This research investigates the volatility of carbon prices in Guangdong’s emission trading market, a critical element of China’s broader climate strategy aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting sustainable development. This study applies ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) to analyze the complex interactions between carbon price fluctuations and various economic factors, including energy prices and environmental regulations. By decomposing the data, we identify key trends and cycles within the market, providing a clearer understanding of both short-term volatility and long-term market trends. Our findings reveal that regulatory policies play a pivotal role in shaping carbon market dynamics, with shifts in regulations leading to significant price volatility. Additionally, fluctuations in global energy prices, especially oil and coal, are found to have a considerable impact on carbon price movements, further complicating the market’s stability. This underscores the interconnected nature of the carbon trading market with broader economic and environmental factors, both domestic and international. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and market participants, underscoring the importance of stable carbon markets for promoting the transition to a low-carbon economy and achieving broader sustainability goals.

With the continuous evolution of international trade, the global market has been steadily expanding while also facing increasing challenges, particularly in relation to the introduction of environmental policies such as carbon barriers. Our research explores how China’s power battery manufacturers can adapt their export strategies to the EU’s carbon barrier policies. Additionally, we examine the roles of government regulations, research institutions, and manufacturers in either facilitating or hindering compliance with carbon reduction objectives. Using evolutionary game theory, we construct models involving government entities, manufacturers, and research institutions to systematically analyze market evolution, strategic interactions, and outcomes among these stakeholders. Our analysis focuses on understanding the competitive dynamics faced by exporting countries under stringent environmental policies and provides strategic insights to guide export strategies. Taking the EU’s carbon barrier policy as a case study, we explore Chinese battery manufacturers’ adaptive strategies and decision-making processes as they respond to shifting market demands and regulatory environments. The findings not only offer valuable insights into exporting countries but also provide policymakers with information on international trade and industrial policy design. Furthermore, we validate our model through numerical simulations and conduct sensitivity analyses on key parameters. The results underscore the importance of governmental adoption of punitive and incentive policies, revealing their substantial impact on stakeholder behavior. Additionally, the study highlights how participants’ pre-cooperation losses and post-cooperation gains influence participation rates and the speed at which stakeholder consensus is reached. By offering a novel approach with which to address carbon barrier challenges, this research contributes valuable perspectives on environmental regulations’ strategic and policy implications in global trade.