COVID-19 abatement strategies have risks and uncertainties which could lead to repeating waves of infection. We show—as proof of concept grounded on rigorous mathematical evidence—that periodic, high-frequency alternation of into, and out-of, lockdown effectively mitigates second-wave effects, while allowing continued, albeit reduced, economic activity. Periodicity confers (i) predictability, which is essential for economic sustainability, and (ii) robustness, since lockdown periods are not activated by uncertain measurements over short time scales. In turn—while not eliminating the virus—this fast switching policy is sustainable over time, and it mitigates the infection until a vaccine or treatment becomes available, while alleviating the social costs associated with long lockdowns. Typically, the policy might be in the form of 1-day of work followed by 6-days of lockdown every week (or perhaps 2 days working, 5 days off) and it can be modified at a slow-rate based on measurements filtered over longer time scales. Our results highlight the potential efficacy of high frequency switching interventions in post lockdown mitigation. All code is available on Github at https://github.com/V4p1d/FPSP_Covid19. A software tool has also been developed so that interested parties can explore the proof-of-concept system. Why? The design of post-lockdown mitigation policies while vaccines are still not available is pressing now as new secondary waves of the virus have emerged in many countries (for example, in Spain, France, UK, Italy, Israel, and others), and as several of these countries grapple with the reintroduction of full lockdown measures. What do we do and find? We propose efficacious and realisable methods based on control theory to tame the complex behaviour of COVID-19 in well mixed populations. We achieve this through a policy of fast intermittent lockdown intervals with regular period. We illustrate how our approach offers a fundamentally new perspective on ways to design COVID-19 exit strategies from policies of total lockdown. Our theoretical results are also very general and apply to a wide range of epidemiological models. What do these findings mean? Unlike many other proposed abatement strategies, which have risks and uncertainties possibly leading to multiple waves of infection, we demonstrate that our proposed policies have the potential to suppress the virus outbreak, while at the same time allowing continued economic activity. These policies, while of practical significance, are built on rigorous theoretical results, which are to the best of our knowledge, new in mathematical epidemiology. An extensive validation is carried out using a detailed epidemic model validated on real COVID-19 data from Italy and published very recently in Nature Medicine.

Adaptive traffic signal control (ATSC) is an effective method to reduce traffic congestion in modern urban areas. Many studies adopted various approaches to adjust traffic signal plans according to real-time traffic in response to demand fluctuations to improve urban network performance (e.g., minimise delay). Recently, learning-based methods such as reinforcement learning (RL) have achieved promising results in signal plan optimisation. However, adopting these self-learning techniques in future traffic environments in the presence of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) remains largely an open challenge. This study develops a real-time RL-based adaptive traffic signal control that optimises a signal plan to minimise the total queue length while allowing the CAVs to adjust their speed based on a fixed timing strategy to decrease total stop delays. The highlight of this work is combining a speed guidance system with a reinforcement learning-based traffic signal control. Two different performance measures are implemented to minimise total queue length and total stop delays. Results indicate that the proposed method outperforms a fixed timing plan (with optimal speed advisory in a CAV environment) and traditional actuated control, in terms of average stop delay of vehicle and queue length, particularly under saturated and oversaturated conditions.

Active Inference is a closed-loop computational theoretical basis for understanding behaviour, based on agents with internal probabilistic generative models that encode their beliefs about how hidden states in their environment cause their sensations. We review Active Inference and how it could be applied to model the human–computer interaction loop. Active Inference provides a coherent framework for managing generative models of humans, their environments, sensors and interface components. It informs off-line design and supports real-time, online adaptation. It provides model-based explanations for behaviours observed in HCI, and new conceptual tools with the potential to measure important concepts such as agency and engagement in interaction. We discuss how Active Inference offers a new basis for a theory of interaction in HCI, tools for design of modern, complex sensor-based systems, and integration of artificial intelligence technologies, enabling it to cope with diversity in human users and contexts. We discuss the practical challenges in implementing such Active Inference-based systems.

Recognizing complex activities is a challenging research problem, particularly in the presence of strong variability in the way activities are performed. Food preparation activities are prime examples, involving many different utensils and ingredients as well as high inter-person variability. Recognition models need to adapt to users in order to robustly account for differences between them. This paper presents three methods for user-adaptation: combining classifiers that were trained separately on generic and user-specific data, jointly training a single support vector machine from generic and user-specific data, and a weighted K-nearest-neighbor formulation with different probability mass assigned to generic and user-specific samples. The methods are evaluated on video and accelerometer data of people preparing mixed salads. A combination of generic and user-specific models considerably increased activity recognition accuracy and was shown to be particularly promising when data from only a limited number of training subjects was available.