The interannual variations and the spatial distribution of rainfall in the Mediterranean and semi‐arid regions of Israel are analysed with respect to variations in the occurrence of the typical synoptic systems of the Eastern Mediterranean. The synoptic analysis is based on a daily, semi‐objective synoptic classification (Alpert et al., 2004a). The study covers the months November–March, in which 90% of the annual rainfall is obtained, mostly resulting from Cyprus lows. The interannual variations of the rainfall are well explained by the synoptic types, and the occurrences of Cyprus lows are highly correlated with the rainfall. It was found that the daily and seasonal rainfall are highly dependent on the depth of the cyclone. Moreover, deep lows are more effective for the mountainous regions, due both to the enhanced orographic effect and to the fact that stronger winds, associated with deep lows, are more efficient in transporting rain‐producing clouds from the Mediterranean Sea inland. The location of the cyclone determines the spatial distribution of the rain it produces over Israel. The cyclones located east of Cyprus were found productive mainly for the southern parts of the study region, while those located to the west and north of Israel were found productive for the north of the country. The high sensitivity of the rainfall to the location of the surface cyclones emphasizes the major role that lower level moisture transport plays in rain formation. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Dynamical systems metrics provide an informative qualitative estimate of eastern Mediterranean weather regimes predictability.

High‐resolution climate projections over Israel (about 8 km) have been obtained with the regional model COSMO‐CLM, nested into the CORDEX‐MENA simulations at 25 km resolution. This simulation provides high‐resolution spatial variability of total precipitation and precipitation intensity. Projections are presented not only in terms of average properties, but also using a subset of extreme temperature and precipitation indices from the standard Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) for the period 2041–2070 with respect to 1981–2010 (RCP4.5).A general increase in seasonal mean temperature is projected throughout the domain with peaks of ~2.5 °C, especially in winter and autumn. Extreme temperature indices show increases, larger in the minimum than in the maximum temperatures. Regarding total seasonal precipitation, decreases were found in the north and central Mediterranean climate parts of Israel, with reductions reaching ~40%, and increases of the same percentage in the most southern arid parts during winter and spring. An increase in precipitation intensity is shown mostly for the southern arid part of the region, with some indications of extremity also in the north. This spatial pattern probably results from a decrease in cyclones’ occurrences, which mainly influences the northern and central parts of Israel, and an increase in convective activity in the south.The outcome of this study can serve as a basis for priority setting and policy formulation towards better climate adaptation.