The transition to a sustainable bio‐based economy is perceived as a valid path towards low‐carbon development for emerging economies that have rich biomass resources. In the case of Colombia, the role of biomass has been tackled through qualitative roadmaps and regional climate policy assessments. However, neither of these approaches has addressed the complexity of the bio‐based economy systematically in the wider context of emission mitigation and energy and chemicals supply. In response to this limitation, we extended a bottom‐up energy system optimization model by adding a comprehensive database of novel bio‐based value chains. We included advanced road and aviation biofuels, (bio)chemicals, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and integrated biorefinery configurations. A scenario analysis was conducted for the period 2015–2050, which reflected uncertainties in the capacity for technological learning, climate policy ambitions, and land availability for energy crops. Our results indicate that biomass can play an important, even if variable, role in supplying 315–760 PJ/y of modern bio‐based products. In pursuit of a deep decarbonization trajectory, the large‐scale mobilization of biomass resources can reduce the cost of the energy system by up to 11 billion $/year, the marginal abatement cost by 62%, and the potential reliance on imports of oil and chemicals in the future. The mitigation potential of BECCS can reach 24–29% of the cumulative avoided emissions between 2015 and 2050. The proposed system analysis framework can provide detailed quantitative information on the role of biomass in low carbon development of emerging economies. © 2020 The Authors. Biofuels, Bioproducts, and Biorefining published by Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

The large-scale integration of variable renewable energy sources into the energy system presents techno–economic challenges. Long–term energy system optimization models fail to adequately capture these challenges because of the low temporal resolution of these tools. This limitation has often been addressed either by direct improvements within the long–term models or by coupling them to higher resolution power system models. In this study, a combined approach is proposed to capitalize on the advantages and overcome the disadvantages of both methods. First, the temporal resolution of an energy model was enhanced by approximating the joint probability of the electricity load and the supply of intermittent sources. Second, the projected electricity mix was simulated by a power model at an hourly resolution. This framework was used to analyze mid–century deep decarbonization trajectories for Colombia, subject to future uncertainties of hydroclimatic variability and the development of the bioeconomy. The direct integration method is found to consistently reduce the overestimation of the feasible penetration of VRES. However, its impact is marginal because of its inability to assess the short–term operation of the power system in detail. When combined with the soft–linking method, the reliable operation of the power system is shown to incur an additional overhead of 12–17% investment in flexible generation capacity, 2–5% of the annual energy system cost, and a 15–27% shortfall in achieving the aspired GHG mitigation target. The results obtained by combining both methods are found to be closer to the global optimum solution than using either of these methods individually.

The Colombian agricultural sector has the capacity and ambition to reduce its land use and GHG emissions through sustainable intensification of livestock production. However, an appraisal of the impact of achieving such goal on the availability of land to produce bioenergy crops remains lacking. Moreover, previous assessments of the role bioenergy in Colombia have mostly focused on residues, in isolation of land use policies.To address this gap, we propose a hybrid statistical land balancing and suitability allocation approach to estimate long term projections of the cost–supply potential of bioenergy crops and residues. Regionalized to the departmental level, this approach could provide higher resolution than global assessments, while avoiding the complexity of spatially explicit methods. We investigated three scenarios covering the uncertainty of socioeconomic drivers and agricultural and livestock productivity factors.Our results suggest that pursuing progressive land use policies (SSP1 scenario) could release up to 14 Mha of land by 2050, which could be available to produce perennial bioenergy crops. The cumulative potential of crops in SSP1 could reach up to 2,200 PJ, where about half of this potential could be attained at 7 $ GJ -1 or less. Potential supply centers could be identified in Orinoquía, Andean, and Caribbean regions for energy crops and the Pacific region for residues. Our findings indicate that there could be an opportunity to create synergy between the low carbon development strategies of the land use and energy sectors in Colombia.