Kristen M. Foley

Kristen M. Foley

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Kristen M. Foley

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, North Carolina, USA

Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

19Years (2008-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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20 May 2021 in Geoscientific Model Development
Verified
Journal Article
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WAWyat Appel
Wyat Appel
JBJesse Bash
Jesse Bash
KFKathleen M. Fahey
Kathleen M. Fahey
KFKristen M. Foley
Kristen M. Foley
RGRobert C. Gilliam
Robert C. Gilliam
DWDavid C. Wong
David C. Wong
The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 5.3 (CMAQ53), released to the public in August 2019 and followed by version 5.3.1 (CMAQ531) in December 2019, contains numerous science updates, enhanced functionality, and improved computation efficiency relative to the previous version of the model, 5.2.1 (CMAQ521). Major science advances in the new model include a new aerosol module (AERO7) with significant updates to secondary organic aerosol (SOA) chemistry, updated chlorine chemistry, updated detailed bromine and iodine chemistry, updated simple halogen chemistry, the addition of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) chemistry in the CB6r3 chemical mechanism, updated M3Dry bidirectional deposition model, and the new Surface Tiled Aerosol and Gaseous Exchange (STAGE) bidirectional deposition model. In addition, support for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model's hybrid vertical coordinate (HVC) was added to CMAQ53 and the Meteorology-Chemistry Interface Processor (MCIP) version 5.0 (MCIP50). Enhanced functionality in CMAQ53 includes the new Detailed Emissions Scaling, Isolation and Diagnostic (DESID) system for scaling incoming emissions to CMAQ and reading multiple gridded input emission files. Evaluation of CMAQ531 was performed by comparing monthly and seasonal mean daily 8 h average (MDA8) O3 and daily PM2.5 values from several CMAQ531 simulations to a similarly configured CMAQ521 simulation encompassing 2016. For MDA8 O3, CMAQ531 has higher O3 in the winter versus CMAQ521, due primarily to reduced dry deposition to snow, which strongly reduces wintertime O3 bias (2–4 ppbv monthly average). MDA8 O3 is lower with CMAQ531 throughout the rest of the year, particularly in spring, due in part to reduced O3 from the lateral boundary conditions (BCs), which generally increases MDA8 O3 bias in spring and fall (∼0.5 µg m−3). For daily 24 h average PM2.5, CMAQ531 has lower concentrations on average in spring and fall, higher concentrations in summer, and similar concentrations in winter to CMAQ521, which slightly increases bias in spring and fall and reduces bias in summer. Comparisons were also performed to isolate updates to several specific aspects of the modeling system, namely the lateral BCs, meteorology model version, and the deposition model used. Transitioning from a hemispheric CMAQ (HCMAQ) version 5.2.1 simulation to a HCMAQ version 5.3 simulation to provide lateral BCs contributes to higher O3 mixing ratios in the regional CMAQ simulation in higher latitudes during winter (due to the decreased O3 dry deposition to snow in CMAQ53) and lower O3 mixing ratios in middle and lower latitudes year-round (due to reduced O3 over the ocean with CMAQ53). Transitioning from WRF version 3.8 to WRF version 4.1.1 with the HVC resulted in consistently higher (1.0–1.5 ppbv) MDA8 O3 mixing ratios and higher PM2.5 concentrations (0.1–0.25 µg m−3) throughout the year. Finally, comparisons of the M3Dry and STAGE deposition models showed that MDA8 O3 is generally higher with M3Dry outside of summer, while PM2.5 is consistently higher with STAGE due to differences in the assumptions of particle deposition velocities to non-vegetated surfaces and land use with short vegetation (e.g., grasslands) between the two models. For ambient NH3, STAGE has slightly higher concentrations and smaller bias in the winter, spring, and fall, while M3Dry has higher concentrations and smaller bias but larger error and lower correlation in the summer.

