The synergistic interaction between landscape fragmentation and climate change poses a critical threat to tropical forests. However, the long-term dynamics of these coupled pressures have been little explored. This study analyzes half a century (1979–2023) of changes in landscape structure and climate across five coastal watersheds in Oaxaca, Mexico a region of high biological and socio-economic diversity. Using multitemporal satellite imagery (Corona, Orthophotos, RapidEye and Planet), we quantified the trajectories of tree cover, fragmentation (Largest Patch Index, LPI; Simpson’s Diversity Index, SIDI), and connectivity (Probability of Connectivity Index, PC); and contrasted these with temperature and precipitation trends. Our results reveal that during the period 1979–2010, there was a slight increase in tree cover accompanied by positive landscape metrics, whereas in the period 2010–2023 a loss of tree cover was observed. Nonetheless, overall, between 1979 and 2023, the analysis indicates a net gain of 59,725 ha of tree cover, a reduction in fragmentation (LPI increased by 26.33% and SIDI decreased by 0.23), and an improvement in connectivity (PC increased by 0.35). During the same period, the average annual temperature increased by 2.3 °C, and precipitation decreased by 219 mm annually. The study concludes that the system is undergoing a transition from a spatial configuration limitation to a climate-induced habitat quality limitation.

Los humedales son ecosistemas significativos para la vida en el planeta. En México varias culturas guardaron una relación estrecha y se beneficiaron de los servicios ecosistémicos que hasta nuestros días prestan los humedales; sin embargo, varios se encuentran amenazados por los cambios de uso de suelo, como es el caso de los humedales de Catazajá en Chiapas. Por lo anterior, se utilizó la técnica de percepción remota para analizar los cambios de uso del suelo y vegetación de los humedales del sistema lagunar de Catazajá para el período 2015-2023, con imágenes obtenidas de RapidEye y Sentinel 2A. El procesamiento de las imágenes se llevó a cabo con ArcMap 10.3, se realizó una clasificación supervisada de máxima verosimilitud para estimar seis áreas correspondientes a usos de suelo y vegetación del humedal: cuerpos de agua, cobertura vegetal, agricultura, suelo desnudo y pastizal, zona de inundación y zona urbana. De los resultados obtenidos se observa que, en un periodo de ocho años, principalmente las superficies de suelo desnudo y pastizal, y urbanas registraron una tasa de cambio anual positiva de 185% y 16.89% respectivamente. Mientras que las superficies de agricultura y cuerpos de agua registraron una tasa de cambio anual negativa de -3.37% y -3.19% respectivamente. El estudio concluye que, en el período analizado se observa un incremento significativo en el suelo desnudo y pastizal, y los destinados a la urbanización, y cierta ganancia en la cobertura vegetal. También se presenta una disminución de las superficies de agricultura, seguido de los cuerpos de agua mismas que se reflejan en la perdida de humedales.

Wetlands are significant ecosystems for life on the planet. In Mexico, several cultures have had a close relationship and benefited from the ecosystem services that wetlands provide to this day. However, several are threatened by changes in land use, as is the case of the Catazajáwetlands in Chiapas. Therefore, remote sensing techniques were used to analyze changes in land use and vegetation of the wetlands of the Catazajá lagoon system for the period 2015-2023, with images obtained from Sentinel 2AandRapidEye. The image processing was carried out with ArcMap 10.3, and a supervised maximum likelihood classification was performed to calculate the areas corresponding to the land uses: water bodies, vegetation cover, agriculture, bare soiland grassland, flood zone and urban zone. From the results obtained, it is observed that, in a period of eight years, mainly the surfaces of bare soiland grassland; and urban areas had a positive annual rate of change185% and 16.89% respectively. While the surfaces of agriculture andwater bodies had a negative annual rate of change-3.37% and -3.19% respectively. The study concludes that, in the period analyzed,there is asignificant increasein baresoiland grassland, urban areasand vegetal cover, and decrease in the areas ofagriculture, followed by water bodies, which is reflected in theloss of wetlands.