The Fall Armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, invaded China late in 2018 and was responsible for substantial crop losses, especially to maize. This work focuses on the suitability of climate across China for Fall Armyworm survival and spread. It uses climate metrics derived with guidance from experts to enable assessment of the risks posed by Fall Armyworm on maize production in different regions of China. The locations and time of year when temperature conditions are within a viable range for Fall Armyworm survival (minimum temperature higher than 9.7 $$^\circ$$ ∘ C and maximum temperature lower than 39.2 $$^\circ$$ ∘ C) are used to estimate the spatial distribution of winter breeding and overwintering zones, which helps understand the regions and timing of Fall Armyworm migration risk into northern maize production regions. In addition, meridional wind conditions across the Yangtze River basin area are assessed, and a metric of migration potential from the winter breeding and overwintering regions in the south towards northern regions with maize production is established. Results show that temperature during the winter months currently limits Fall Armyworm winter breeding populations to the very southern regions of China (and bordering countries to the south). However, due to the consistent timing and direction of the East Asian Summer Monsoon winds, the Fall Armyworm could easily be directed northwards to the Yangtze River basin during summer months with a peak in July. For this reason, pest management actions against the Fall Armyworm on summer maize should be taken.

Smallholder farmers are the mainstay of the agricultural economies of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where they produce several crops, predominantly centered on maize. Smallholder productivity remains limited resulting from a range of confounding factors, but a primary cause is loss from pests and diseases, particularly insects. To improve productivity, recommendations for the mitigation of crop loss globally include early-warning and management systems for in-season indigenous pests. There are many early-warning systems in temperate regions; however, such systems are poorly established in Africa. This is in part due to the need for a combination of pest modeling, data handling and dissemination infrastructure, capacity, and resource provision. While each of these components is progressing in Africa, the means to successfully deploy such systems remain limited. To bridge this, the development of the Pest Risk Information Service (PRISE) began in 2017 for farmers in SSA. Implemented in Kenya, Ghana, Malawi, and Zambia, PRISE developed temperature-driven phenology models for major maize, bean, and tomato pests. Using downscaled and processed Earth Observation data to drive the models, PRISE partnered with African national agencies to communicate pre- and in-season pest alerts that forecast the time to act against key insect pests. Alerts were designed to be integrated into country-specific Good Agricultural Practice (GAP) recommendations to provide a complementary package to agricultural stakeholders. End line studies with farmers showed that those who received information about the target crops including PRISE pest forecasts, generally reported better outcomes in terms of reduced losses and increased incomes compared with farmers who did not.

After many decades of effective control of stem rust caused by the Puccinia graminis f.sp. tritici, (hereafter Pgt) the reported emergence of race TTKSK/Ug99 of Pgt in Uganda reignited concerns about epidemics worldwide because ∼90% of world wheat cultivars had no resistance to the new race. Since it was initially detected in Uganda in 1998, Ug99 variants have now been identified in thirteen countries in Africa and the Middle East. Stem rust has been a major problem in the past, and concern is increasing about the risk of return to Central and East Asia. Whilst control programs in North America and Europe relied on the use of resistant cultivars in combination with eradication of barberry (Berberis spp.), the alternate host required for the stem rust pathogen to complete its full lifecycle, the focus in East Asia was principally on the use of resistant wheat cultivars. Here, we investigate potential airborne transmission pathways for stem rust outbreaks in the Middle East to reach East Asia using an integrated modelling framework combining estimates of fungal spore deposition from an atmospheric dispersion model, environmental suitability for spore germination, and crop calendar information. We consider the role of mountain ranges in restricting transmission pathways, and we incorporate a representation of a generic barberry species into the lifecycle. We find viable transmission pathways to East Asia from the Middle East to the north via Central Asia and to the south via South Asia and that an initial infection in the Middle East could persist in East Asia for up to three years due to the presence of the alternate host. Our results indicate the need for further assessment of barberry species distributions in East Asia and appropriate methods for targeted surveillance and mitigation strategies should stem rust incidence increase in the Middle East region.