Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package-a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87-2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91-1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79-3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63-2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8-39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH.

The safe, highly effective measles vaccine has been recommended globally since 1974, yet in 2017 there were more than 17 million cases of measles and 83,400 deaths in children under 5 years old, and more than 99% of both occurred in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)^1–4. Globally comparable, annual, local estimates of routine first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) coverage are critical for understanding geographically precise immunity patterns, progress towards the targets of the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP), and high-risk areas amid disruptions to vaccination programmes caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)^5–8. Here we generated annual estimates of routine childhood MCV1 coverage at 5 × 5-km² pixel and second administrative levels from 2000 to 2019 in 101 LMICs, quantified geographical inequality and assessed vaccination status by geographical remoteness. After widespread MCV1 gains from 2000 to 2010, coverage regressed in more than half of the districts between 2010 and 2019, leaving many LMICs far from the GVAP goal of 80% coverage in all districts by 2019. MCV1 coverage was lower in rural than in urban locations, although a larger proportion of unvaccinated children overall lived in urban locations; strategies to provide essential vaccination services should address both geographical contexts. These results provide a tool for decision-makers to strengthen routine MCV1 immunization programmes and provide equitable disease protection for all children.

Antibiotic resistance (AR) is one of the major public health threats and challenges to effective containment and treatment of infectious bacterial diseases worldwide. Here, we used different methods to map out the geographical hot spots, sources, and evolutionary epidemiology of AR. Escherichia coli , Klebsiella pneumoniae , Salmonella enterica , Acinetobacter baumannii , Pseudomonas aeruginosa , Enterobacter spp., Neisseria meningitis/gonorrhoeae , Vibrio cholerae , Campylobacter jejuni , etc., were common pathogens shuttling AR genes in Africa. Transmission of the same clones/strains across countries and between animals, humans, plants, and the environment was observed. We recommend Enterobacter spp. or K. pneumoniae as better sentinel species for AR surveillance.

Background: Neonatal hypothermia is a global health problem and a major factor for neonatal morbidity and mortality, especially in low and middle-income countries. Therefore, this systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to assess the prevalence of neonatal hypothermia and its associated factors in Eastern Africa. Methods: We used the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines to search electronic databases (PubMed, Cochrane Library and Google Scholar; date of last search: 15 October 2019) for studies reporting the prevalence and associated factors of neonatal hypothermia. The data was extracted in the excel sheet considering prevalence, and categories of associated factors reported. A weighted inverse variance random-effects model was used to estimate the magnitude and the effect size of factors associated with hypothermia. The subgroup analysis was done by country, year of publication, and study design. Results: A total of 12 potential studies with 20,911 participants were used for the analysis. The pooled prevalence of neonatal hypothermia in East Africa was found to be 57.2% (95%CI; 39.5–75.0). Delay in initiation of breastfeeding (adjusted Odds Ratio(aOR) = 2.83; 95% CI: 1.40–4.26), having neonatal health problem (aOR = 2.68; 95% CI: 1.21–4.15), being low birth weight (aOR =2.16; 95%CI: 1.03–3.29), being preterm(aOR = 4.01; 95%CI: 3.02–5.00), and nighttime delivery (aOR = 4.01; 95% CI:3.02–5.00) were identified associated factors which significantly raises the risk of neonatal hypothermia. Conclusions: The prevalence of neonatal hypothermia in Eastern Africa remains high. Delay in initiation of breastfeeding, having a neonatal health problem, being low birth weight, preterm, and nighttime delivery were identified associated factors that significantly raises the risk of neonatal hypothermia.

Milk is a compensatory part of daily diet especially for the expectant mothers as well as growing children. It is virtually a sterile fluid when secreted into alveoli of udder. However, beyond this stage of production, microbial contamination might generally occur from different sources. A cross-sectional study was carried out from March 2013-January 2014 in Jigjiga city to assess bacterial contamination of raw milk meant for human consumption and to determine antimicrobial susceptibility patterns of the isolates. A total of 120 raw milk samples were aseptically collected from different sampling points that were hypothesized to be a source of potential contaminations. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 17 computer software. P-value of <0.05 was taken as statistical significance. Overall, the organisms identified and their prevalence rates were Escherichia coli 70(58 %), Staphylococcus aureus 29(24.2 %), Shigella Sp. 21 (17.5 %), Proteus sp. 9 (7.5 %) and Salmonella sp. 4 (3.3 %). The isolation rates of these identified bacteria from each sampling points are statistically significant in E. coli and Proteus sp. (P < 0.05). High antibiotic resistance for E. coli isolates were observed to Doxycycline (42.3 %) and Ampicillin (30 %). Shigella sp. was resistant to Ampicillin (38.1 %). Salmonella sp. isolates were highly resistant to Amoxicillin (50 %). Out of a total of 29 S.aureus isolates, high resistance rate was observed to penicillin G 27(93.1 %) followed by tetracycline 20(69 %), and very low level of resistance to vancomycin 2(6.9 %) and rifampicin 1(3.4 %). Multidrug resistance was also observed in 55.2 % of the total isolates. Considering the high rate of raw milk contamination with the above isolated bacteria, sanitary practice during collecting, transporting and vending is recommended since the consumption of unpasteurized milk may inflict an important public health risk.

Microbiological Safety of Street Vended Foods in Jigjiga City, Eastern Ethiopia