Climate change-induced elevated temperatures and drought are considered to be serious threats to forest ecosystems worldwide, negatively affecting tree growth and viability. We studied nine European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) provenances located in two provenance trial plots with contrasting climates in Central Europe. Stomata play a vital role in the water balance of plants by regulating gaseous exchanges between plants and the atmosphere. Therefore, to explain the possible adaptation and acclimation of provenances to climate conditions, stomatal (stomatal density, the length of guard cells, and the potential conductance index) and leaf morphological traits (leaf size, leaf dry weight and specific leaf area) were assessed. The phenotypic plasticity index was calculated from the variability of provenances’ stomatal and leaf traits between the provenance plots. We assessed the impact of various climatic characteristics and derived indices (e.g., ecodistance) on intraspecific differences in stomatal and leaf traits. Provenances transferred to drier and warmer conditions acclimated through a decrease in stomatal density, the length of guard cells, potential conductance index, leaf size and leaf dry weight. The reduction in stomatal density and the potential conductance index was proportional to the degree of aridity difference between the climate of origin and conditions of the new site. Moreover, we found that the climate heterogeneity and latitude of the original provenance sites influence the phenotypic plasticity of provenances. Provenances from lower latitudes and less heterogeneous climates showed higher values of phenotypic plasticity. Furthermore, we observed a positive correlation between phenotypic plasticity and mortality in the arid plot but not in the more humid plot. Based on these impacts of the climate on stomatal and leaf traits of transferred provenances, we can improve the predictions of provenance reactions for future scenarios of global climate change.

The growth of seven exotic true fir (Abies) species and native Abies alba have been compared in three provenance trials in the Czech Republic, at the relatively advanced ages of 44, 38, and 35 years respectively. A clear differentiation is observable between the species. The closely related species group of A. alba and A. cephalonica appears rather heterogeneous in its phenotypic behavior. A. alba provenances show superiority, but also a high differentiation. Productivity of provenances of A. cephalonica fall behind A. alba; however A. cilicica and A. pinsapo provenances have shown total mortality. The high potential of A. grandis is confirmed by outstanding growth; provenances from the coastal plain in Washington State performed best. A. procera grows slower than A. grandis, but still faster than A. alba provenances. Health risks, extreme ecologic distances of transfer, trend shifts of growth rate, and rank change with age are uncertainties that require necessary caution when selecting provenances for importation. In recent years, public and institutional perceptions concerning the introduction of non-native tree species and provenances has shifted, and the practice is no longer seen as necessarily inappropriate.

Research Highlights: Data of advanced-age provenance tests were reanalyzed applying a new approach, to directly estimate the growth of populations at their original sites under individually generated future climates. The results revealed the high resilience potential of fir species. Background and Objectives: The growth and survival of silver fir under future climatic scenarios are insufficiently investigated at the xeric limits. The selective signature of past climate determining the current and projected growth was investigated to analyze the prospects of adaptive silviculture and assisted transfer of silver fir populations, and the introduction of non-autochthonous species. Materials and Methods: Hargreaves’ climatic moisture deficit was selected to model height responses of adult populations. Climatic transfer distance was used to assess the relative drought stress of populations at the test site, relating these to the past conditions to which the populations had adapted. ClimateEU and ClimateWNA pathway RCP8.5 data served to determine individually past, current, and future moisture deficit conditions. Besides silver fir, other fir species from South Europe and the American Northwest were also tested. Results: Drought tolerance profiles explained the responses of transferred provenances and predicted their future performance and survival. Silver fir displayed significant within-species differentiation regarding drought stress response. Applying the assumed drought tolerance limit of 100 mm relative moisture deficit, most of the tested silver fir populations seem to survive their projected climate at their origin until the end of the century. Survival is likely also for transferred Balkan fir species and for grand fir populations, but not for the Mediterranean species. Conclusions: The projections are less dramatic than provided by usual inventory assessments, considering also the resilience of populations. The method fills the existing gap between experimentally determined adaptive response and the predictions needed for management decisions. It also underscores the unique potential of provenance tests.