The Selenga River basin is an important section of the Sino-Mongolian Economic Corridor. It is an important connecting piece of the Eurasian Continental Bridge and an important part of Northeast Asia. Against the background of the evolution of the geopolitical pattern since the disintegration of the Soviet Union and global warming, based on the land cover data in the Selenga River basin from 1992, 2000, 2009, and 2015, this paper describes the dynamic changes in land use in the basin. Through a logistic model, the driving factors of land cover change were revealed, and the CA-Markov model was used to predict the land cover pattern of 2027. The results showed that (1) from 1992 to 2015, the agricultural population in the Selenga River basin continued to decrease, which led to a reduction in agricultural sown area. The intensification of climate warming and drying had a significant impact on the spatial distribution of crops. Grassland expansion mostly occurred in areas with relatively abundant rainfall, low temperature, and low human activity. (2) The simulation results showed that, according to the current development trend, the construction land area of the Selenga River basin will be slightly expanded in 2027, the area of arable land and grassland will be slightly reduced, and the areas of forest, water/wetland, and bare land will remain stable. In the future, human activities in the basin will increase in the process of the construction of the China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor. Coupled with global warming, the land/cover of the basin will be affected by both man-made and natural disturbances, and attention should be paid to the possible risk of vegetation degradation.

Lake Baikal is located on the southern tableland of East Siberian Russia. The west coast of the lake has vast forest resources and excellent ecological conditions, and this area and the Mongolian Plateau constitute an important ecological security barrier in northern China. Land-use/cover change is an important manifestation of regional human activities and ecosystem evolution. This paper uses Irkutsk city, a typical city on the West Bank of Lake Baikal, as a case study area. Based on three phases of Landsat remote-sensing image data, the land-use/cover change pattern and change process are analyzed and the natural factors and socioeconomic factors are combined to reveal driving forces through the partial least squares regression (PLSR) model. The results show the following: (1) From 2005 to 2015, construction land expanded, and forestland was converted into construction land and woodland. In addition, grass land, bare land, and cultivated land were converted into construction land, and the woodland area increased. The annual changes in land use from 2005 to 2010 were dramatic and then slowed down from 2010 to 2015. (2) The main reasons for the change in land-use types were urban expansion and nonagricultural development caused by population migration. The process of urbanization from external populations to urban agglomeration and the process of reverse urbanization from a central urban population to urban suburbs jointly expanded urban construction land area. As a result, forestland, grass land and bare land areas on the outskirts of cities were continuously reduced. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, land privatization led to a decline in the farm economy, the emergence of agricultural land reclamation and urban expansion; in addition, the implementation of the “one-hectare land policy” intensified development in suburban areas, resulting in a reduction of forestland and grass land areas. The process of constructing the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor has intensified human activities in the region, and the prevention of drastic changes in land cover, coordination of human-land relations, and green development are necessary.