Background. Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) contributes to adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes. In recent decades, extensive research has been devoted to the early prediction of GDM by various methods. Machine learning methods are flexible prediction algorithms with potential advantages over conventional regression. Objective. The purpose of this study was to use machine learning methods to predict GDM and compare their performance with that of logistic regressions. Methods. We performed a retrospective, observational study including women who attended their routine first hospital visits during early pregnancy and had Down’s syndrome screening at 16-20 gestational weeks in a tertiary maternity hospital in China from 2013.1.1 to 2017.12.31. A total of 22,242 singleton pregnancies were included, and 3182 (14.31%) women developed GDM. Candidate predictors included maternal demographic characteristics and medical history (maternal factors) and laboratory values at early pregnancy. The models were derived from the first 70% of the data and then validated with the next 30%. Variables were trained in different machine learning models and traditional logistic regression models. Eight common machine learning methods (GDBT, AdaBoost, LGB, Logistic, Vote, XGB, Decision Tree, and Random Forest) and two common regressions (stepwise logistic regression and logistic regression with RCS) were implemented to predict the occurrence of GDM. Models were compared on discrimination and calibration metrics. Results. In the validation dataset, the machine learning and logistic regression models performed moderately (AUC 0.59-0.74). Overall, the GBDT model performed best (AUC 0.74, 95% CI 0.71-0.76) among the machine learning methods, with negligible differences between them. Fasting blood glucose, HbA1c, triglycerides, and BMI strongly contributed to GDM. A cutoff point for the predictive value at 0.3 in the GBDT model had a negative predictive value of 74.1% (95% CI 69.5%-78.2%) and a sensitivity of 90% (95% CI 88.0%-91.7%), and the cutoff point at 0.7 had a positive predictive value of 93.2% (95% CI 88.2%-96.1%) and a specificity of 99% (95% CI 98.2%-99.4%). Conclusion. In this study, we found that several machine learning methods did not outperform logistic regression in predicting GDM. We developed a model with cutoff points for risk stratification of GDM.

Excessive estrogen exposure is an important pathogenic factor in uterine endometrial cancer (UEC). Recent studies have reported the metabolic properties can influence the progression of UEC. However, the underlying mechanisms have not been fully elucidated. Glutaminase (GLS), MYC and autophagy levels were detected. The biological functions of estrogen-MYC-GLS in UEC cells (UECC) were investigated both in vivo and in vitro. Our study showed that estrogen remarkably increased GLS level through up-regulating c-Myc, and enhanced glutamine (Gln) metabolism in estrogen-sensitive UEC cell (UECC), whereas fulvestrant (an ER inhibitor antagonist) could reverse these effects. Estrogen remarkably promoted cell viability and inhibited autophagy of estrogen sensitive UECC. However, CB-839, a potent selective oral bioavailable inhibitor of both splice variants of GLS, negatively regulated Gln metabolism, and inhibited the effects of Gln and estrogen on UECC’s growth and autophagy in vitro and / or in vivo. CB-839 triggers autophagy and restricts growth of UEC by suppressing ER/Gln metabolism, which provides new insights into the potential value of CB-839 in clinical treatment of estrogen-related UEC.

Background: Early identification of patients who are at high risk of poor clinical outcomes is of great importance in saving the lives of patients with novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the context of limited medical resources. Objective: To evaluate the value of the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), calculated at hospital admission and in isolation, for the prediction of the subsequent presence of disease progression and serious clinical outcomes (e.g., shock, death). Methods: We designed a prospective cohort study of 352 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 between January 9 and February 26, 2020, in Yichang City, Hubei Province. Patients with an NLR equal to or higher than the cutoff value derived from the receiver operating characteristic curve method were classified as the exposed group. The primary outcome was disease deterioration, defined as an increase of the clinical disease severity classification during hospitalization (e.g., moderate to severe/critical; severe to critical). The secondary outcomes were shock and death during the treatment. Results: During the follow-up period, 51 (14.5%) patients’ conditions deteriorated, 15 patients (4.3%) had complicated septic shock, and 15 patients (4.3%) died. The NLR was higher in patients with deterioration than in those without deterioration (median: 5.33 vs. 2.14, P < 0.001), and higher in patients with serious clinical outcomes than in those without serious clinical outcomes (shock vs. no shock: 6.19 vs. 2.25, P < 0.001; death vs. survival: 7.19 vs. 2.25, P < 0.001). The NLR measured at hospital admission had high value in predicting subsequent disease deterioration, shock and death (all the areas under the curve > 0.80). The sensitivity of an NLR ≥ 2.6937 for predicting subsequent disease deterioration, shock and death was 82.0% (95% confidence interval, 69.0 to 91.0), 93.3% (68.0 to 100), and 92.9% (66.0 to 100), and the corresponding negative predictive values were 95.7% (93.0 to 99.2), 99.5% (98.6 to 100) and 99.5% (98.6 to 100), respectively. Conclusions: The NLR measured at admission and in isolation can be used to effectively predict the subsequent presence of disease deterioration and serious clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19.

Background: Folic acid (FA) supplementation is associated with a lower risk of the neural tube and heart defects and is recommended for women of childbearing age. Although there are detailed recommendations, differences in the initiation time and duration of FA supplementation remain poorly studied. Methods: A multicentre prospective study of 17,713 women was conducted. The incidence of congenital malformations in women taking a recommended dosage (e.g. 0.4 or 0.8 mg/day) of FA was compared with that in women without supplementation. The predicted probability of malformations by the initiation time and duration of FA use was estimated to determine optimal options. Results: Periconceptional FA supplementation was associated with a lower and insignificant risk of congenital malformations (1.59% vs. 2.37%; odds ratio [OR] 0.69; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.44–1.08), heart defects (3.8 vs. 8.0 per 1000 infants; OR, 0.47; 0.21–1.02), and neural tube defects (7.0 vs. 11.5 per 10,000 infants; OR, 0.64; 0.08–5.15). FA use after pregnancy provided greater protection against total malformations. Statistically significant associations were found in women who initiated FA supplementation in the first month of gestation (OR, 0.55; 95% CI: 0.33–0.91) and in those who supplemented for 1 to 2 months (OR, 0.59; 95% CI: 0.36–0.98). Similar results were found for heart defects. The optimal initiation time was 1.5 (optimal range: 1.1 to 1.9) months before pregnancy and a duration of 4.0 (3.7 to 4.4) months was reasonable to achieve the lowest risk of congenital malformations. Heart defect prevention required an earlier initiation (2.2 vs. 1.1 months before pregnancy) and a longer duration (4.7 vs. 3.7 months) than the prevention of other malformations. Conclusions: The timely initiation of FA supplementation for gestation was associated with a decreased risk of congenital malformations, which was mainly attributed to its protection against heart defects. The initiation of FA supplementation 1.5 months before conception with a duration of 4 months is the preferred option for congenital malformation prevention. Trial registration: Chictr.org.cn identifier: ChiCTR-SOC-17010976.