The development of geothermal energy installations generates varied conflicts in Kenya that often escalate because of improper management. Yet, these developmental project conflict dynamics remain poorly understood. To better understand the dynamics of these conflicts, quantitative and qualitative data were collected from the Olkaria IV project-affected persons (PAPs) household heads using questionnaires, focus group discussions and key informant interviews. The qualitative data was arranged into socioeconomic, cultural, environmental and political themes and the proportion of respondents within each theme was calculated. The triggers for the conflicts included inadequate communication and participation in decision-making, unsatisfactory relocation logistics, and unfulfilled compensation promises. Also, the formulation and implementation of the resettlement action plan was inadequately negotiated with the PAPs. The effects of the conflicts on the PAPs’ livelihoods were severe. The conflicts were managed mainly through competition and avoidance strategies. Subsequent dissatisfaction on the part of the PAPs led to unrest that almost derailed the project. Planners need to be inclusive of the local community in the design of large development projects. Inclusiveness in planning would secure community buy-in, remove unrealistic pledges or expectations, and smoothen project implementation.

Montane forests are among the most critical terrestrial biodiversity reservoirs, acting as climate-regulating systems and water towers, and are vital for human well-being across the world. However, they are facing diverse, repeated, and contradictory challenges due to climate variability and change that may undermine their resilience. This study analyzed spatiotemporal trends in temperature and rainfall in the Aberdare Forest ecosystem, Kenya, over the past three decades (1994–2024). ERA5-Land (temperature, 9 km resolution) and CHIRPS-v3 (precipitation, 5 km resolution) provided the gridded climate datasets and were validated against observed station data from the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD). Trend detection utilized the non-parametric Mann–Kendall (MK) test, while Sen’s slope estimator quantified the magnitude and direction of change. Results show a statistically significant positive trend in temperature, while rainfall demonstrated a statistically non-significant positive trend over the study period. Spatial analysis revealed statistically significant warming across the forest, bamboo, and moorland ecological zones, while rainfall showed positive but non-significant trends, with the magnitude of both temperature and rainfall trends varying across zones. These findings provide robust empirical evidence of significant temporal and spatial warming with no clear corresponding directional change in rainfall, underscoring increasing climate pressures on the Aberdare Forest ecosystem. The results establish one of the first empirically validated long-term climate trend baselines for the Aberdare Forest ecosystem. This benchmark provides critical evidence to inform adaptive governance and responsive management for enhanced resilience of East Africa’s montane forests.