Housing prices are a topic of significant social concern, and public services are a crucial factor influencing migrants’ return intentions. Based on the China Labour Force Dynamics Survey and China Real Estate Index database from 2012 to 2018, this study adopts probit model to explore the influence mechanism of housing prices on migrants’ return intentions and the moderating effect of public services. The results indicate that housing prices have a significant positive impact on migrants’ return intentions, and the level of public services negatively moderates the relationship between housing prices and migrants’ return intentions. Moreover, employing an instrumental variable approach to address the endogeneity of housing prices, the modeling results provide robust evidence of the significant and heterogenous impact of housing prices on return intentions among migrants. In particular, the positive impact of housing prices is mainly concentrated among single urban migrants without housing. Additionally, public services negatively moderate the positive impact of housing prices on return intentions among single rural migrants without housing. By elucidating the correlation between housing prices, public services, and return intentions among migrants, this study offers recommendations for policymakers regarding migration issues in urban development.