The remaining carbon stocks in wet tropical forests are currently at risk because of anthropogenic deforestation, but also because of the possibility of release driven by climate change. To identify the relative roles of CO₂ increase, changing temperature and rainfall, and deforestation in the future, and the magnitude of their impact on atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, we have applied a dynamic global vegetation model, using multiple scenarios of tropical deforestation (extrapolated from two estimates of current rates) and multiple scenarios of changing climate (derived from four independent offline general circulation model simulations). Results show that deforestation will probably produce large losses of carbon, despite the uncertainty about the deforestation rates. Some climate models produce additional large fluxes due to increased drought stress caused by rising temperature and decreasing rainfall. One climate model, however, produces an additional carbon sink. Taken together, our estimates of additional carbon emissions during the twenty–first century, for all climate and deforestation scenarios, range from 101 to 367 Gt C, resulting in CO₂ concentration increases above background values between 29 and 129 p.p.m. An evaluation of the method indicates that better estimates of tropical carbon sources and sinks require improved assessments of current and future deforestation, and more consistent precipitation scenarios from climate models. Notwithstanding the uncertainties, continued tropical deforestation will most certainly play a very large role in the build–up of future greenhouse gas concentrations.

Wood density is a crucial variable in carbon accounting programs of both secondary and old‐growth tropical forests. It also is the best single descriptor of wood: it correlates with numerous morphological, mechanical, physiological, and ecological properties. To explore the extent to which wood density could be estimated for rare or poorly censused taxa, and possible sources of variation in this trait, we analyzed regional, taxonomic, and phylogenetic variation in wood density among 2456 tree species from Central and South America. Wood density varied over more than one order of magnitude across species, with an overall mean of 0.645 g/cm³. Our geographical analysis showed significant decreases in wood density with increasing altitude and significant differences among low‐altitude geographical regions: wet forests of Central America and western Amazonia have significantly lower mean wood density than dry forests of Central and South America, eastern and central Amazonian forests, and the Atlantic forests of Brazil; and eastern Amazonian forests have lower wood densities than the dry forests and the Atlantic forest. A nested analysis of variance showed that 74% of the species‐level wood density variation was explained at the genus level, 34% at the Angiosperm Phylogeny Group (APG) family level, and 19% at the APG order level. This indicates that genus‐level means give reliable approximations of values of species, except in a few hypervariable genera. We also studied which evolutionary shifts in wood density occurred in the phylogeny of seed plants using a composite phylogenetic tree. Major changes were observed at deep nodes (Eurosid 1), and also in more recent divergences (for instance in the Rhamnoids, Simaroubaceae, and Anacardiaceae). Our unprecedented wood density data set yields consistent guidelines for estimating wood densities when species‐level information is lacking and should significantly reduce error in Central and South American carbon accounting programs.

The production of aboveground soft tissue represents an important share of total net primary production in tropical rain forests. Here we draw from a large number of published and unpublished datasets (n=81 sites) to assess the determinants of litterfall variation across South American tropical forests. We show that across old-growth tropical rainforests, litterfall averages 8.61±1.91 Mg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ (mean ± standard deviation, in dry mass units). Secondary forests have a lower annual litterfall than old-growth tropical forests with a mean of 8.01±3.41 Mg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. Annual litterfall shows no significant variation with total annual rainfall, either globally or within forest types. It does not vary consistently with soil type, except in the poorest soils (white sand soils), where litterfall is significantly lower than in other soil types (5.42±1.91 Mg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹). We also study the determinants of litterfall seasonality, and find that it does not depend on annual rainfall or on soil type. However, litterfall seasonality is significantly positively correlated with rainfall seasonality. Finally, we assess how much carbon is stored in reproductive organs relative to photosynthetic organs. Mean leaf fall is 5.74±1.83 Mg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ (71% of total litterfall). Mean allocation into reproductive organs is 0.69±0.40 Mg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ (9% of total litterfall). The investment into reproductive organs divided by leaf litterfall increases with soil fertility, suggesting that on poor soils, the allocation to photosynthetic organs is prioritized over that to reproduction. Finally, we discuss the ecological and biogeochemical implications of these results.