Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has rapidly affected mortality worldwide¹. There is unprecedented urgency to understand who is most at risk of severe outcomes, and this requires new approaches for the timely analysis of large datasets. Working on behalf of NHS England, we created OpenSAFELY—a secure health analytics platform that covers 40% of all patients in England and holds patient data within the existing data centre of a major vendor of primary care electronic health records. Here we used OpenSAFELY to examine factors associated with COVID-19-related death. Primary care records of 17,278,392 adults were pseudonymously linked to 10,926 COVID-19-related deaths. COVID-19-related death was associated with: being male (hazard ratio (HR) 1.59 (95% confidence interval 1.53–1.65)); greater age and deprivation (both with a strong gradient); diabetes; severe asthma; and various other medical conditions. Compared with people of white ethnicity, Black and South Asian people were at higher risk, even after adjustment for other factors (HR 1.48 (1.29–1.69) and 1.45 (1.32–1.58), respectively). We have quantified a range of clinical factors associated with COVID-19-related death in one of the largest cohort studies on this topic so far. More patient records are rapidly being added to OpenSAFELY, we will update and extend our results regularly.

The frequency of, and risk factors for, long COVID are unclear among community-based individuals with a history of COVID-19. To elucidate the burden and possible causes of long COVID in the community, we coordinated analyses of survey data from 6907 individuals with self-reported COVID-19 from 10 UK longitudinal study (LS) samples and 1.1 million individuals with COVID-19 diagnostic codes in electronic healthcare records (EHR) collected by spring 2021. Proportions of presumed COVID-19 cases in LS reporting any symptoms for 12+ weeks ranged from 7.8% and 17% (with 1.2 to 4.8% reporting debilitating symptoms). Increasing age, female sex, white ethnicity, poor pre-pandemic general and mental health, overweight/obesity, and asthma were associated with prolonged symptoms in both LS and EHR data, but findings for other factors, such as cardio-metabolic parameters, were inconclusive.

Direct-acting antivirals have become widely used for patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection with decompensated cirrhosis. Virological responses are excellent and early improvements in liver function, at least in a proportion of patients, have been observed but the longer term impact of viral clearance on end-stage liver disease complications is unclear. Prospective study of patients with decompensated cirrhosis who received 12weeks of all-oral direct-acting antivirals through the English Expanded Access Programme. Endpoints were deaths, liver transplantation, hepatocellular carcinoma, serious decompensation events, sepsis or hospitalisations, and MELD scores between start of therapy to 15months post-treatment start. An untreated cohort of patients was retrospectively studied over 6months for comparison. Amongst 317/406 patients who achieved sustained virological response at 24weeks post-treatment, there were 9 deaths (3%), 17 new liver cancers (5%), 39 transplantations (12%) and 52 with serious decompensations (16%), over 15months. When compared to the first six months from treatment start and to untreated patients, there was a reduction in incidence of decompensations [30/406 (7%) in months 6-15 and 72/406 (18%) in months 0-6 for treated patients vs. 73/261 (28%) in untreated patients]. There was no significant difference in liver cancer incidence (10/406 (2.5%) in months 6-15 and 17/406 (4%) in months 0-6 for treated patients vs. 11/261 (4%) in untreated patients). This study suggests that antiviral therapy in patients with decompensated cirrhosis led to prolonged improvement in liver function, with no evidence of paradoxical adverse impact nor increase in liver malignancy. This is a report of a large group of patients in England who have hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection with advanced liver disease. They have been treated with new anti-HCV drugs, which cured the infection in the majority. This study looks at their outcomes a year following treatment, in terms of deaths, cancers and other complications of advanced liver disease. We conclude that in most patients anti-HCV treatment is beneficial even in advanced liver disease.

Background: Establishing who is at risk from a novel rapidly arising cause of death, and why, requires a new approach to epidemiological research with very large datasets and timely data. Working on behalf of NHS England we therefore set out to deliver a secure and pseudonymised analytics platform inside the data centre of a major primary care electronic health records vendor establishing coverage across detailed primary care records for a substantial proportion of all patients in England. The following results are preliminary. Data sources: Primary care electronic health records managed by the electronic health record vendor TPP, pseudonymously linked to patient-level data from the COVID-19 Patient Notification System (CPNS) for death of hospital inpatients with confirmed COVID-19, using the new OpenSAFELY platform. Population: 17,425,445 adults. Time period: 1st Feb 2020 to 25th April 2020. Primary outcome: Death in hospital among people with confirmed COVID-19. Methods: Cohort study analysed by Cox-regression to generate hazard ratios: age and sex adjusted, and multiply adjusted for co-variates selected prospectively on the basis of clinical interest and prior findings. Results: There were 5683 deaths attributed to COVID-19. In summary after full adjustment, death from COVID-19 was strongly associated with: being male (hazard ratio 1.99, 95%CI 1.88-2.10); older age and deprivation (both with a strong gradient); uncontrolled diabetes (HR 2.36 95% CI 2.18-2.56); severe asthma (HR 1.25 CI 1.08-1.44); and various other prior medical conditions. Compared to people with ethnicity recorded as white, black people were at higher risk of death, with only partial attenuation in hazard ratios from the fully adjusted model (age-sex adjusted HR 2.17 95% CI 1.84-2.57; fully adjusted HR 1.71 95% CI 1.44-2.02); with similar findings for Asian people (age-sex adjusted HR 1.95 95% CI 1.73-2.18; fully adjusted HR 1.62 95% CI 1.431.82). Conclusions: We have quantified a range of clinical risk factors for death from COVID-19, some of which were not previously well characterised, in the largest cohort study conducted by any country to date. People from Asian and black groups are at markedly increased risk of in-hospital death from COVID-19, and contrary to some prior speculation this is only partially attributable to pre-existing clinical risk factors or deprivation; further research into the drivers of this association is therefore urgently required. Deprivation is also a major risk factor with, again, little of the excess risk explained by co-morbidity or other risk factors. The findings for clinical risk factors are concordant with policies in the UK for protecting those at highest risk. Our OpenSAFELY platform is rapidly adding further NHS patients’ records; we will update and extend these results regularly.