The prognosis of chronic heart failure (CHF) is extremely variable, although generally poor. The purpose of this study was to develop prognostic models for CHF patients. A cohort of 992 consecutive ambulatory CHF patients was prospectively followed for a median of 44 months. Multivariable Cox models were developed to predict all-cause mortality (n = 267), cardiac mortality (primary end-point, n = 213), pump-failure death (n = 123), and sudden death (n = 90). The four final models included several combinations of the same 10 independent predictors: prior atherosclerotic vascular event, left atrial size >26 mm/m², ejection fraction ≤35%, atrial fibrillation, left bundle-branch block or intraventricular conduction delay, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia and frequent ventricular premature beats, estimated glomerular filtration rate 1.000 ng/L, and troponin-positive. On the basis of Cox models, the MUSIC Risk scores were calculated. A cardiac mortality score >20 points identified a high-risk subgroup with a four-fold cardiac mortality risk. A simple score with a limited number of non-invasive variables successfully predicted cardiac mortality in a real-life cohort of CHF patients. The use of this model in clinical practice identifies a subgroup of high-risk patients that should be closely managed.

Background: A study was undertaken to evaluate the clinical efficacy of the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV) in immunocompetent patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Methods: A randomised controlled trial was carried out in 596 patients with COPD of mean (SD) age 65.8 (9.7) years, 298 of whom received PPV. The main outcome was radiographically proven community acquired pneumonia (CAP) of pneumococcal or unknown aetiology after a mean period of 979 days (range 20–1454). Results: There were 58 first episodes of CAP caused by pneumococcus or of unknown aetiology, 25 in the intervention group and 33 in the non-intervention group. Kaplan-Meier survival curves for CAP did not show significant differences between the intervention and non-intervention arms (log rank test = 1.15, p = 0.28) in the whole group of patients. The efficacy of PPV in all patients was 24% (95% CI −24 to 54; p = 0.333). In the subgroup aged <65 years the efficacy of PPV was 76% (95% CI 20 to 93; p = 0.013), while in those with severe functional obstruction (forced expiratory volume in 1 second <40%) it was 48% (95% CI −7 to 80; p = 0.076). In younger patients with severe airflow obstruction the efficacy was 91% (95% CI 35 to 99; p = 0.002). There were only five cases of non-bacteraemic pneumococcal CAP, all in the non-intervention group (log rank test = 5.03; p = 0.025). Multivariate analysis gave a hazard ratio for unknown and pneumococcal CAP in the vaccinated group, adjusted for age, of 0.20 (95% CI 0.06 to 0.68; p = 0.01). Conclusions: PPV is effective in preventing CAP in patients with COPD aged less than 65 years and in those with severe airflow obstruction. No differences were found among the other groups of patients with COPD.

With an estimated 12 million consumers in Europe, cocaine (COC) is the illicit drug leading to the most emergency department visits. The aim of this study was to examine a consecutive series of sudden deaths (SDs) to focus on the prevalence, the toxicological characteristics, and the causes of death in COC-related fatalities. Prospective case–control study of forensic autopsies was carried out in the time interval November 2003 to June 2006 at the Institute of Legal Medicine, Seville, south-west Spain, with a reference population of 1 875 462 inhabitants. Toxicology included blood ethanol analysis and blood and urine investigation for drugs of abuse and medical drugs. Autopsy was performed according to the European standardized protocol. Ten age- and sex-matched patients who died of violent causes with no antecedents of COC consumption and negative toxicology served as controls. During the study period, 2477 forensic autopsies were performed, including 1114 natural deaths. Among the latter, 668 fulfilled the criteria of SD and 21 (all males, mean age 34.6 ± 7.3 years) resulted to be COC-related (3.1%). Cocaine was detected in 67.1% of the blood (median 0.17 mg/L, interquartile range 0.08–0.42) and in 83.0% of the urine samples (median 1.15 mg/L, interquartile range 0.37–17.34). A concomitant use of ethanol was found in 76.0% and cigarette smoking in 81.0%. Causes of SD were cardiovascular in 62.0%, cerebrovascular in 14.0%, excited delirium in 14.0%, respiratory and metabolic in 5.0% each. Left ventricular hypertrophy was observed in 57.0%, small vessels disease in 42.9%, severe atherosclerotic coronary artery disease in 28.6%, and coronary thrombosis in 14.3%. Systematic toxicology investigation indicates that 3.1% of SDs are COC-related and are mainly due to cardio-cerebrovascular causes. Left ventricular hypertrophy, small vessel disease, and premature coronary artery atherosclerosis, with or without lumen thrombosis, are frequent findings that may account for myocardial ischaemia at risk of cardiac arrest in COC addicts.