21 April 2017 in Geoscientific Model Development
Verified
Journal Article
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WAWyat Appel
Wyat Appel
SNSergey L. Napelenok
Sergey L. Napelenok
KFKristen M. Foley
Kristen M. Foley
HPHavala O. T. Pye
Havala O. T. Pye
CHChristian Hogrefe
Christian Hogrefe
JYJeffrey O. Young
Jeffrey O. Young
The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a comprehensive multipollutant air quality modeling system developed and maintained by the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Office of Research and Development (ORD). Recently, version 5.1 of the CMAQ model (v5.1) was released to the public, incorporating a large number of science updates and extended capabilities over the previous release version of the model (v5.0.2). These updates include the following: improvements in the meteorological calculations in both CMAQ and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model used to provide meteorological fields to CMAQ, updates to the gas and aerosol chemistry, revisions to the calculations of clouds and photolysis, and improvements to the dry and wet deposition in the model. Sensitivity simulations isolating several of the major updates to the modeling system show that changes to the meteorological calculations result in enhanced afternoon and early evening mixing in the model, periods when the model historically underestimates mixing. This enhanced mixing results in higher ozone (O3) mixing ratios on average due to reduced NO titration, and lower fine particulate matter (PM2. 5) concentrations due to greater dilution of primary pollutants (e.g., elemental and organic carbon). Updates to the clouds and photolysis calculations greatly improve consistency between the WRF and CMAQ models and result in generally higher O3 mixing ratios, primarily due to reduced cloudiness and attenuation of photolysis in the model. Updates to the aerosol chemistry result in higher secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentrations in the summer, thereby reducing summertime PM2. 5 bias (PM2. 5 is typically underestimated by CMAQ in the summer), while updates to the gas chemistry result in slightly higher O3 and PM2. 5 on average in January and July. Overall, the seasonal variation in simulated PM2. 5 generally improves in CMAQv5.1 (when considering all model updates), as simulated PM2. 5 concentrations decrease in the winter (when PM2. 5 is generally overestimated by CMAQ) and increase in the summer (when PM2. 5 is generally underestimated by CMAQ). Ozone mixing ratios are higher on average with v5.1 vs. v5.0.2, resulting in higher O3 mean bias, as O3 tends to be overestimated by CMAQ throughout most of the year (especially at locations where the observed O3 is low); however, O3 correlation is largely improved with v5.1. Sensitivity simulations for several hypothetical emission reduction scenarios show that v5.1 tends to be slightly more responsive to reductions in NOx (NO + NO2), VOC and SOx (SO2 + SO4) emissions than v5.0.2, representing an improvement as previous studies have shown CMAQ to underestimate the observed reduction in O3 due to large, widespread reductions in observed emissions.

29 June 2023 in Earth System Science Data
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Journal Article
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MCMonica Crippa
Monica Crippa
DGDiego Guizzardi
Diego Guizzardi
TBTim Butler
Tim Butler
TKTerry Keating
Terry Keating
RWRosa Wu
Rosa Wu
KFKristen Foley
Kristen Foley
This study, performed under the umbrella of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP), responds to the global and regional atmospheric modelling community's need of a mosaic emission inventory of air pollutants that conforms to specific requirements: global coverage, long time series, spatially distributed emissions with high time resolution, and a high sectoral resolution. The mosaic approach of integrating official regional emission inventories based on locally reported data, with a global inventory based on a globally consistent methodology, allows modellers to perform simulations of high scientific quality while also ensuring that the results remain relevant to policymakers. HTAP_v3, an ad hoc global mosaic of anthropogenic inventories, has been developed by integrating official inventories over specific areas (North America, Europe, Asia including Japan and South Korea) with the independent Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) inventory for the remaining world regions. The results are spatially and temporally distributed emissions of SO2, NOx, CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), NH3, PM10, PM2.5, black carbon (BC), and organic carbon (OC), with a spatial resolution of 0.1∘ × 0.1∘ and time intervals of months and years, covering the period 2000–2018 (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7516361, Crippa, 2023, https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset_htap_v3, last access: June 2023). The emissions are further disaggregated into 16 anthropogenic emitting sectors. This paper describes the methodology applied to develop such an emission mosaic, reports on source allocation, differences among existing inventories, and best practices for the mosaic compilation. One of the key strengths of the HTAP_v3 emission mosaic is its temporal coverage, enabling the analysis of emission trends over the past 2 decades. The development of a global emission mosaic over such long time series represents a unique product for global air quality modelling and for better-informed policymaking, reflecting the community effort expended by the TF-HTAP to disentangle the complexity of transboundary transport of air pollution.

