Background/Objectives: Managing chronic respiratory diseases such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) within the Spanish Sistema Nacional de Salud (SNS) presents significant challenges, particularly due to their high prevalence and poor disease control rates—approximately 45.1% for asthma and 63.2% for COPD. This study aims to develop a novel predictive model using electronic health records (EHRs) to estimate the likelihood of poor disease control in these patients, thereby enabling more efficient management in primary care settings. Methods: The Seleida project employed a bioinformatics approach to identify significant clinical variables from EHR data in primary care centers in Seville and Valencia. Statistically significant variables were incorporated into a logistic regression model to predict poor disease control in patients with asthma and COPD patients. Key variables included the number of short-acting β-agonist (SABA) and short-acting muscarinic antagonist (SAMA) canisters, prednisone courses, and antibiotic courses over the past year. Results: The developed model demonstrated high accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity in predicting poorly controlled disease in both asthma and COPD patients. These findings suggest that the model could serve as a valuable tool for the early identification of at-risk patients, allowing healthcare providers to prioritize and optimize resource allocation in primary care settings. Conclusions: Integrating this predictive model into primary care practice could enhance the proactive management of asthma and COPD, potentially improving patient outcomes and reducing the burden on healthcare systems. Further validation in diverse clinical settings is warranted to confirm the model’s efficacy and generalizability.

Background/Objectives: Managing chronic respiratory diseases such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) within the Spanish Sistema Nacional de Salud (SNS) presents significant challenges, particularly due to their high prevalence and poor disease control rates—approximately 45.1% for asthma and 63.2% for COPD. This study aims to develop a novel predictive model using Electronic Health Records (EHR) to estimate the likelihood of poor disease control in these patients, thereby enabling more efficient management in primary care settings. Methods: The Seleida project employed a bioinformatics approach to identify significant clinical variables from EHR data in primary care centers in Seville and Valencia. Statistically significant variables were incorporated into a logistic regression model to predict poor disease control in patients with asthma and COPD patients. Key variables included the number of short-acting β-agonist (SABA) and short-acting muscarinic antagonist (SAMA) canisters, prednisone courses, and antibiotic courses over the past year. Results: The developed model demonstrated high accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity in predicting poorly controlled disease in both asthma and COPD patients. These findings suggest that the model could serve as a valuable tool for the early identification of at-risk patients, allowing healthcare providers to prioritize and optimize resource allocation in primary care settings. Conclusions: Integrating this predictive model into primary care practice could enhance the proactive management of asthma and COPD, potentially improving patient outcomes and reducing the burden on healthcare systems. Further validation in diverse clinical settings is warranted to confirm the model's efficacy and generalizability.

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains a leading global health burden. In primary care, the inconsistent availability of spirometry and symptom scores limits the detection of patients with poor disease control. There is a pressing need for scalable, data-driven tools that leverage routinely collected clinical information to support timely, equitable, and guideline-concordant interventions. Objective: This study aims to validate the performance of Seleida—a fully automated, deterministic, and bijective model for COPD control assessment and phenotyping—using real-world primary care data and to evaluate its feasibility for integration into electronic health record (EHR)–based informatics systems. Methods: Seleida estimates the probability of poor control ( Pr ) using two objective EHR variables: (1) annual dispensations of short-acting bronchodilators—specifically short-acting β2-agonists (SABA), short-acting muscarinic antagonists (SAMA), or both, and (2) number of dispensed antibiotic courses for bronchitis or COPD exacerbations. Its bijective structure supports both forward risk estimation and reverse phenotype inference. In a retrospective cohort of 106 patients, agreement was assessed between 2 phenotyping systems (a 126-combination model and a streamlined 21-combination version) and with clinician-assigned classifications. Due to sample size limitations, a provisional risk threshold of Pr >.50 was adopted for internal stratification. Results: Seleida showed perfect agreement between phenotyping systems (Cohen κ=1.00; P <.001) and substantial concordance with clinician-assigned profiles (Cohen κ=0.70; P <.001). The model operates transparently, without machine learning, and can be embedded into EHR platforms or applied manually using a visual framework. It enables individualized risk estimation, phenotype-driven treatment planning, and population-level case identification—particularly in settings with limited access to traditional diagnostic tools. Conclusions: Seleida provides a reproducible and interpretable framework for COPD control monitoring using high-frequency prescribing data. Its transparent logic, low data burden, and interoperability enable integration across diverse digital infrastructures, including resource-limited settings. By supporting both individualized care and population-level risk stratification, Seleida bridges predictive analytics with real-world clinical decision-making. Ongoing multicenter validation will determine its generalizability, clinical impact, and cost-effectiveness at scale.

