Data integrity is crucial for the performance and reliability analysis of photovoltaic (PV) systems, since actual in‐field measurements commonly exhibit invalid data caused by outages and component failures. The scope of this paper is to present a complete methodology for PV data processing and quality verification in order to ensure improved PV performance and reliability analyses. Data quality routines (DQRs) were developed to ensure data fidelity by detecting and reconstructing invalid data through a sequence of filtering stages and inference techniques. The obtained results verified that PV performance and reliability analyses are sensitive to the fidelity of data and, therefore, time series reconstruction should be handled appropriately. To mitigate the bias effects of 10% or less invalid data, the listwise deletion technique provided accurate results for performance analytics (exhibited a maximum absolute percentage error of 0.92%). When missing data rates exceed 10%, data inference techniques yield more accurate results. The evaluation of missing power measurements demonstrated that time series reconstruction by applying the Sandia PV Array Performance Model yielded the lowest error among the investigated data inference techniques for PV performance analysis, with an absolute percentage error less than 0.71%, even at 40% missing data rate levels. The verification of the routines was performed on historical datasets from two different locations (desert and steppe climates). The proposed methodology provides a set of standardized analytical procedures to ensure the validity of performance and reliability evaluations that are performed over the lifetime of PV systems.
Although common practice for estimating photovoltaic (PV) degradation rate (R $_D$ ) assumes a linear behavior, field data have shown that degradation rates are frequently nonlinear. This article presents a new methodology to detect and calculate nonlinear R $_D$ based on PV performance time-series from nine different systems over an eight-year period. Prior to performing the analysis and in order to adjust model parameters to reflect actual PV operation, synthetic datasets were utilized for calibration purposes. A change-point analysis is then applied to detect changes in the slopes of PV trends, which are extracted from constructed performance ratio ( $PR$ ) time-series. Once the number and location of change points is found, the ordinary least squares method is applied to the different segments to compute the corresponding rates. The obtained results verified that the extracted trends from the PR time-series may not always be linear and therefore, “nonconventional” models need to be applied. All thin-film technologies demonstrated nonlinear behavior whereas nonlinearity detected in the crystalline silicon systems is thought to be due to a maintenance event. A comparative analysis between the new methodology and other conventional methods demonstrated levelized cost of energy differences of up to 6.14%, highlighting the importance of considering nonlinear degradation behavior.
25 March 2021 in Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications
The IEA PVPS Task 13 group, experts who focus on photovoltaic performance, operation, and reliability from several leading R&D centers, universities, and industrial companies, is developing a framework for the calculation of performance loss rates of a large number of commercial and research photovoltaic (PV) power plants and their related weather data coming across various climatic zones. The general steps to calculate the performance loss rate are (i) input data cleaning and grading; (ii) data filtering; (iii) performance metric selection, corrections, and aggregation; and finally, (iv) application of a statistical modeling method to determine the performance loss rate value. In this study, several high‐quality power and irradiance datasets have been shared, and the participants of the study were asked to calculate the performance loss rate of each individual system using their preferred methodologies. The data are used for benchmarking activities and to define capabilities and uncertainties of all the various methods. The combination of data filtering, metrics (performance ratio or power based), and statistical modeling methods are benchmarked in terms of (i) their deviation from the average value and (ii) their uncertainty, standard error, and confidence intervals. It was observed that careful data filtering is an essential foundation for reliable performance loss rate calculations. Furthermore, the selection of the calculation steps filter/metric/statistical method is highly dependent on one another, and the steps should not be assessed individually.