Unraveling the drivers controlling community assembly is a central issue in ecology. Although it is generally accepted that selection, dispersal, diversification and drift are major community assembly processes, defining their relative importance is very challenging. Here, we present a framework to quantitatively infer community assembly mechanisms by phylogenetic bin-based null model analysis (iCAMP). iCAMP shows high accuracy (0.93–0.99), precision (0.80–0.94), sensitivity (0.82–0.94), and specificity (0.95–0.98) on simulated communities, which are 10–160% higher than those from the entire community-based approach. Application of iCAMP to grassland microbial communities in response to experimental warming reveals dominant roles of homogeneous selection (38%) and ‘drift’ (59%). Interestingly, warming decreases ‘drift’ over time, and enhances homogeneous selection which is primarily imposed on Bacillales. In addition, homogeneous selection has higher correlations with drought and plant productivity under warming than control. iCAMP provides an effective and robust tool to quantify microbial assembly processes, and should also be useful for plant and animal ecology.

Understanding the community assembly mechanisms controlling biodiversity patterns is a central issue in ecology. Although it is generally accepted that both deterministic and stochastic processes play important roles in community assembly, quantifying their relative importance is challenging. Here we propose a general mathematical framework to quantify ecological stochasticity under different situations in which deterministic factors drive the communities more similar or dissimilar than null expectation. An index, normalized stochasticity ratio (NST), was developed with 50% as the boundary point between more deterministic (50%) assembly. NST was tested with simulated communities by considering abiotic filtering, competition, environmental noise, and spatial scales. All tested approaches showed limited performance at large spatial scales or under very high environmental noise. However, in all of the other simulated scenarios, NST showed high accuracy (0.90 to 1.00) and precision (0.91 to 0.99), with averages of 0.37 higher accuracy (0.1 to 0.7) and 0.33 higher precision (0.0 to 1.8) than previous approaches. NST was also applied to estimate stochasticity in the succession of a groundwater microbial community in response to organic carbon (vegetable oil) injection. Our results showed that community assembly was shifted from more deterministic (NST = 21%) to more stochastic (NST = 70%) right after organic carbon input. As the vegetable oil was consumed, the community gradually returned to be more deterministic (NST = 27%). In addition, our results demonstrated that null model algorithms and community similarity metrics had strong effects on quantifying ecological stochasticity. Significance An ecological community is a dynamic complex system with a myriad of interacting species, which are controlled by various scale-dependent deterministic and stochastic forces. With rapid advances in genomics technologies, categorizing biological diversity, particularly microbial diversity, becomes relatively easy, but the great challenge is to disentangle the mechanisms controlling biological diversity. The general null model-based framework developed in this study provides an effective and robust tool to ecologists for quantitatively assessing ecological stochasticity. By highlighting the caveats such as model selection, similarity metrics, and spatial scales, this study provides guidance for appropriate use of null model-based approaches for examining community assembly processes. Although this framework was tested with microbial data, it should also be applicable to plant and animal ecology.