will increase with the increase in temperature. This study not only reveals the response of suitable habitats of four endangered spruce species to global warming, but also provides scientific insights for spruce population conservation and sustainable development.