Background: Iron deficiency anemia (IDA) is highly prevalent in the Cote d’Ivoire and has severe health and economic consequences. In this paper, we apply a health economic model to quantify the burden of IDA, and the contribution of nationwide mandatory iron fortification of wheat flour and voluntary iron fortification of condiments to the reduction of this burden.Methods: The analysis for the population from 6 months to 64 years builds on published reviews and publicly available datasets and is stratified by age-groups and socioeconomic strata using comparative risk assessment model.Results: Without the impact of these fortification strategies, the annual burden of IDA is estimated at 242,100 disability adjusted life years (DALYs) and 978.1 million USD. Wheat flour and condiment fortification contributed to a reduction of the IDA burden by approximately 5% each.Conclusion: In places with high prevalence of malaria and other infectious diseases, such as the Côte D’Ivoire, food fortification as a nutritional intervention should be accompanied with infectious disease prevention and control. The findings of this study provide additional input for policy makers about the magnitude of the impact and can support the conception of future fortification strategies.

In Low and Lower-Middle-Income countries, the prevalence of anaemia in infancy remains high. In early childhood anaemia cause irreversible cognitive deficits and represents a higher risk of child mortality. The consequences of anaemia in infancy are a major barrier to overcome poverty traps. The aim of this study was to analyse, based on a multi-level approach, different factors associated with anaemia in children 6–23 months old based on recent available Standard Demographic Health Surveys (S-DHS). We identified 52 S-DHS that had complete information in all covariates of interest in our analysis between 2005 and 2015. We performed traditional logistic regressions and multilevel logistic regression analyses to study the association between haemoglobin concentrations and household, child, maternal, socio-demographic variables. In our sample, 70% of the 6–23 months-old children were anaemic. Child anaemia was strongly associated with maternal anaemia, household wealth, maternal education and low birth weight. Children fed with fortified foods, potatoes and other tubers had significantly lower rates of anaemia. Improving overall household living conditions, increasing maternal education, delaying childbearing and introducing iron rich foods at six months of age may reduce the likelihood of anaemia in toddlerhood.

The incidence of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus (GDM) is rising in all developed countries. This study aimed at assessing the short-term economic burden of GDM from the Italian healthcare system perspective. A model was built over the last pregnancy trimester (i.e., from the 28th gestational week until childbirth included). The National Hospital Discharge Database (2014) was accessed to estimate delivery outcome probabilities and inpatient costs in GDM and normal pregnancies (i.e., euglycemia). International Classification of Disease-9th Revision-Clinical Modification (ICD9-CM) diagnostic codes and Diagnosis-Related Group (DRG) codes were used to identify GDM cases and different types of delivery (i.e., vaginal or cesarean) within the database. Neonatal outcomes probabilities were estimated from the literature and included macrosomia, hypoglycemia, hyperbilirubinemia, shoulder dystocia, respiratory distress, and brachial plexus injury. Additional data sources such as regional documents, official price and tariff lists, national statistics and expert opinion were used to populate the model. The average cost per case was calculated at national level to estimate the annual economic burden of GDM. One-way sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulations were performed to quantify the uncertainty around base case results. The amount of pregnancies complicated by GDM in Italy was assessed at 54,783 in 2014 using a prevalence rate of 10.9%. The antenatal outpatient cost per case was estimated at €43.7 in normal pregnancies compared to €370.6 in GDM patients, which is equivalent to a weighted sum of insulin- (14%; €1034.6) and diet- (86%; €262.5) treated women’s costs. Inpatient delivery costs were assessed at €1601.6 and €1150.3 for euglycemic women and their infants, and at €1835.0 and €1407.7 for GDM women and their infants, respectively. Thus, the overall cost per case difference between GDM and normal pregnancies was equal to €817.8 (+ 29.2%), resulting in an economic burden of about €44.8 million in 2014 at national level. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis yielded a cost per case difference ranging between €464.9 and €1164.8 in 80% of simulations. The economic burden of GDM in Italy is substantial even accounting for short-term medical costs only. Future research also addressing long-term consequences from a broader societal perspective is recommended.

