Significance: We assessed the effects of air pollution and greenhouse gases on public health, climate, and the hydrologic cycle. We combined a global atmospheric chemistry–climate model with air pollution exposure functions, based on an unmatched large number of cohort studies in many countries. We find that fossil-fuel-related emissions account for about 65% of the excess mortality rate attributable to air pollution, and 70% of the climate cooling by anthropogenic aerosols. We conclude that to save millions of lives and restore aerosol-perturbed rainfall patterns, while limiting global warming to 2 °C, a rapid phaseout of fossil-fuel-related emissions and major reductions of other anthropogenic sources are needed.

Aims: Ambient air pollution is a major health risk, leading to respiratory and cardiovascular mortality. A recent Global Exposure Mortality Model, based on an unmatched number of cohort studies in many countries, provides new hazard ratio functions, calling for re-evaluation of the disease burden. Accordingly, we estimated excess cardiovascular mortality attributed to air pollution in Europe. Methods and results: The new hazard ratio functions have been combined with ambient air pollution exposure data to estimate the impacts in Europe and the 28 countries of the European Union (EU-28). The annual excess mortality rate from ambient air pollution in Europe is 790 000 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 645 000–934 000], and 659 000 (95% CI 537 000–775 000) in the EU-28. Between 40% and 80% are due to cardiovascular events, which dominate health outcomes. The upper limit includes events attributed to other non-communicable diseases, which are currently not specified. These estimates exceed recent analyses, such as the Global Burden of Disease for 2015, by more than a factor of two. We estimate that air pollution reduces the mean life expectancy in Europe by about 2.2 years with an annual, attributable per capita mortality rate in Europe of 133/100 000 per year. Conclusion: We provide new data based on novel hazard ratio functions suggesting that the health impacts attributable to ambient air pollution in Europe are substantially higher than previously assumed, though subject to considerable uncertainty. Our results imply that replacing fossil fuels by clean, renewable energy sources could substantially reduce the loss of life expectancy from air pollution.

We use the combined Dark Target/Deep Blue aerosol optical depth (AOD) satellite product of the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) collection 6 to study trends over the Middle East between 2000 and 2015. Our analysis corroborates a previously identified positive AOD trend over large parts of the Middle East during the period 2001 to 2012. We relate the annual AOD to precipitation, soil moisture and surface winds to identify regions where these attributes are directly related to the AOD over Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran. Regarding precipitation and soil moisture, a relatively small area in and surrounding Iraq turns out to be of prime importance for the AOD over these countries. Regarding surface wind speed, the African Red Sea coastal area is relevant for the Saudi Arabian AOD. Using multiple linear regression we show that AOD trends and interannual variability can be attributed to soil moisture, precipitation and surface winds, being the main factors controlling the dust cycle. Our results confirm the dust driven AOD trends and variability, supported by a decreasing MODIS-derived Ångström exponent and a decreasing AERONET-derived fine mode fraction that accompany the AOD increase over Saudi Arabia. The positive AOD trend relates to a negative soil moisture trend. As a lower soil moisture translates into enhanced dust emissions, it is not needed to assume growing anthropogenic aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions to explain the observations. Instead, our results suggest that increasing temperature and decreasing relative humidity in the last decade have promoted soil drying, leading to increased dust emissions and AOD; consequently an AOD increase is expected due to climate change.

We employ the recently developed worldline numerics, which combines string-inspired field theory methods with Monte Carlo techniques, to develop an algorithm for the computation of pair-production rates in scalar QED for inhomogeneous background fields. We test the algorithm with the classic Sauter potential, for which we compute the local production rate for the first time. Furthermore, we study the production rate for a superposition of a constant $E$ field and a spatially oscillating field for various oscillation frequencies. Our results reveal that the approximation by a local derivative expansion already fails for frequencies small compared to the electron-mass scale, whereas for strongly oscillating fields a derivative expansion for the averaged field represents an acceptable approximation. The worldline picture makes the nonlocal nature of pair production transparent and facilitates a profound understanding of this important quantum phenomenon.

We compute Casimir interaction energies for the sphere-plate and cylinder-plate configuration induced by scalar-field fluctuations with Dirichlet boundary conditions. Based on a high-precision calculation using world-line numerics, we quantitatively determine the validity bounds of the proximity-force approximation (PFA) on which the comparison between all corresponding experiments and theory are based. We observe the quantitative failure of the PFA on the 1% level for a curvature parameter $a/R>0.00755$. Even qualitatively, the PFA fails to predict reliably the correct sign of genuine Casimir curvature effects. We conclude that data analysis of future experiments aiming at a precision of 0.1% must no longer be based on the PFA.

We present improved worldline numerical algorithms for high-precision calculations of Casimir interaction energies induced by scalar-field fluctuations with Dirichlet boundary conditions for various Casimir geometries. Significant reduction of numerical cost is gained by exploiting the symmetries of the worldline ensemble in combination with those of the configurations. This facilitates high-precision calculations on standard PCs or small clusters. We illustrate our strategies using the experimentally most relevant sphere-plate and cylinder-plate configuration. We compute Casimir curvature effects for a wide parameter range, revealing the tight validity bounds of the commonly used proximity force approximation (PFA). We conclude that data analysis of future experiments aiming at a precision of 0.1% must no longer be based on the PFA. Revisiting the parallel-plate configuration, we find a mapping between the $D$-dimensional Casimir energy and properties of a random-chain polymer ensemble.