In light of the Paris Agreement, it is essential to identify regional impacts of half a degree additional global warming to inform climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. We investigate the effects of 1.5^°C and 2.0^°C global warming above pre-industrial conditions, relative to present day (2006–2015), over the Asian-Australian monsoon region (AAMR) using five models from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. There is considerable inter-model variability in projected changes to mean climate and extreme events in 2.0^°C and 1.5^°C scenarios. There is high confidence in projected increases to mean and extreme surface temperatures over AAMR, as well as more-frequent persistent daily temperature extremes over East Asia, Australia and northern India with an additional 0.5^°C warming, which are likely to occur. Mean and extreme monsoon precipitation amplify over AAMR, except over Australia at 1.5^°C where there is uncertainty in the sign of the change. Persistent daily extreme precipitation events are likely to become more frequent over parts of East Asia and India with an additional 0.5^°C warming. There is lower confidence in projections of precipitation change than in projections of surface temperature change. These results highlight the benefits of limiting the global-mean temperature change to 1.5^°C above pre-industrial, as the severity of the above effects increases with an extra 0.5^°C warming.

This study investigates the moisture sources that supply East Asian (EA) precipitation and their interannual variability. Moisture sources are tracked using the Water Accounting Model-2layers (WAM-2layers), based on the Eulerian framework. WAM-2layers is applied to five subregions over EA, driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis from 1979 to 2015. Due to differences in regional atmospheric circulation and in hydrological and topographic features, the mean moisture sources vary among EA subregions. The tropical oceanic source dominates southeastern EA, while the extratropical continental source dominates other EA subregions. The moisture sources experience large seasonal variations, due to the seasonal cycle of the EA monsoon, the freeze–thaw cycle of the Eurasian continent, and local moisture recycling over the Tibetan Plateau. The interannual variability of moisture sources is linked to interannual modes of the coupled ocean–atmosphere system. The negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation increases moisture transport to northwestern EA in winter by driving a southward shift in the midlatitude westerly jet over the Mediterranean Sea, the Black Sea, and the Caspian Sea. Atmospheric moisture lifetime is also reduced due to the enhanced westerlies. In summers following El Niños, an anticyclonic anomaly over the western North Pacific increases moisture supplied from the South China Sea to the southeastern EA and shortens the traveling distance. A stronger Somali Jet in summer increases moisture to the Tibetan Plateau and therefore increases precipitation over the eastern Tibetan Plateau. The methods and findings in this study can be used to evaluate hydrological features in climate simulations.