The first fall armyworm (FAW; Spodoptera frugiperda) attack in Yunnan, China, occurred in January 2019. Because FAW lacks diapause ability, its population outbreaks largely depend on environmental conditions experienced during the overwinter months. Thus, there is an urgent need to make short-term predictions regarding the potential overwintering distribution of FAW to prevent outbreaks. In this study, we selected the MaxEnt model with the optimal parameter combination to predict the potential overwintering distribution of FAW in Yunnan. Remote sensing data were used in the prediction to provide real-time surface conditions. The results predict variation in the severity and geographic distribution of suitability. The high potential distribution shows a concentration in southwestern Yunnan that suitability continues to increase from January to March, gradually extending to eastern Yunnan and a small part of the northern areas. The monthly independent contributions of meteorological, vegetation, and soil factors were 30.6%, 16.5%, and 3.4%, respectively, indicating that the suitability of conditions for FAW was not solely dominated by the weather and that ground surface conditions also played a decisive role. These results provide a basis for the precise prevention and control of fall armyworms by guiding management and decision-making and may facilitate meaningful reductions in pesticide application.

The fall armyworm (FAW) (Spodoptera frugiperda) (J. E. Smith) is a migratory pest that lacks diapause and has raised widespread concern in recent years due to its global dispersal and infestation. Seasonal environmental changes lead to its large-scale seasonal activities, and quantitative simulations of its dispersal patterns and spatiotemporal distribution facilitate integrated pest management. Based on remote sensing data and meteorological assimilation products, we constructed a mechanistic model of the dynamic distribution of FAW (FAW-DDM) by integrating weather-driven flight of FAW with host plant phenology and environmental suitability. The potential distribution of FAW in China from February to August 2020 was simulated. The results showed a significant linear relationship between the dates of the first simulated invasion and the first observed invasion of FAW in 125 cities (R² = 0.623; p < 0.001). From February to April, FAW was distributed in the Southwestern and Southern Mountain maize regions mainly due to environmental influences. From May to June, FAW spread rapidly, and reached the Huanghuaihai and North China maize regions between June to August. Our results can help in developing pest prevention and control strategies with data on specific times and locations, reducing the impact of FAW on food security.