Background and Objectives: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains a critical global health challenge, characterized by high morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs. Current guidelines may overlook patients who present with only one moderate exacerbation or with frequent short-acting beta-agonist (SABA) use. Building on findings from the Seleida study, this research refines the criteria for poor COPD control to include these patients, aiming to improve early identification of high-risk cases in primary care. Methods: A retrospectiveand multicenter study is conducted using data from 110 COPD patients in Spain. Poor control is redefined as having at least one moderate exacerbation or as using three or more SABA inhalers annually. Key predictors, such as SABA/short-acting muscarinic antagonist (SAMA) inhalers and antibiotic prescriptions, are identified using logistic regression and LASSO regularization to enhance predictive accuracy. Results: The model achieves a good predictive performance, with an AUC-ROC of 0.978, sensitivity of 92.86%, and specificity of 87.50%. Key predictors reliably identify high-risk patients, enabling timely interventions. This study demonstrates a statistically significant association between once-daily inhaler therapies and better COPD control compared to multiple daily doses, supported by chi-square analysis (p = 0.008) and binary logistic regression (p = 0.018). Nevertheless, the variable ‘daily inhalation frequency’ (1 vs. >1 inhalation/day) was excluded from the final model to prevent overfitting. Conclusions: By refining the criteria for COPD control to include patients with at least one moderate exacerbation or frequent SABA use, this model provides a practical tool for early risk stratification in primary care, particularly in resource-limited settings. Early identification of high-risk patients can reduce hospitalizations and healthcare costs, supporting a proactive approach to COPD management. Further validation in larger cohorts is essential to confirm its broader applicability.

Background and Objective: Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) remains a critical global health challenge, char-acterized by high morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs. Current guidelines may overlook pa-tients who present with only one moderate exacerbation or frequent short-acting beta-agonist (SABA) use. Building on findings from the Seleida study, this research refines the criteria for poor COPD control to include these patients, aiming to improve early identification of high-risk cases in primary care. Methods: A retrospective, multicenter study was conducted using data from 110 COPD patients in Spain. Poor control was redefined as having at least one moderate exacerbation or using three or more SABA inhalers annually. Key predictors, such as SABA/short-acting muscarinic antagonist (SAMA) inhalers and antibiotic prescriptions, were identified using logistic regression and LASSO regular-ization to enhance predictive accuracy. Results: The model demonstrated excellent predictive performance with an AUC-ROC of 0.978, sensitivity of 92.86%, and specificity of 87.50%. Key predictors effectively identified high-risk patients, facili-tating timely interventions. Although the variable ‘daily inhalation frequency’ (categorized as 1 vs. >1 inhalation/day) showed that patients using a single inhalation daily had significantly better control than those requiring multiple doses (p = 0.018), it was excluded to avoid model overfitting. Conclusions: By refining the criteria for COPD control to include patients with at least one moderate exacerbation or frequent SABA use, this model provides a practical tool for early risk stratification in primary care, particularly in resource-limited settings. Early identification of high-risk patients can reduce hospitalizations and healthcare costs, supporting a proactive approach to COPD management. Further validation in larger cohorts is essential to confirm its broader applicability.