Volcanic eruptions trigger ENSO response through shifts in the ITCZ and extratropical-to-tropical teleconnections.

The response of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to mid‐Holocene boundary conditions remains an open question: paleoclimate proxies and climate model simulations do not agree in the magnitude of the reduction of ENSO variability, while recent proxy evidence from fossil corals from the central Pacific show that the reduction in mid‐Holocene ENSO variability compared to the end of the twentieth century is not different from the reduction during other Holocene time intervals. This is inconsistent with the interpretation of lake and ocean sediment records from the eastern Pacific, which show a significant reduction compared to all other Holocene periods. In order to reconcile the seemingly conflicting proxy evidence from the eastern and central Pacific, we hypothesize that ENSO remained active during the mid‐Holocene; however, there was a change in the spatial pattern of the sea surface temperature anomalies, also known as ENSO flavors. Using National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Climate System Model version 4 forced with mid‐Holocene orbital conditions, we find that the frequency of occurrence of the strongest eastern Pacific (EP) events decreases in the mid‐Holocene and their variance is reduced by ∼30%, while the frequency of central Pacific (CP) events slightly increases and their variance does not change. We also find a shift in the seasonality of EP events, but not in that of CP events. Lastly, mid‐Holocene EP events develop more slowly and decay faster. The differential response of ENSO flavors to mid‐Holocene forcing is remotely forced by the West Pacific, where a weakening of the trade winds in early boreal spring in the mid‐Holocene initiates an anomalous downwelling annual Kelvin wave, which reaches the eastern Pacific during the ENSO development season, weakens the upper ocean stratification, and results in reduced ENSO upwelling feedback. The simulated reduction in the EP flavor versus the CP flavor in the mid‐Holocene is consistent with proxy evidence: The teleconnection patterns of the two flavors with temperature, precipitation, and salinity are distinct, and proxies from different regions of the Pacific might be recording variability associated with only one of the flavors, or some combination of their relative effects.

Zonal and meridional surface temperature gradients are considered to be determinants of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. However, there has been limited investigation of these gradients as diagnostic aids. Here, the twentieth-century variability in the Northern Hemisphere equator-to-pole temperature gradient (EPG) and the ocean–land temperature contrast (OLC) is explored. A secular trend in decreasing EPG and OLC is noted. Decadal and interannual (ENSO-related) variations in the joint distribution of EPG and OLC are identified, hinting at multistable climate states that may be indigenous to the climate or due to changing boundary forcings. The NH circulation patterns for cases in the tails of the joint distribution of EPG and OLC are also seen to be different. Given this context, this paper extends past efforts to develop insights into jet stream dynamics using the Lorenz-1984 model, which is forced directly and only by EPG and OLC. The joint probability distribution of jet stream and eddy energy, conditional on EPG and OLC scenarios, is investigated. The scenarios correspond to (i) warmer versus colder climate conditions and (ii) polarized ENSO phases. The latter scenario involves the use of a heuristic ENSO model to drive the Lorenz-1984 model via a modulation of the EPG or the OLC. As with GCMs, the low-order model reveals that the response to El Niño forcing is not similar to an anthropogenic warming signature. The potential uses of EPG and OLC as macro-level indicators of climate change and variability and for comparing results across GCMs and observations are indicated.