The variability in obtaining estimates of tsunami inundation and runup on a near‐real‐time tsunami hazard assessment setting is evaluated. To this end, 19 different source models of the Maule Earthquake were considered as if they represented the best available knowledge an early tsunami warning system could consider. Results show that large variability can be observed in both coseismic deformation and tsunami variables such as inundated area and maximum runup. This suggests that using single source model solutions might not be appropriate unless categorical thresholds are used. Nevertheless, the tsunami forecast obtained from aggregating all source models is in good agreement with observed quantities, suggesting that the development of seismic source inversion techniques in a Bayesian framework or generating stochastic finite fault models from a reference inversion solution could be a viable way of dealing with epistemic uncertainties in the framework of nearly‐real‐time tsunami hazard mapping.
Early inhabitants along the hyperarid coastal Atacama Desert in northern Chile developed resilience strategies over 12,000 years, allowing these communities to effectively adapt to this extreme environment, including the impact of giant earthquakes and tsunamis. Here, we provide geoarchaeological evidence revealing a major tsunamigenic earthquake that severely affected prehistoric hunter-gatherer-fisher communities ~3800 years ago, causing an exceptional social disruption reflected in contemporary changes in archaeological sites and triggering resilient strategies along these coasts. Together with tsunami modeling results, we suggest that this event resulted from a ~1000-km-long megathrust rupture along the subduction contact of the Nazca and South American plates, highlighting the possibility of Mw ~9.5 tsunamigenic earthquakes in northern Chile, one of the major seismic gaps of the planet. This emphasizes the necessity to account for long temporal scales to better understand the variability, social effects, and human responses favoring resilience to socionatural disasters.
The plate interface beneath the Mejillones Peninsula in Northern Chile is characterized by anomalous seismogenic behaviors, with seismic and aseismic slip, and low coupling values. We analyze this zone through the seismicity pattern and a 3‐D tomography model. We identify high VP/VS values within the oceanic crust and in the lower continental crust, which we interpret as hydrated zones rich in fluids. These zones are correlated with the Mejillones fracture zone and with highly permeable lithologies of the lower continental crust, which allow a greater accumulation of fluids at the plate interface beneath the Mejillones Peninsula. Additionally, these areas exhibit a high rate of seismicity and concentrated swarms and repeaters. We propose that the presence of fluids controls the anomalous seismogenic behavior along the plate interface beneath the Mejillones Peninsula.