2 March 2023 in Data in Brief
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
KFKristen M. Foley
Kristen M. Foley
GPGeorge A. Pouliot
George A. Pouliot
AEAlison Eyth
Alison Eyth
MAMichael Aldridge
Michael Aldridge
CAChristine Allen
Christine Allen
EAElizabeth Adams
Elizabeth Adams
The United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) has developed a set of annual North American emissions data for multiple air pollutants across 18 broad source categories for 2002 through 2017. The sixteen new annual emissions inventories were developed using consistent input data and methods across all years. When a consistent method or tool was not available for a source category, emissions were estimated by scaling data from the EPA's 2017 National Emissions Inventory with scaling factors based on activity data and/or emissions control information. The emissions datasets are designed to support regional air quality modeling for a wide variety of human health and ecological applications. The data were developed to support simulations of the EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality model but can also be used by other regional scale air quality models. The emissions data are one component of EPA's Air Quality Time Series Project which also includes air quality modeling inputs (meteorology, initial conditions, boundary conditions) and outputs (e.g., ozone, PM2.5 and constituent species, wet and dry deposition) for the Conterminous US at a 12 km horizontal grid spacing.

30 September 2022 in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Verified
Journal Article
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SBSarah E. Benish
Sarah E. Benish
JBJesse Bash
Jesse Bash
KFKristen M. Foley
Kristen M. Foley
KAK. Wyat Appel
K. Wyat Appel
CHChristian Hogrefe
Christian Hogrefe
GPGeorge Pouliot
George Pouliot
Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) compounds from human activity has greatly declined in the United States (US) over the past several decades in response to emission controls set by the Clean Air Act. While many observational studies have investigated spatial and temporal trends of atmospheric deposition, modeling assessments can provide useful information over areas with sparse measurements, although they usually have larger horizontal resolutions and are limited by input data availability. In this analysis, we evaluate wet, dry, and total N and S deposition from multiyear simulations within the contiguous US (CONUS). Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model estimates from the EPA's (Environmental Protection Agency) Air QUAlity TimE Series (EQUATES) project contain important model updates to atmospheric deposition algorithms compared to previous model data, including the new Surface Tiled Aerosol and Gaseous Exchange (STAGE) bidirectional deposition model which contains land-use-specific resistance parameterization and land-use-specific deposition estimates needed to estimate the differential impacts of N deposition to different land use types. First, we evaluate model estimates of wet deposition and ambient concentrations, finding underestimates of SO4, NO3, and NH4 wet deposition compared to National Atmospheric Deposition Program observations and underestimates of NH4 and SO4 and overestimates of SO2 and TNO3 (HNO3+NO3) compared to the Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET) ambient concentrations. Second, a measurement–model fusion approach employing a precipitation and bias correction to wet-deposition estimates is found to reduce model bias and improve correlations compared to the unadjusted model values. Model agreement of wet deposition is poor over parts of the West and Northern Rockies, due to errors in precipitation estimates caused by complex terrain and uncertainty in emissions at the relatively coarse 12 km grid resolution used in this study. Next, we assess modeled N and S deposition trends across climatologically consistent regions in the CONUS. Total deposition of N and S in the eastern US is larger than the western US with a steeper decreasing trend from 2002–2017; i.e., total N declined at a rate of approximately −0.30 kg N ha−1 yr−1 in the Northeast and Southeast and by −0.02 kg N ha−1 yr−1 in the Northwest and Southwest. Widespread increases in reduced N deposition across the Upper Midwest, Northern Rockies, and West indicate evolving atmospheric composition due to increased precipitation amounts over some areas, growing agricultural emissions, and regional NOx/SOx emission reductions shifting gas–aerosol partitioning; these increases in reduced N deposition are generally masked by the larger decreasing oxidized N trend. We find larger average declining trends of total N and S deposition between 2002–2009 than 2010–2017, suggesting a slowdown of the rate of decline likely in response to smaller emission reductions. Finally, we document changes in the modeled total N and S deposition budgets. The average annual total N deposition budget over the CONUS decreases from 7.8 in 2002 to 6.3 kg N ha−1 yr−1 in 2017 due to declines in oxidized N deposition from NOx emission controls. Across the CONUS during the 2002–2017 time period, the average contribution of dry deposition to the total N deposition budget drops from 60 % to 52 %, whereas wet deposition dominates the S budget rising from 45 % to 68 %. Our analysis extends upon the literature documenting the growing contribution of reduced N to the total deposition budget, particularly in the Upper Midwest and Northern Rockies, and documents a slowdown of the declining oxidized N deposition trend, which may have consequences on vegetation diversity and productivity.

