Background: Currently, recommended pre-operative risk assessment models including the revised cardiac risk index (RCRI) are not very effective in predicting postoperative myocardial damage after non-elective surgery, especially for elderly patients. Aims: This study aimed to create a new risk prediction model to assess myocardial injury after non-cardiac surgery (MINS) in elderly patients and compare it with the RCRI, a well-known pre-operative risk prediction model. Materials and Methods: This retrospective study included 370 elderly patients who were over 65 years of age and had non-elective surgery in a tertiary hospital. Each patient underwent detailed physical evaluations before the surgery. The study cohort was divided into two groups: patients who had MINS and those who did not. Results: In total, 13% (48 out of 370 patients) of the patients developed MINS. Multivariable analysis revealed that creatinine, lymphocyte, aortic regurgitation (moderate-severe), stroke, hemoglobin, ejection fraction, and D-dimer were independent determinants of MINS. By using these parameters, a model called “CLASHED” was developed to predict postoperative MINS. The ROC analysis comparison demonstrated that the new risk prediction model was significantly superior to the RCRI in predicting MINS in elderly patients undergoing non-elective surgery (AUC: 0.788 vs. AUC: 0.611, p < 0.05). Conclusions: Our study shows that the new risk preoperative model successfully predicts MINS in elderly patients undergoing non-elective surgery. In addition, this new model is found to be superior to the RCRI in predicting MINS.
1 November 2021 in Revista da Associação Médica Brasileira
Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) constitute a significant portion of hip fracture patients, and both diseases tend to present more frequently in older age. Our goal was to evaluate the long-term mortality of patients with AF who were free from heart failure undergoing hip fracture surgery. This observational, retrospective study was done in a single research and training hospital setting. Hospital electronic health record data, National Health Registry data, and National Death Registry System data for 233 consecutive patients who were above 65 years of age and were planned to undergo surgery for hip fracture were retrieved and analyzed. An experienced cardiologist evaluated the patients prior to surgery. Each member of the research cohort was categorized into one of the two groups based on their survival status (survivor and non-survivor groups). Of the 233 cases, 89 (38.2%) who were included in the investigation died during the follow-up period. The median long-term follow-up period was 34 (12-42) months. The frequency of AF was significantly higher in the non-survivor group. In multivariable Cox regression analysis, AF (HR: 2.195, 95%CI 1.365-3.415, p<0.001), advanced age, and blood urea level were determined as independent predictors for all-cause long-term mortality. AF is an independent predictor for long-term death in hip fracture cases above 65 years of age who were free from heart failure.
This study evaluates the association between the Intermountain Risk Score (IMRS) and coronary artery ectasia (CAE) to determine its predictive value. A retrospective study was conducted at a tertiary hospital from January 2019 to January 2024. A total of 446 patients (226 with CAE, 220 controls) were included. Clinical, laboratory, and angiographic data were analyzed. IMRS was calculated based on routine demographic and laboratory parameters. Statistical analyses included logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Patients with CAE had significantly higher IMRS scores (p = 0.011) and were more likely to fall into high-risk IMRS categories (p = 0.002). Smoking (HR: 3.744, p = 0.045), mean corpuscular volume (HR: 1.105, p = 0.019), and IMRS color category (HR: 5.255, p = 0.016) were independent predictors. ROC analysis showed an AUC of 0.617 for IMRS score and 0.627 for IMRS color category. IMRS is a significant predictor of CAE and may serve as a practical risk stratification tool. Higher-risk patients could benefit from closer monitoring and targeted interventions. Further validation in prospective studies is needed.
1 December 2021 in Revista da Associação Médica Brasileira