Leonardo Aragão

Dr. Leonardo Aragão

orcid
Tracking cyclones to understand severe weather

Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

13Years (2014-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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1 August 2020 in Science of The Total Environment
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
Prashant KumarPrashant Kumar
Prashant Kumar
SDSisay E. Debele
Sisay E. Debele
JSJeetendra Sahani
Jeetendra Sahani
Leonardo AragãoLeonardo Aragão
Leonardo Aragão
FBFrancesca Barisani
Francesca Barisani
TZThomas Zieher
Thomas Zieher
Nature-based solutions (NBS) are being promoted as adaptive measures against predicted increasing hydrometeorological hazards (HMHs), such as heatwaves and floods which have already caused significant loss of life and economic damage across the globe. However, the underpinning factors such as policy framework, end-users' interests and participation for NBS design and operationalisation are yet to be established. We discuss the operationalisation and implementation processes of NBS by means of a novel concept of Open-Air Laboratories (OAL) for its wider acceptance. The design and implementation of environmentally, economically, technically and socio-culturally sustainable NBS require inter- and transdisciplinary approaches which could be achieved by fostering co-creation processes by engaging stakeholders across various sectors and levels, inspiring more effective use of skills, diverse knowledge, manpower and resources, and connecting and harmonising the adaptation aims. The OAL serves as a benchmark for NBS upscaling, replication and exploitation in policy-making process through monitoring by field measurement, evaluation by key performance indicators and building solid evidence on their short- and long-term multiple benefits in different climatic, environmental and socio-economic conditions, thereby alleviating the challenges of political resistance, financial barriers and lack of knowledge. We conclude that holistic management of HMHs by effective use of NBS can be achieved with standard compliant data for replicating and monitoring NBS in OALs, knowledge about policy silos and interaction between research communities and end-users. Further research is needed for multi-risk analysis of HMHs and inclusion of NBS into policy frameworks, adaptable at local, regional and national scales leading to modification in the prevalent guidelines related to HMHs. The findings of this work can be used for developing synergies between current policy frameworks, scientific research and practical implementation of NBS in Europe and beyond for its wider acceptance.

1 December 2019 in Science of The Total Environment
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
JSJeetendra Sahani
Jeetendra Sahani
Prashant KumarPrashant Kumar
Prashant Kumar
SDSisay Debele
Sisay Debele
CSChristos Spyrou
Christos Spyrou
Michael LoupisMichael Loupis
Michael Loupis
SSSilvana Di Sabatino
Silvana Di Sabatino

21 July 2023 in Weather and Climate Dynamics
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
EFEmmanouil Flaounas
Emmanouil Flaounas
Leonardo AragãoLeonardo Aragão
Leonardo Aragão
LBLisa Bernini
Lisa Bernini
SDStavros Dafis
Stavros Dafis
BDBenjamin Doiteau
Benjamin Doiteau
BZBaruch Ziv
Baruch Ziv
Many cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have been developed in the past to study the climatology of extratropical cyclones. However, all CDTMs have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This naturally leads to cyclone track climatologies with inconsistent physical characteristics. More than that, it is typical for CDTMs to produce a non-negligible number of tracks of weak atmospheric features, which do not correspond to large-scale or mesoscale vortices and can differ significantly between CDTMs. Lack of consensus in CDTM outputs and the inclusion of significant numbers of uncertain tracks therein have long prohibited the production of a commonly accepted reference dataset of extratropical cyclone tracks. Such a dataset could allow comparable results on the analysis of storm track climatologies and could also contribute to the evaluation and improvement of CDTMs. To cover this gap, we present a new methodological approach that combines overlapping tracks from different CDTMs and produces composite tracks that concentrate the agreement of more than one CDTM. In this study we apply this methodology to the outputs of 10 well-established CDTMs which were originally applied to ERA5 reanalysis in the 42-year period of 1979–2020. We tested the sensitivity of our results to the spatiotemporal criteria that identify overlapping cyclone tracks, and for benchmarking reasons, we produced five reference datasets of subjectively tracked cyclones. Results show that climatological numbers of composite tracks are substantially lower than the ones of individual CDTMs, while benchmarking scores remain high (i.e., counting the number of subjectively tracked cyclones captured by the composite tracks). Our results show that composite tracks tend to describe more intense and longer-lasting cyclones with more distinguished early, mature and decay stages than the cyclone tracks produced by individual CDTMs. Ranking the composite tracks according to their confidence level (defined by the number of contributing CDTMs), it is shown that the higher the confidence level, the more intense and long-lasting cyclones are produced. Given the advantage of our methodology in producing cyclone tracks with physically meaningful and distinctive life stages, we propose composite tracks as reference datasets for climatological research in the Mediterranean. The Supplement provides the composite Mediterranean tracks for all confidence levels, and in the conclusion we discuss their adequate use for scientific research and applications.

