Due to poor road design, challenging terrain, and difficult geological conditions, traffic accidents on mountainous two-lane roads are more frequent and severe. This study aims to address the lack of understanding of key factors affecting accident severity with the goal of improving mountainous traffic safety, thereby contributing to sustainable transportation systems. The focus of this study is to compare the interpretability of model performances with three statistical models (Ordered Logit, Partial Proportional Odds Model, and Multinomial Logit) and six machine learning models (Decision Tree, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Extra Trees, AdaBoost, and XGBoost) on two-lane mountain roads in Yunnan Province, China. Additionally, we assessed the ability of these models to uncover underlying causal relationships, particularly how accident causes affect severity. Using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method, we interpreted the influence of risk factors in the machine learning models. Our findings indicate that machine learning models, especially XGBoost, outperform statistical models in predicting accident severity. The results highlight that accident patterns are the most significant determinants of severity, followed by road-related factors and the type of colliding vehicles. Environmental factors like weather, however, have minimal impact. Notably, vehicle falling, head-on collisions, and longitudinal slope sections are linked to more severe accidents, while minor accidents are more frequent on horizontal curve sections and areas that combine curves and slopes. These insights can help traffic management agencies develop targeted measures to reduce accident rates and enhance road safety, which is critical for promoting sustainable transportation in mountainous regions.

Unstable car-following behavior under truck-induced visual occlusion on mountainous two-lane roads significantly increases rear-end crash risk. However, compared with studies focusing on overtaking or curve risk prediction, the car-following-truck (CFT) risk and its influencing factors have received limited attention. Therefore, this study used unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to collect high-resolution trajectory data of CFT scenarios on both straight and curved segments under truck-induced occlusion. First, the CFT risk was quantified based on an anticipated collision time (ACT) indicator, a two-dimensional surrogate safety measure that accounts for vehicle acceleration variations. Then, extreme value theory (EVT) was applied to calibrate alignment-specific risk thresholds. Finally, an XGBoost-based risk identification model was developed using vehicle dynamics-related features, and feature importance analysis combined with partial dependence interpretability was conducted to obtain key influencing factors. The results show that the calibrated ACT thresholds are approximately 3.838 s for straight segments and 4.385 s for curved segments, providing a reliable basis for risk classification. In addition, the XGBoost-based risk identification achieved accuracies of 90.63% and 95.87% for straight and curved segments, respectively. Further analysis indicates that CFT distance was the contributing factor. Moreover, risk increases markedly within a 10–20 m range on straight segments, while it rises rapidly once spacing falls below about 10 m on curved segments. Speed and acceleration differences exhibited stronger amplifying effects under short-spacing conditions. These findings provide a micro-behavioral basis for safety management and intelligent driving applications on mountainous roads with high truck mixing rates, supporting safer and more sustainable traffic operations.