Worldwide approximately two billion people have a diet insufficient in micronutrients. Even in the developed world, an increasing number of people consume nutrient-poor food on a regular basis. Recent surveys in Western countries consistently indicate inadequate intake of nutrients such as vitamins and minerals, compared to recommendations. The International Osteoporosis Foundation’s (IOF) latest figures show that globally about 88% of the population does not have an optimal vitamin D status. The Lancet’s “Global Burden of Disease Study 2010” demonstrates a continued growth in life expectancy for populations around the world; however, the last decade of life is often disabled by the burden of partly preventable health issues. Compelling evidence suggests that improving nutrition protects health, prevents disability, boosts economic productivity and saves lives. Investments to improve nutrition make a positive contribution to long-term national and global health, economic productivity and stability, and societal resilience.

The global prevalence of obesity is rising rapidly, highlighting the importance of understanding risk factors related to the condition. Childhood obesity, which has itself become increasingly prevalent, is an important predictor of adulthood obesity. Studies suggest that the protein content consumed in infanthood is an important predictor of weight gain in childhood, which may contribute to higher body mass index (BMI). For instance, there is evidence that a lower protein infant formula (lpIF) for infants of overweight or obese mothers can offer advantages over currently-used infant formulas with regard to preventing excessive weight gain. The current study used health economic modelling to predict the long-term clinical and economic outcomes in Mexico associated with lpIF compared to a currently-used formula. A discrete event simulation was constructed to extrapolate the outcomes of trials on the use of formula in infanthood to changes in lifetime BMI, the health outcomes due to the changes in BMI and the healthcare system costs, productivity and quality of life impact associated with these outcomes. The model predicts that individuals who receive lpIF in infancy go on to have lower BMI levels throughout their lives, are less likely to be obese or develop obesity-related disease, live longer, incur fewer health system costs and have improved productivity. Simulation-based economic modelling suggests that the benefits seen in the short term, with the use of lpIF over a currently-used formula, could translate into considerable health and economic benefits in the long term. Modelling over such long timeframes is inevitably subject to uncertainty. Further research should be undertaken to improve the certainty of the model.

Objective To model the long-term cost-effectiveness of consuming milk powder fortified with potassium to decrease systolic blood pressure (SBP) and prevent cardiovascular events. Design A best case scenario analysis using a Markov model was conducted. Participants 8.67% of 50–79 year olds who regularly consume milk in China, including individuals with and without a prior diagnosis of hypertension. Intervention The model simulated the potential impact of a daily intake of two servings of milk powder fortified with potassium (+700 mg/day) vs the consumption of a milk powder without potassium fortification, assuming a market price equal to 0.99 international dollars (intl$; the consumption of a milk powder without potassium fortification, assuming a market price equal to intl$0.99 for the latter and to intl$1.12 for the first (+13.13%). Both deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the robustness of the results. Main outcome measures Estimates of the incidence of cardiovascular events and subsequent mortality in China were derived from the literature as well as the effect of increasing potassium intake on blood pressure. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was used to determine the cost-effectiveness of a milk powder fortified with potassium taking into consideration the direct medical costs associated with the cardiovascular events, loss of working days and health utilities impact. Results With an ICER equal to int$4711.56 per QALY (quality-adjusted life year) in the best case scenario and assuming 100% compliance, the daily consumption of a milk powder fortified with potassium shown to be a cost-effective approach to decrease SBP and reduce cardiovascular events in China. Healthcare savings due to prevention would amount to intl$8.41 billion. Sensitivity analyses showed the robustness of the results. Conclusion Together with other preventive interventions, the consumption of a milk powder fortified with potassium could represent a cost-effective strategy to attenuate the rapid rise in cardiovascular burden among the 50–79 year olds who regularly consume milk in China.