15 October 2021 in Climate Dynamics
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
Leonardo AragãoLeonardo Aragão
Leonardo Aragão
Federico Porcu'Federico Porcu'
Federico Porcu'
This study focuses on developing a new Cyclone Detection and Tracking Method (CDTM) to take advantage of the recent availability of a high-resolution reanalysis dataset of ECMWF ERA5. The proposed algorithm is used to perform a climatological analysis of the cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean Region (MR) into a 40-year window (1979–2018). The tuning of the new CDTM was based on the comparison with currently available CDTMs and verified through careful subjective analysis to fully exploit the finer details of MR cyclones features. The application of the new CDTM to the ERA5 high-resolution dataset resulted in an increase of 40% in the annual number of cyclones, mainly associated with subsynoptic and baroclinic driven lows. The main cyclogenetic areas and seasonal cycle were properly identified into the MR context, including areas often underestimated, such as the Aegean Sea, and emerging new ones with cyclogenetic potential such as the coast of Tunisia and Libya. The better cyclone features description defined three distinct periods of cyclonic activity in the MR with peculiar and persistent characteristics. In the first period (Apr–Jun), cyclones develop more frequently and present higher velocities and deepening rates. In the second (Jul–Sep), the cyclonic activity is governed by thermal lows spreading slowly over short tracks without reaching significant depths. In the last and longest season (Oct–Mar), cyclones become less frequent, but with the highest deepening rates and the lowest MSLP values, ranking this period as the most favourable to intense storms.

25 November 2022 in Environmental Research Letters
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
MPMarco Possega
Marco Possega
Leonardo AragãoLeonardo Aragão
Leonardo Aragão
PRPaolo Ruggieri
Paolo Ruggieri
MSMarco Antonio Santo
Marco Antonio Santo
SSSILVANA DI SABATINO
SILVANA DI SABATINO
A heatwave (HW) is a large-scale meteorological event characterised by persistent and extremely high-temperature condition. At the local scale, the urban heat island (UHI) is another thermal-related phenomenon defined as an urban area warmer than its surrounding regions due to different surfaces’ capabilities to absorb and store heat. However, the assessment about the effect produced on UHI by HW events is not homogeneous. Indeed, regarding the capability of HWs to influence the urban-rural temperature difference, several studies report different conclusions describing both an exacerbation and a reduction of UHI during HW events. In this context, the present study analyses in situ long records of temperature measurements (20 years) to provide observational shreds of evidence of UHI modification under HW conditions. We examine data from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset and World Meteorological Organization computing the UHI index (UHII) to quantify the UHI effect intensity in 37 European cities during the last 20 summers. The results show an UHII intensification for 28 of the 32 cities affected by positive UHI during extremely high temperatures at night, while substantial variations are not observed during the daytime. The time evolution of UHI during a HW highlights that a more significant and persistent urban-rural temperature gradient explains the UHI intensification. Finally, the relationship between the large and local-scale temperature phenomena reveals that continental high-temperature periods are often associated with prominent temperature differences between small-scale urban and rural environments, assessing the impact of large-scale features on thermal stress at the local scale.

2 February 2024 in Frontiers in Climate
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
LMLorenzo Mentaschi
Lorenzo Mentaschi
TLTomas Lovato
Tomas Lovato
MBMomme Butenschön
Momme Butenschön
JAJacopo Alessandri
Jacopo Alessandri
Leonardo AragãoLeonardo Aragão
Leonardo Aragão
NPNadia Pinardi
Nadia Pinardi
The Adriatic Sea hosts diverse marine ecosystems, characterized by rich biodiversity and unique ecological dynamics. Its intricate coastal habitats and open waters support a range of species and contribute to the region's ecological and economic significance. Unraveling the consequences of the ongoing climate changes on this delicate environment is essential to ensure the future safeguard of this basin. To tackle this problem, we developed a biogeochemical model for the entire basin, with a horizontal resolution of about 2 km and 120 vertical levels, forced by the projections of atmosphere, hydrology and ocean circulation between 1992 and 2050, under emission scenario RCP8.5. The changes projected between 2031–2050 and 1992–2011 were evaluated on ecoregions characterized by different trophic conditions, identified using a k-medoid classification technique. The results point toward a generalized oligotrophication of the basin, especially intense in the northern estuarine areas, driven by a substantial decrease in river discharge projected for the rivers of the Po Plain. This scenario of unproductive and declining resources, together with the ongoing warming, salinization, and acidification of marine waters, cast doubt on the long-term resilience of the Northern Adriatic food web structure, which has evolved to thrive in high trophic conditions. The outcome of this study provides the stakeholders with a tool to understand how potential long-term decreases in the regimes of the Northern Adriatic Rivers could affect the marine ecosystem and its goods and services in the future.