A wide range of evidences indicate climate change as one the greatest threats to biodiversity in the 21st century. The impacts of these changes, which may have already resulted in several recent species extinction, are species-specific and produce shifts in species phenology, ecological interactions, and geographical distributions. Here we used cutting-edge methods of species distribution models combining thousands of model projections to generate a complete and comprehensive ensemble of forecasts that shows the likely impacts of climate change in the distribution of all 55 marsupial species that occur in Brazil. Consensus projections forecasted range shifts that culminate with high species richness in the southeast of Brazil, both for the current time and for 2050. Most species had a significant range contraction and lost climate space. Turnover rates were relatively high, but vary across the country. We also mapped sites retaining climatic suitability. They can be found in all Brazilian biomes, especially in the pampas region, in the southern part of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, in the north of the Cerrado and Caatinga, and in the northwest of the Amazon. Our results provide a general overview on the likely effects of global climate change on the distribution of marsupials in the country as well as in the patterns of species richness and turnover found in regional marsupial assemblages.

Aim To analyse spatial trade-offs in conservation of mammals, considering benefits of biodiversity conservation and socioeconomic costs. Location Cerrado Biodiversity Hotspot, Brazil. Methods We built ecological niche models (ENMs) for 154 mammals inhabiting the cerrado. We combined model projections to produce consensus maps of species' distributions for three types of models (envelope, statistical and machine-learning models). We used these range summaries as input data in spatial prioritization analyses. We compared six conservation scenarios, considering human population density, land cost, anthropogenic land use, political willingness to act and the distribution of species using trade-off analyses. We complemented the current network of protected areas, aiming to achieve a target of 17% of land protection in the cerrado. Results Species-rich sites coincide with regions with high human population, high land cost, high anthropogenic land use and diverse levels of political willingness to act. We found a significant change in spatial priorities when we included socioeconomic and political dimensions in analyses: top-priority sites moved north, reduced by 68% potential conservation conflicts with human population, reduced by 72% the total monetary cost of actions and reduced by 68% conflict with other anthropogenic land uses. It also increased by 80% the beneficial effect of political willingness to act. Main conclusions Our results reinforce the idea that using only biological criteria for proposing spatial conservation priorities can undermine conservation plans given increases in socioeconomic and political conflicts.