Despite decades of research on plant drought tolerance, the physiological mechanisms by which trees succumb to drought are still under debate. We report results from an experiment designed to separate and test the current leading hypotheses of tree mortality. We show that piñon pine (Pinus edulis) trees can die of both hydraulic failure and carbon starvation, and that during drought, the loss of conductivity and carbohydrate reserves can also co‐occur. Hydraulic constraints on plant carbohydrate use determined survival time: turgor loss in the phloem limited access to carbohydrate reserves, but hydraulic control of respiration prolonged survival. Our data also demonstrate that hydraulic failure may be associated with loss of adequate tissue carbohydrate content required for osmoregulation, which then promotes failure to maintain hydraulic integrity.

Summary: Model–data comparisons of plant physiological processes provide an understanding of mechanisms underlying vegetation responses to climate. We simulated the physiology of a piñon pine–juniper woodland (Pinus edulis–Juniperus monosperma) that experienced mortality during a 5 yr precipitation‐reduction experiment, allowing a framework with which to examine our knowledge of drought‐induced tree mortality. We used six models designed for scales ranging from individual plants to a global level, all containing state‐of‐the‐art representations of the internal hydraulic and carbohydrate dynamics of woody plants. Despite the large range of model structures, tuning, and parameterization employed, all simulations predicted hydraulic failure and carbon starvation processes co‐occurring in dying trees of both species, with the time spent with severe hydraulic failure and carbon starvation, rather than absolute thresholds per se, being a better predictor of impending mortality. Model and empirical data suggest that limited carbon and water exchanges at stomatal, phloem, and below‐ground interfaces were associated with mortality of both species. The model–data comparison suggests that the introduction of a mechanistic process into physiology‐based models provides equal or improved predictive power over traditional process‐model or empirical thresholds. Both biophysical and empirical modeling approaches are useful in understanding processes, particularly when the models fail, because they reveal mechanisms that are likely to underlie mortality. We suggest that for some ecosystems, integration of mechanistic pathogen models into current vegetation models, and evaluation against observations, could result in a breakthrough capability to simulate vegetation dynamics. Contents Summary 305 I. Background 305 II. Model–experiment approach 306 III. Simulations of hydraulic failure and carbon starvation 310 IV. On thresholds vs duration of stress as drivers of mortality 311 V. Interdependence of hydraulic failure and carbon starvation 314 VI. Next‐generation, traditional, and empirical models 316 VII. A path forward 317 VIII. Conclusions 318 Acknowledgements 318 References 318

Non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs), the stored products of photosynthesis, building blocks for growth and fuel for respiration, are central to plant metabolism, but their measurement is challenging. Differences in methods and procedures among laboratories can cause results to vary widely, limiting our ability to integrate and generalize patterns in plant carbon balance among studies. A recent assessment found that NSC concentrations measured for a common set of samples can vary by an order of magnitude, but sources for this variability were unclear. We measured a common set of nine plant material types, and two synthetic samples with known NSC concentrations, using a common protocol for sugar extraction and starch digestion, and three different sugar quantification methods (ion chromatography, enzyme, acid) in six laboratories. We also tested how sample handling, extraction solvent and centralizing parts of the procedure in one laboratory affected results. Non-structural carbohydrate concentrations measured for synthetic samples were within about 11.5% of known values for all three methods. However, differences among quantification methods were the largest source of variation in NSC measurements for natural plant samples because the three methods quantify different NSCs. The enzyme method quantified only glucose, fructose and sucrose, with ion chromatography we additionally quantified galactose, while the acid method quantified a large range of mono- and oligosaccharides. For some natural samples, sugars quantified with the acid method were two to five times higher than with other methods, demonstrating that trees allocate carbon to a range of sugar molecules. Sample handling had little effect on measurements, while ethanol sugar extraction improved accuracy over water extraction. Our results demonstrate that reasonable accuracy of NSC measurements can be achieved when different methods are used, as long as protocols are robust and standardized. Thus, we provide detailed protocols for the extraction, digestion and quantification of NSCs in plant samples, which should improve the comparability of NSC measurements among laboratories.