The impact of natural disasters on rural areas has recently increased, the question of how to effectively improve the livelihood resilience of rural residents has therefore become an essential issue. In this context, a livelihood resilience evaluation index system for rural residents was constructed in four dimensions: livelihood quality, livelihood promotion, livelihood provision, and disaster stress. A structural dynamics model was used to analyze the changing characteristics of the livelihood resilience of rural residents in China between the years 1980 and 2020, and a livelihood resilience trend from 2021 to 2030 was predicted based on the ARIMA model. The main factors influencing livelihood resilience were explored using ridge regression analysis. The results show that: (1) livelihood resilience of rural residents in China fluctuated significantly between 1980 and 2020, tending generally to increase; (2) livelihood resilience is positively correlated with livelihood quality, livelihood promotion, and livelihood provision, while it is negatively correlated with disaster stress; (3) livelihood quality, livelihood promotion, and livelihood supply will still increase between the years 2021 and 2030, while the increase of livelihood resilience will tend to slow down; and (4) six variables have a significant positive impact on livelihood resilience, and provide a basis for the subsequent enhancement of livelihood resilience.

In the context of high-quality urbanization, a key challenge for urban agglomerations is the structural mismatch between economic linkages and rapidly expanding information interactions, which may constrain the performance of coupled systems under shocks. Taking the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration as a case, we construct an inter-city economic network from cross-city corporate investment ties and an information network from online attention flows, and further derive an economic–information coupled network using a coupling-coordination framework. Using social network analysis and resilience assessment (hierarchy, assortativity, clustering, and disruption simulations), we compare network structures in 2013 and 2023 and evaluate how the structural gap shapes coupled resilience. Results show that (i) economic ties strengthen steadily but moderately, whereas the information network expands faster and becomes more inclusive, widening the structural gap between “virtual” and “material” flows; (ii) despite a persistently high correlation between the two layers, coordination declines, indicating increasing local divergence in link organization; and (iii) resilience improves overall, but differentiation remains: the information network gains robustness through decentralization and redundancy, while the economic network is more sensitive to targeted removals of core nodes, and the coupled network exhibits intermediate performance. These findings suggest that enhancing BTH resilience requires strengthening cross-jurisdictional redundant links and reducing excessive dependence on core corridors to better translate information interactions into balanced economic connectivity.

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