Mountain ecosystems are increasingly being affected by global environmental change, challenging the ubiquitous agro-ecosystem-based livelihoods of the people. This article uses participatory research methods to document and analyse (1) local and regional impacts of climate change on ecosystem services (ES) and livelihoods, and (2) the main current adaptation strategies of local peoples in the mountains of central Nepal. Major observed impacts include reduced precipitation and an irregular rainfall pattern, affecting paddy cultivation and winter crop production. Production is also affected by increased pest and pathogen prevalence. Other impacts include increased livestock disease and reduced forest regeneration. Our results confirm earlier findings of a decrease in the district’s forest cover in past; however, substantial efforts in forest conservation and management at the local level have gradually increased forest cover in recent years. Despite the increased potential for forest ecosystem services, the availability of forest goods, in particular fuel wood, fodder and litter, have decreased because of a strict regulation on forest goods extraction. Additionally, new invasive species are colonising these forests, preventing regeneration of preferred and local forest vegetation in some areas and, as a result, the densities of tree crops are changing. Most users cope with these changes by short term, reactive solutions. However, a number of local adaptation strategies, such as changing both agricultural practices and water harvesting and management, are increasing efficiency in resource use. To increase the adaptive capacity of poor households, we suggest it is essential to incorporate climate change adaptations within the local planning process.

Ecosystems provide a wide range of goods, services or ecosystem services (ES) to society. Estimating the impact of land use and land cover (LULC) changes on ES values (ESV) is an important tool to support decision making. This study used remote sensing and GIS tools to analyze LULC change and transitions from 2001 to 2016 and assess its impact on ESV in a tropical forested landscape in the southern plains of Nepal. The total ESV of the landscape for the year 2016 is estimated at USD 1264 million year⁻¹. As forests are the dominant land cover class and have high ES value per hectare, they have the highest contribution in total ESV. However, as a result of LULC change (loss of forests, water bodies, and agricultural land), the total ESV of the landscape has declined by USD 11 million year⁻¹. Major reductions come from the loss in values of climate regulation, water supply, provision of raw materials and food production. To halt the ongoing loss of ES and maintain the supply and balance of different ES in the landscape, it is important to properly monitor, manage and utilize ecosystems. We believe this study will inform policymakers, environmental managers, and the general public on the ongoing changes and contribute to developing effective land use policy in the region.

Land use and land cover (LULC) change causes biodiversity decline through loss, alteration, and fragmentation of habitats. There are uncertainties on how LULC will change in the future and the effect of such change on biodiversity. In this paper we applied the Land Change Modeler (LCM) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Scenario Generator tool to develop three spatially explicit LULC future scenarios from 2015 to 2030 in the Pulang Pisau district of Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. The district is experiencing a rapid loss of biodiversity as a result of unprecedented LULC changes. Further, we used the InVEST Habitat Quality model to map habitat quality as a proxy to biodiversity in each of the scenarios. We find habitat quality decline is largest in a scenario where past trends of LULC change continue, followed by a scenario with planned agricultural expansion. Alternately, a conservation-oriented scenario results in significant improvements in habitat quality for biodiversity. This information can support in developing appropriate land use policy for biodiversity conservation in Indonesia.