4 May 2023 in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
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Journal Article
Open access
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HPHavala O. T. Pye
Havala O. T. Pye
BPBryan K. Place
Bryan K. Place
BMBenjamin N. Murphy
Benjamin N. Murphy
KSKarl M. Seltzer
Karl M. Seltzer
EDEmma L. D'Ambro
Emma L. D'Ambro
WSWilliam R. Stockwell
William R. Stockwell
Chemical mechanisms describe the atmospheric transformations of organic and inorganic species and connect air emissions to secondary species such as ozone, fine particles, and hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) like formaldehyde. Recent advances in our understanding of several chemical systems and shifts in the drivers of atmospheric chemistry warrant updates to mechanisms used in chemical transport models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system. This work builds on the Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism version 2 (RACM2) and develops the Community Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Multiphase Mechanism (CRACMM) version 1.0, which demonstrates a fully coupled representation of chemistry leading to ozone and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) with consideration of HAPs. CRACMMv1.0 includes 178 gas-phase species, 51 particulate species, and 508 reactions spanning gas-phase and heterogeneous pathways. To support estimation of health risks associated with HAPs, nine species in CRACMM cover 50 % of the total cancer and 60 % of the total non-cancer emission-weighted toxicity estimated for primary HAPs from anthropogenic and biomass burning sources in the US, with the coverage of toxicity higher (> 80 %) when secondary formaldehyde and acrolein are considered. In addition, new mechanism species were added based on the importance of their emissions for the ozone, organic aerosol, or atmospheric burden of total reactive organic carbon (ROC): sesquiterpenes, furans, propylene glycol, alkane-like low- to intermediate-volatility organic compounds (9 species), low- to intermediate-volatility oxygenated species (16 species), intermediate-volatility aromatic hydrocarbons (2 species), and slowly reacting organic carbon. Intermediate- and lower-volatility organic compounds were estimated to increase the coverage of anthropogenic and biomass burning ROC emissions by 40 % compared to current operational mechanisms. Autoxidation, a gas-phase reaction particularly effective in producing SOA, was added for C10 and larger alkanes, aromatic hydrocarbons, sesquiterpenes, and monoterpene systems including second-generation aldehydes. Integrating the radical and SOA chemistry put additional constraints on both systems and enabled the implementation of previously unconsidered SOA pathways from phenolic and furanone compounds, which were predicted to account for ∼ 30 % of total aromatic hydrocarbon SOA under typical atmospheric conditions. CRACMM organic aerosol species were found to span the atmospherically relevant range of species carbon number, number of oxygens per carbon, and oxidation state with a slight high bias in the number of hydrogens per carbon. In total, 11 new emitted species were implemented as precursors to SOA compared to current CMAQv5.3.3 representations, resulting in a bottom-up prediction of SOA, which is required for accurate source attribution and the design of control strategies. CRACMMv1.0 is available in CMAQv5.4.