The European Union (EU), which has led international discussions on global warming, officially announced its plan for the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in July 2021. Many existing studies have indicated the CBAM will curtail greenhouse gases, and will subsequently be positive in terms of reducing global warming. However, serious legal issues and trade disputes are expected in terms of the compatibility of the CBAM with the trade rules of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). Contrary to the EU’s explanation, the international community has a strong view of CBAM as a new trade barrier under the guise of preventing global warming. Above all, this is because it is an arbitrary measure by the EU and not the one that has been internationally agreed upon. Therefore, this paper tries to identify the pitfalls and estimate the global cost of CBAM, arguing that the mechanism is not in line with international trade rules, and that many countries will not sit back and suffer from it. The world economy will inevitably face a vicious cycle of trade retaliation. The CBAM will drive up trade costs and cause another trade distortion. While the goal of preventing climate change is good, the CBAM scheme is too costly for the world economy.

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to test the 5GP concept with measurement of the performance of Busan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Shanghai ports, employing a hybrid method of consistent fuzzy preference relation (CFPR), VIsekriterijumska Optimizacija i KOmpromisno Resenje (VIKOR) and PROMETHEE.Design/methodology/approach: The authors developed the concept of the fifth generation ports (5GPs), and apply CFPR, VIKOR and preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluations (PROMETHEE) to evaluate the 5GPs.Findings: The performance of the ports of Hong Kong and Singapore is close to meet the definition of 5GP criteria. On the contrary, ports of Busan and Shanghai are still behind the 5GP stage in light of the majority of the evaluation criteria’s performance.Research limitations/implications: This paper studies four ports. More empirical tests are needed to verify the applicability of the 5GP concept toward other ports.Practical implications: The findings provided port managers with the insight of how to improve their port to meet the criteria of 5GP.Social implications: New criteria and higher expectations of existing requirements present challenges to port managers for a need to raise the bar of service standards and develop new competencies.Originality/value: The authors developed the concept of the 5GPs. Newly developed 5GP contributes to expanding the concepts of first to fourth generation ports developed by UNCTAD.

Several initiatives have emerged for regional economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region. The United States has led the negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement, and ASEAN countries have recently started to promote the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. This paper estimates the net economic impact of these initiatives by eliminating the overlapping portions of free trade agreement–related economic gains through the use of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. The paper analyzes the economic and political feasibility of these two initiatives and assesses their economic impacts. Finally, the paper provides implications for economic integration in East Asia based on a quantitative assessment.

Various risks and uncertainties are strengthening the downside of the global economy. This paper aims to estimate the impact of the US–China conflict and the World Trade Organization (WTO) Appellate Body’s shutdown on global logistics demand and to show the seriousness of the situation. Existing literature studies on protectionism or the US–China trade conflict were considered, with a focus on the effects of specific issues or impact on bilateral relations. No research has quantitatively considered the adverse effects of the Appellate Body’s shutdown. In this situation, questions can be raised whether the current global shipping logistics system can be sustainable or not. This paper attempts to estimate the shrinking demand for shipping logistics due to global protectionism. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model and trade-cargo-container conversion methodology, which differentiates this paper from previous studies, the paper suggests that the combination of tariffs and NTBs can severely reduce international trade and the demand for maritime logistics services. Depending on the scenario, port cargo is expected to decrease by 3.95 to 6.9 trillion tons, which can be half of the global cargo. Based on these estimates, this paper suggests that a catastrophe could occur in global trade order as well as global maritime logistics. Finally, underlining that the international trade order should not be severely damaged, this paper proposes that countries around the world should seriously discuss this issue at the 12th WTO Trade Ministers’ Meeting in Kazakhstan in June 2020.

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the economic impact of a rising US trade protectionism on the economies of China, Japan, South Korea and the ASEAN countries and draw out some policy and strategic implications for the USA and East Asia. Design/methodology/approach: The authors employ a computable general equilibrium approach supplemented with qualitative analyses based on empirical evidence. Findings: An increase in US import tariffs would result in economic losses for the USA and the corresponding country or region to which the import tariff increase is applied. An increase in US import tariffs for Chinese goods alone would not have any spillover effects on other East Asian countries. But, an imposition of a border adjustment tax (BAT) for all countries and for all products would actually boost US economic growth. Advanced economies would enjoy GDP increases, but China, Korea and the ASEAN countries would face an economic loss in a longer term period, although they would enjoy some growth in the short term. However, when the BAT only applies to a specific East Asian country, USA would suffer an economic loss, with the exception of a BAT specifically targeted at the ASEAN countries. ASEAN countries would not experience any economic loss under all scenarios except in the case of import tariffs specifically targeted at ASEAN. Research limitations/implications: From the US perspective, it is beneficial to adopt a BAT for all countries and across the board. Under this arrangement, there would be an economic loss for China, Korea and the ASEAN countries in the longer term. An increase in US trade protectionism would only push the East Asian countries towards deeper economic integration, with serious implications for global pattern of trade and investment. Originality/value: The existing literature on the likely economic impact of US trade protectionism on East Asia is very scarce and based on surveys and subjective speculations. This study uses a quantitative method based on empirical evidence.

As a countermeasure to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries are implementing social distancing and mask-wearing. In this situation, the use of digital devices and untact activities are increasing. As a result, domestic and international e-commerce is increasing, and data is growing rapidly. Developed countries with advanced artificial intelligence and big data technologies have been striving to establish international regulations for digital trade in order to create a business environment that is advantageous for their own companies. This paper examines the e-commerce trend since the outbreak of COVID-19 and analyzes major issues related to digital trade rules under discussion. In particular, this paper pointed out that although Korea is recognized to be an advanced country considering its stage of industrial development and income level, the nation maintains the position of developing countries regarding digital trade. Based on this, this paper attempted to draw implications for the development of Korea's digital trade in the post COVID-19 world.