The CyanobacteriaProchlorococcusandSynechococcusaccount for a substantial fraction of marine primary production. Here, we present quantitative niche models for these lineages that assess present and future global abundances and distributions. These niche models are the result of neural network, nonparametric, and parametric analyses, and they rely on >35,000 discrete observations from all major ocean regions. The models assess cell abundance based on temperature and photosynthetically active radiation, but the individual responses to these environmental variables differ for each lineage. The models estimate global biogeographic patterns and seasonal variability of cell abundance, with maxima in the warm oligotrophic gyres of the Indian and the western Pacific Oceans and minima at higher latitudes. The annual mean global abundances ofProchlorococcusandSynechococcusare 2.9 ± 0.1 × 10²⁷and 7.0 ± 0.3 × 10²⁶cells, respectively. Using projections of sea surface temperature as a result of increased concentration of greenhouse gases at the end of the 21st century, our niche models projected increases in cell numbers of 29% and 14% forProchlorococcusandSynechococcus, respectively. The changes are geographically uneven but include an increase in area. Thus, our global niche models suggest that oceanic microbial communities will experience complex changes as a result of projected future climate conditions. Because of the high abundances and contributions to primary production ofProchlorococcusandSynechococcus, these changes may have large impacts on ocean ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles.

Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation - May 2012

An important goal of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) research on the American monsoon systems is to determine the sources and limits of predictability of warm season precipitation, with emphasis on weekly to interannual time scales. This paper reviews recent progress in the understanding of the American monsoon systems and identifies some of the future challenges that remain to improve warm season climate prediction. Much of the recent progress is derived from complementary international programs in North and South America, namely, the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) and the Monsoon Experiment South America (MESA), with the following common objectives: 1) to understand the key components of the American monsoon systems and their variability, 2) to determine the role of these systems in the global water cycle, 3) to improve observational datasets, and 4) to improve simulation and monthly-to-seasonal prediction of the monsoons and regional water resources. Among the recent observational advances highlighted in this paper are new insights into moisture transport processes, description of the structure and variability of the South American low-level jet, and resolution of the diurnal cycle of precipitation in the core monsoon regions. NAME and MESA are also driving major efforts in model development and hydrologic applications. Incorporated into the postfield phases of these projects are assessments of atmosphere–land surface interactions and model-based climate predictability experiments. As CLIVAR research on American monsoon systems evolves, a unified view of the climatic processes modulating continental warm season precipitation is beginning to emerge.

Several sets of reference regions have been used in the literature for the regional synthesis of observed and modelled climate and climate change information. A popular example is the series of reference regions used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Adaptation (SREX). The SREX regions were slightly modified for the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC and used for reporting subcontinental observed and projected changes over a reduced number (33) of climatologically consistent regions encompassing a representative number of grid boxes. These regions are intended to allow analysis of atmospheric data over broad land or ocean regions and have been used as the basis for several popular spatially aggregated datasets, such as the Seasonal Mean Temperature and Precipitation in IPCC Regions for CMIP5 dataset. We present an updated version of the reference regions for the analysis of new observed and simulated datasets (including CMIP6) which offer an opportunity for refinement due to the higher atmospheric model resolution. As a result, the number of land and ocean regions is increased to 46 and 15, respectively, better representing consistent regional climate features. The paper describes the rationale for the definition of the new regions and analyses their homogeneity. The regions are defined as polygons and are provided as coordinates and a shapefile together with companion R and Python notebooks to illustrate their use in practical problems (e.g. calculating regional averages). We also describe the generation of a new dataset with monthly temperature and precipitation, spatially aggregated in the new regions, currently for CMIP5 and CMIP6, to be extended to other datasets in the future (including observations). The use of these reference regions, dataset and code is illustrated through a worked example using scatter plots to offer guidance on the likely range of future climate change at the scale of the reference regions. The regions, datasets and code (R and Python notebooks) are freely available at the ATLAS GitHub repository: https://github.com/SantanderMetGroup/ATLAS (last access: 24 August 2020), https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3998463 (Iturbide et al., 2020).

This paper reviews recent progress made in our understanding of the functioning and variability of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) on time scales varying from synoptic to long‐term variability and climate change. The SAMS contains one of the most prominent summertime climate patterns in South America, featuring a strong seasonal variability in a region lying between the Amazon and the La Plata Basin. Much of the recent progress is derived from complementary international programs, such as the Monsoon Experiment South America (MESA), as well as from ongoing international programs such as the Large Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in the Amazon Basin (LBA) and the La Plata Basin (LPB) Regional Hydroclimate Project, which includes the CLARIS LPB Europe‐South America Network for Climate Change Assessment and Impact Studies in La Plata Basin Project. The latter assesses atmosphere‐land surface interactions, the role of land use changes and aerosols from biomass burning considered as sources of variability and change in the SAMS functioning, characteristics and behaviour.The SAMS region is particularly susceptible to variations of climate due to the importance of hydroelectricity generation and the agricultural base of local economies. Also addressed in this report are projections of climate change and extremes, which are important for impact and vulnerability assessments. This discussion includes the need to identify and understand important processes that control the monsoonal climate, how these processes may vary and change, and how they may interact with key societal sectors, including water resource management, hydroelectric generation, agriculture, and agribusiness.This paper reports on the major contributions of MESA to the knowledge of characteristics, functioning and variability of the SAMS, and is based on recent studies and publications, and can be considered as an update of a previous review by C. S. Vera et al. (2006a). Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Moisture is transported in South America westward from the tropical Atlantic Ocean to the Amazon basin, and then southward toward the extratropics. A regional intensification of this circulation to the east of the Andes Mountains is called the South American low-level jet (SALLJ), with the strongest winds found over eastern Bolivia. SALLJ is present all year and channels moisture to the La Plata basin, which is analogous to the better-known Amazon basin in terms of its biological and habitat diversity, and far exceeds the latter in its economic importance to southern and central South America in terms of hydroelectricity and food production. The relatively small SALLJ spatial scale (compared with the density of the available sounding network) has a limited understanding of and modeling capability for any variations in the SALLJ intensity and structure as well as its possible relationship to downstream rainfall. The SALLJ Experiment (SALLJEX), aimed at describing many aspects of SALLJ, was carried... Abstract Moisture is transported in South America westward from the tropical Atlantic Ocean to the Amazon basin, and then southward toward the extratropics. A regional intensification of this circulation to the east of the Andes Mountains is called the South American low-level jet (SALLJ), with the strongest winds found over eastern Bolivia. SALLJ is present all year and channels moisture to the La Plata basin, which is analogous to the better-known Amazon basin in terms of its biological and habitat diversity, and far exceeds the latter in its economic importance to southern and central South America in terms of hydroelectricity and food production. The relatively small SALLJ spatial scale (compared with the density of the available sounding network) has a limited understanding of and modeling capability for any variations in the SALLJ intensity and structure as well as its possible relationship to downstream rainfall. The SALLJ Experiment (SALLJEX), aimed at describing many aspects of SALLJ, was carried...