Temperate forests play a fundamental role in the provision, regulation, and support of hydrological environmental services, but they are subject to constant changes in land use (clearing, overgrazing, deforestation, and forest fires) that upset the hydrological balance. Through scenarios simulated with the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) hydrological model, the present study analyzes the effects of forest fires and land use changes on the hydrological balance in the microwatersheds of central Mexico. The land use changes that took place between 1995 and 2021 were estimated, and projections based on the current scenario were made. Two trend scenarios were proposed for 2047: one with a positive trend (forest permanence) and the other with a negative trend (loss of cover from forest fires). The results show that with permanence or an increase in forest area, the surface runoff would decrease by 48.2%, increasing the base flow by 37% and the soil moisture by 2.3%. If forest is lost, surface runoff would increase up to 454%, and soil moisture would decrease by 27%. If the current forest decline trends continue, then there will be negative alterations in hydrological processes: a reduction in the interception of precipitation by the canopy and an increase in the velocity and flow of surface runoff, among others. The final result will be a lower amount of water being infiltrated into the soil and stored in the subsoil. The provision of hydrological environmental services depends on the maintenance of forest cover.

Temperate forests are key to the balance and provision of hydrological and environmental services. Currently, these forests are subject to human alterations as well as to the effects of global change, including warming, variability, deforestation, and forest fires. As a consequence, the hydrological balance has been modified. The present study simulates the effects of climate change and land use change on the hydrological balance of micro-watersheds in Mexico using the hydrological model Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP). The land use change between 1995 and 2021 was estimated to establish a baseline. Climate scenario SSP585 was projected using three global models, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, and CNRM-CM6-1 by the 2081–2100 horizon, along with two scenarios of land use change: one with forest permanence and another with loss of forest cover and increased forest fires. Results indicate that future climatic conditions will modify the hydrological balance at the microbasin level. Even with positive conditions of forest permanence, increases in surface runoff of 124% (CNRM), 35% (HadGEM3), and 13% (MPI) are expected. The projections of coverage loss and fires showed surface runoff increases of 338% (CNRM), 188% (HadGEM3), and 143% (MPI). In the high areas of the microbasins where temperate forest predominates, climatic variations could be contained. If the forest is conserved, surface runoff decreases by −70% (CNRM), −87% (HadGEM3), and −89% (MPI). Likewise, the moisture in the soil increases. In areas with temperate forests, there will be modifications of the hydrological balance mainly due to the increase in evapotranspiration (due to the increase in temperature and precipitation). This will cause a significant decrease in flow and interflow. The alteration of these flows will decrease water availability in soil for infiltration. It is expected that the availability of hydrological and environmental services will be compromised in the entire study area due to climate change.

La producción de café y aguacate impulsa la economía agrícola de Huatusco, Veracruz, sin embargo, enfrenta desafíos como la roya y patógenos. Por lo que, el objetivo de la presente investigación es desarrollar una caracterización biofísica y descriptiva que permita analizar las condiciones ambientales, prácticas agrícolas y factores socioeconómicos que estén influyendo sobre la producción de ambos cultivos. Con lo anterior, se podrán desarrollar estrategias que optimicen la producción, promuevan la sostenibilidad y fomenten la resiliencia de productores. El método consistió en caracterizar a partir de cartografía los aspectos biofísicos, y la caracterización descriptiva se realizó a partir del análisis del conocimiento local y técnico sobre el manejo, problemáticas y acciones que están desarrollando para contrarrestar las afectaciones. Los resultados muestran que la producción de café bajo sombra abarca el 69 % de la superficie agrícola mientras que el aguacate 28 %. El aguacate, tiene buen desarrollo, aunque es afectado por patógenos y fluctuaciones de mercado. El café, enfrenta los desafíos latentes relacionados con la roya y la escasez de mano de obra que han incrementado los costos de producción. Con estos resultados se recomienda implementar estrategias de manejo: en aguacate se debe mejorar el manejo del suelo y el uso de riego por goteo; las variedades de café Colombia y Costa Rica siguen siendo productivas y resistentes a la roya, pero la sequía ha afectado la etapa de floración. Se requiere mejorar el manejo del suelo y agua, además de abordar la escasez de mano de obra que aumenta los costos de producción.

Objective: The objective of this study was to identify the factors that influence chayote production based on a biophysical and descriptive characterization. Design/methodology/approach: The method consisted of a biophysical characterization based on the analysis of land use and vegetation mapping, soil type, climate, relief and altitudinal range. The descriptive analysis focused on cultivation, agricultural techniques, adaptation to different biophysical conditions, pests, diseases and socioeconomic factors that influence production. Results: The results show that in the municipality of Coscomatepec chayote occupies 80% of the agricultural area. Currently, chayote is grown under adequate conditions of climate, slope and altitude, although it faces problems of water availability. The crop is susceptible to drought and requires irrigation. In some cases, the way irrigation is applied is inadequate and increases the risk of disease, mainly in clay soils. In addition, the lack of phytosanitary control and technological backwardness limit the crop's competitiveness. Limitations on study/implications: To deepen the economic analysis of the costs associated with the application of irrigation, evaluating its influence on crop yield and profitability. Findings/conclusions: To improve production and address current problems, it is recommended that efficient irrigation systems be implemented, water catchment works be built to reduce costs, drainage in clay soils be improved, and preventive phytosanitary control be promoted to ensure crop sustainability.