Extreme financial events usually lead to sharp jumps in stock prices and volatilities. In addition, jump clustering and stock price correlations contribute to the risk amplification acceleration mechanism during the crisis. In this paper, four Jump-GARCH models are used to forecast the jump diffusion volatility, which is used as the risk factor. The linear and asymmetric nonlinear effects are considered, and the value at risk of banks is estimated by support vector quantile regression. There are three main findings. First, in terms of the volatility process of bank stock price, the Jump Diffusion GARCH model is better than the Continuous Diffusion GARCH model, and the discrete jump volatility is significant. Secondly, due to the difference of the sensitivity of abnormal information shock, the jump behavior of bank stock price is heterogeneous. Moreover, CJ-GARCH models are suitable for most banks, while ARJI-R2-GARCH models are more suitable for small and medium sized banks. Thirdly, based on the jump diffusion volatility information, the performance of the support vector quantile regression is better than that of the parametric quantile regression and nonparametric quantile regression.

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between the indicators for COVID-19 monitoring and the dynamic of jumps across six major financial markets including China, France, Italy, Germany, the UK, and the US. First, this paper finds that jumps occurred more frequently in the index returns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Second, the empirical findings suggest that the anxiety stemming from potential future control measures, which were prompted by updates in COVID-19 briefings, plays a significant role in explaining the jumps in index returns within financial markets. The strategies of ‘zero tolerance for COVID-19’, ‘maximum healthcare capacity’, and ‘less tolerance for restriction’ were carried out by China, European countries, and the US respectively. These diverse approaches to managing COVID-19 have a significant and varied impact on the market’s sudden price movements.